2022 Browns Advisory Novices (3m) Chase - ex RSA

[Rooster Booster]

No idea.
Probably not far off.
I don't think Bob bottomed him if that's what you're getting at, unless something went off in the saddling sheds
He seemed one paced at both festivals last year to me.
Lacks the class of a really good horse like Bob Olinger.

However, his jumping is exceptional, and takes nothing out of him.
Definitely a better animal for a fence IMO.

Maybe you’re right he got a similar rpr but he looked jaded to me.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I agree.
But it's too early to be backing off surely.
At least wait till dec's to duck out.
Once you see what you're really up against.

Absolutely it’s too early. Anything can happen in the coming weeks, I imagine more runs for them for one thing.
Come near the day though, decisions will be made, and whilst I would love to see BMG and GDC clash, if events before then make it clear that BMG is probably going to have a very hard race trying to beat a serious horse, and would benefit long term by going to Aintree instead and winning, then could you really blame them?

[DenmanSacre]

Who's to say BMG skips Cheltenham, goes to Aintree and then has to face GDC or Bob there anyway.

Run him at Cheltenham as the long term aim with the KG must be a Gold Cup tilt.

[Rooster Booster]

Who's to say BMG skips Cheltenham, goes to Aintree and then has to face GDC or Bob there anyway.

Run him at Cheltenham as the long term aim with the KG must be a Gold Cup tilt.

Yes but if you have to face them why not face them having not had a tough race a few weeks earlier to try and steal the edge that you suspect you will need to win...I’m just seeing it from the trainer and owners point of view rather than a Cheltenham nut that’s all. As I say hardly going to be a popular view on a Cheltenham forum

[Carnage at Taunton]

Who's to say BMG skips Cheltenham, goes to Aintree and then has to face GDC or Bob there anyway.

Run him at Cheltenham as the long term aim with the KG must be a Gold Cup tilt.

True, but he will be a fresh horse against a not so fresh horse.

If he sees BMG as a KG horse and then a GC horse he may well be glad he was easy on him as a novice.

[Quevega]

Yes but if you have to face them why not face them having not had a tough race a few weeks earlier to try and steal the edge that you suspect you will need to win...I’m just seeing it from the trainer and owners point of view rather than a Cheltenham nut that’s all. As I say hardly going to be a popular view on a Cheltenham forum

I think Nicholls is partly managing expectations but it's becoming a little cliched, how often he trots out the Cheltenham's not the be all and end all mantra.
It's almost a default blurt post race with him now.
And the occasional time he deliberately plans to skip is sometimes foolish as races can cut up.

He's no need to say either, or.
He could just say that it'll get an entry and would be considered/discussed nearer the time.
They'd soon stop asking.
Henry's quite good at this.
Only very rarely when the owners and himself have a clear plan will they broadcast this.
Willie is similar.

[Quevega]

Absolutely it’s too early. Anything can happen in the coming weeks, I imagine more runs for them for one thing.
Come near the day though, decisions will be made, and whilst I would love to see BMG and GDC clash, if events before then make it clear that BMG is probably going to have a very hard race trying to beat a serious horse, and would benefit long term by going to Aintree instead and winning, then could you really blame them?

Is it a benefit in the long term to always go for the easy option ?
If you think you have a Champion.
At some point you have to test your animal, surely ?
I suppose some would say that the timing of this should be as optimum as possible.
But this horse has already raced in open company twice, and won a grade 1
GDC has won a beginners chase.
If I was Nicholls I'd be saying come to daddy. Not ducking any novice's.

[Rooster Booster]

I think Nicholls is partly managing expectations but it's becoming a little cliched, how often he trots out the Cheltenham's not the be all and end all mantra.
It's almost a default blurt post race with him now.
And the occasional time he deliberately plans to skip is sometimes foolish as races can cut up.

He's no need to say either, or.
He could just say that it'll get an entry and would be considered/discussed nearer the time.
They'd soon stop asking.
Henry's quite good at this.
Only very rarely when the owners and himself have a clear plan will they broadcast this.
Willie is similar.

