2022 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[Kevloaf]

I feel like the debate of “where does DD end up” is going to go right on up until declaration day without a hint of information

can't disagree.


That makes up about 50% of dicussion on here a year though, in various guises




Better than talking about the weather though. That annual weather thread....

[Eggs]

….be great if the top trainers did updated stable tours anytime soon.

[Many Clouds]

I feel like the debate of “where does DD end up” is going to go right on up until declaration day without a hint of information

Agreed, I just want to be put out of my misery now.

[Lobos]

Agreed, I just want to be put out of my misery now.

Complicated isn't it ! No point worrying about it. Whatever anyone says, we just know that all these Novices will get an entry for 2/3 races at the Fez and that nothing will be decide until declaration time. Lets just hope they all get there fit and well first...............and we all know they won't !

[TigerRolllllll]

can't disagree.


That makes up about 50% of dicussion on here a year though, in various guises




Better than talking about the weather though. That annual weather thread....

Prob in minority here....but adds interest and opportunity....and we have some awesome horses this year to debate

My book has a ridiculous amount of doubles in every year and i enjoy trying to work out scenarios for related doubles at various stages with entries, etc

Would encourage people to look at where they might have gaps, or see an opportunity, or concern about a scenario to look at doubles......small stakes and fun with good rewards when get them right......and that lovely feeling of solving a puzzle if you do work it out

That said, it might of course all end in disaster

Question now is what might happen at DRF and how would that impact decisions across 3 races???

Loads exciting chasers too for next year

[Many Clouds]

Complicated isn't it ! No point worrying about it. Whatever anyone says, we just know that all these Novices will get an entry for 2/3 races at the Fez and that nothing will be decide until declaration time. Lets just hope they all get there fit and well first...............and we all know they won't !

Doing my tits in mate, my friend who I go halves with on all bets rings me nearly every day for a chat and we end up having the same discussion about where he's gonna go and then read it all on here every day too haha don't have him covered for the supreme at all or Ferny for Arkle or Honeysuckle for the Champ hurdle so them 3 are just going in trebles with free bets the next few week and then whatever happens happens. Time to just concentrate on other races for me now and will suck it up in march.

[TigerRolllllll]

Posted this in general too.....as not sure where belongs


Gordon prob has the most options in hurdles of all the top trainers.......not sure how many, if any, will win, but he has a strong hand to shuffle

He has also had mixed experience with Spuds, so where does everyone currently think they will go....and are there any opportunities???

Key ones and their RPRs by race are as follows...

Ginto 128, 143, 147

Might Potter P 137, 139, 143

Gerry C 137

Hollow G 139, 127, 140

Three Stripes Life 135, 142

Min Croon 132, ??



Starter for ten...

Supreme - Mighty Potter, Three Stripes Life

Ballymore - Gerry Colombe (if goes at all?), Ginto

Sounds - Hollow Games, Minella Crooner


The one that still stands out for me is Ginto in Ballymore......why go Spuds given connections have HG and won key trial ??

[HarryTrotter]

Just spotted on paddy in the specials section they’ve got non runner money back on dysart dynamo for the supreme (11/4) and ballymore (7/2). Could provide a bit of cover for some with a bit of protection

[Kevloaf]

Just spotted on paddy in the specials section they’ve got non runner money back on dysart dynamo for the supreme (11/4) and ballymore (7/2). Could provide a bit of cover for some with a bit of protection

Good spot.

[Quevega]

Just spotted on paddy in the specials section they’ve got non runner money back on dysart dynamo for the supreme (11/4) and ballymore (7/2). Could provide a bit of cover for some with a bit of protection

ToniC will be going mad on that ballymore price.

[ToniC]

ToniC will be going mad on that ballymore price.

ALL IN *hammer emoji x100*

[Benjy23]

Pointing out the obvious but PP definitely have him going for the Supreme don't they. Shorter price NRNB in the much more difficult race, on paper.

[ComplyOrDie]

ToniC will be going mad on that ballymore price.

He wouldn't be alone.

That's a cracking NRNB price, IMO. But then again my opinion is Nicky not sending his main two to the Ballymore, JWM going to the Bartlett, and DD becoming really short for this race.

[Quevega]

To save anyone else trying.
I just tried the NRNB price in a double with Sir G and they wouldn't allow
worth a try

[ToniC]

This race looks there for the taking for a good one that wants it, not necessarily Dysart Dynamo but having been used to getting a really strong fav in recent renewals (Bob, envoi, Samcro - bob wasn’t odds on but was short enough in what looked a very strong renewal) there’s nothing so far that’s looking like putting themselves in that bracket. Below is a very scientific visual depiction of how I currently break down the race:


pic hosting sites


the two at the top of the betting, only one of them will go, which will take a big enough chunk out of the market in its current form. