2022 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[Callum]

What is everyone’s thoughts on the lack of entries for Nickelback here with cash out soon to disappear on PP, anyone heard anything?

[Saxon Warrior]

It probably means very little to many but might be worth remembering Dysart Dynamo was entered in the Lawlors Of Naas, and likely would have run if Willie felt he was ready. The race today probably just suited him more at this stage too.

What the Lawlors did give Willie though was a line into the form as he still had Whatdeawant run in the race.

I can only imagine DD trounces Whatdeawant at home, not that he'll ever come out and say as much. Let's be honest though, DD looks as though he'll trounce many, tbf.

I don't buy this whole 'Supreme trial' about the race today though. This was built from when the Chanelle Pharma was 2m2f, but that is now 2m and is the main Supreme trial in Ireland now.

Agree completely.

I have written about that somewhere, just this week.

It was a Supreme Trial until the DRF robbed it of being one, with a big money rebadged 2M Grade 1 (moved from 2M2F) back in 2018.

This Grade 2 over 2M is for those that need to run before the DRF, and not wait.
WPM used it well today, as Dysart started out well before Christmas and needs another run before the DRF - why wait?

He's obviously going to win a Grade 1 soon enough, maybe one thats worth far more than the DRF prize too.

[Kevloaf]

What is everyone’s thoughts on the lack of entries for Nickelback here with cash out soon to disappear on PP, anyone heard anything?

I'm pretty sure he's had a setback.
Personally, I'd cash (and have)

[SeanRock]

I’m at a bit of a loss for this race at the minute tbh, I think the Lawlors still may be a good reference though with possibly Grand Jury & even at a stretch Whatdeawant in with a shout.

I was at Naas that day & the conditions made for a total stamina test which didn’t suit either when Ginto was galloping them into submission, could see both shine with conditions better suited!

[Muswell]

And this is how you remind me?

[Frankely My Dear]

Is it beyond possibility that DD runs like he did today for a further 4f? Would the hill find him out or would he need to be an absolute machine to do so? He wasn't all out so I reckon he had more in the tank, so unless anything goes off quicker and tires him out/makes him not run his race I think he still has a good shout at this further distance

[SeanRock]

Is it beyond possibility that DD runs like he did today for a further 4f? Would the hill find him out or would he need to be an absolute machine to do so? He wasn't all out so I reckon he had more in the tank, so unless anything goes off quicker and tires him out/makes him not run his race I think he still has a good shout at this further distance

It’s very difficult to set the margins from the front in the Ballymore, very few have done so, I’m firmly of the opinion you need a horse that settles in quietly & turns on the afterburners two out!

Edit: Two hurdles out that is

[TigerRolllllll]

It’s very difficult to set the margins from the front in the Ballymore, very few have done so, I’m firmly of the opinion you need a horse that settles in quietly & turns on the afterburners two out!

Edit: Two hurdles out that is

Prob right, but sure has been done

Pretty sure Hardy Eustace did? So worth looking if been others

Sir Gerhard might also want to lead? Or least he very close to pace

[Lobos]

Is it beyond possibility that DD runs like he did today for a further 4f? Would the hill find him out or would he need to be an absolute machine to do so? He wasn't all out so I reckon he had more in the tank, so unless anything goes off quicker and tires him out/makes him not run his race I think he still has a good shout at this further distance

A further 5f........

[That Horse]

I’m at a bit of a loss for this race at the minute tbh, I think the Lawlors still may be a good reference though with possibly Grand Jury & even at a stretch Whatdeawant in with a shout.

I was at Naas that day & the conditions made for a total stamina test which didn’t suit either when Ginto was galloping them into submission, could see both shine with conditions better suited!

I've been telling myself the same thing. Grand Jury was weak in the betting like they weren't expecting a win either due to conditions or against more experienced rivals. With more favourable conditions and hopefully improvement to come, I think he might be being overlooked a bit.

[Frankely My Dear]

A further 5f........

I stand corrected. I blame the virus a second time

[SeanRock]

Prob right, but sure has been done

Pretty sure Hardy Eustace did? So worth looking if been others

Sir Gerhard might also want to lead? Or least he very close to pace

True he did lead for the most part, Willoughby Court the only horse to do so in the last 10 renewals, I’d trust Ruby to set the margins as there was no one better at it but not anyone currently!

[ToniC]

The current Exchange market for this race is absolutely wild. Nobody seems to have a clue

[TigerRolllllll]

True he did lead for the most part, Willoughby Court the only horse to do so in the last 10 renewals, I’d trust Ruby to set the margins as there was no one better at it but not anyone currently!

Obviously be Paul T…..who is pretty good and gets lots practice on front runners….plus can learn directly from Ruby

Would trust Rachael too to do that and Davy

[nortonscoin200]

Is it beyond possibility that DD runs like he did today for a further 4f? Would the hill find him out or would he need to be an absolute machine to do so? He wasn't all out so I reckon he had more in the tank, so unless anything goes off quicker and tires him out/makes him not run his race I think he still has a good shout at this further distance

The bottom line for me is to ask yourself 2 questions and the answers tell you where he should run:

Q. With what we know right now about all the contenders, would DD win the Supreme?
A. Maybe. But his chance is less than 50-50.


Q. With what we know to date would DD win the Ballymore?
A. Yes, he probably would. Assuming Hendo's pair and Sir G went Supreme if DD turned up here I'd give him a 60-40 chance at least.


I also think it's a misconception to say DD will struggle to make all in the Ballymore.

He didn't make the pace in either of his bumper races but posted terrific figures in both - the first being over 2m 2 1/2f.

Pretty sure he's not as one dimensional as some are making out.