Yes but don’t you also think he is making a statement to owners and potential owners basically saying give your horse to me and I will maximise your return on investment. I think he is cleverly manipulating/manoeuvring the media to achieve this. Yes if you horse is good enough to win it will run at Cheltenham but if it’s not I’ll get you good prize money elsewhere while other trainers chase pipe dreams. He may miss out on horses owned by Cheltenham nuts but he will gain many more that take a more pragmatic view.

I am sure this is a very deliberate marketing strategy on his part.

[Quevega]

Yes but don’t you also think he is making a statement to owners and potential owners basically saying give your horse to me and I will maximise your return on investment. I think he is cleverly manipulating/manoeuvring the media to achieve this. Yes if you horse is good enough to win it will run at Cheltenham but if it’s not I’ll get you good prize money elsewhere while other trainers chase pipe dreams. He may miss out on horses owned by Cheltenham nuts but he will gain many more that take a more pragmatic view.

I am sure this is a very deliberate marketing strategy on his part.

Could well be.
Not sure how clever is is though, on balance.
Miles better to keep shtum.

[Rooster Booster]

Could well be.
Not sure how clever is is though, on balance.
Miles better to keep shtum.

Well if Dan Skelton takes a more balanced view and overtakes him then not very clever..I guess time will tell but it doesn’t seem to be hurting him yet.

[Quevega]

Well if Dan Skelton takes a more balanced view and overtakes him then not very clever..I guess time will tell but it doesn’t seem to be hurting him yet.

Specifically with regards attracting prospective owners.
I'd say it's a little misjudged as a marketing strategy.
Pretty sure most owners aren't in it for the money or to win the Melling chase !

If your horse is deemed good enough to win a grade 1 at aintree, then it's got to have a shout at Cheltenham.
And most aspiring owners would want that shout.

[Quevega]

Yes but don’t you also think he is making a statement to owners and potential owners basically saying give your horse to me and I will maximise your return on investment. I think he is cleverly manipulating/manoeuvring the media to achieve this. Yes if you horse is good enough to win it will run at Cheltenham but if it’s not I’ll get you good prize money elsewhere while other trainers chase pipe dreams. He may miss out on horses owned by Cheltenham nuts but he will gain many more that take a more pragmatic view.

I am sure this is a very deliberate marketing strategy on his part.

Not just you.
But I've seen this type of comment trotted out a few times with regards Nicholls.

It's almost like he's got a 100% strike rate for horses he send to the festival.
When it's actually below par.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Specifically with regards attracting prospective owners.
I'd say it's a little misjudged as a marketing strategy.
Pretty sure most owners aren't in it for the money or to win the Melling chase !

If your horse is deemed good enough to win a grade 1 at aintree, then it's got to have a shout at Cheltenham.
And most aspiring owners would want that shout.

I can see both arguments here, some owners would want to have a crack at a Cheltenham win, well I imagine most, but then a trainer you know will look after your horse and do what’s best in the long term, I imagine would also appeal to an owner.
Think what is good to remember is that March at Cheltenham is not the be all and end all, as it seems to be now, and has done for some time now.
I love Cheltenham, it’s why I get involved on here, but we have to recognise their are other meetings, and some have great traditional races of their own.And some of those races are more suited to some horses.

[Rooster Booster]

Not just you.
But I've seen this type of comment trotted out a few times with regards Nicholls.

It's almost like he's got a 100% strike rate for horses he send to the festival.
When it's actually below par.

Exactly...that’s why I think he is manipulating the media to create a myth to suit his own narrative...he knows he is not going to get called out on it . I know it’s bollocks you know it’s bollocks but the average joe is believing this shit .....fuck me the British public probably drinks more fancy water per capita than any other nation ...

[Quevega]

I can see both arguments here, some owners would want to have a crack at a Cheltenham win, well I imagine most, but then a trainer you know will look after your horse and do what’s best in the long term, I imagine would also appeal to an owner.
Think what is good to remember is that March at Cheltenham is not the be all and end all, as it seems to be now, and has done for some time now.
I love Cheltenham, it’s why I get involved on here, but we have to recognise their are other meetings, and some have great traditional races of their own.And some of those races are more suited to some horses.

The key word you used here was "most"
And Cheltenham is everything.
All other meetings are prep races and for form analysis only.
And betting on.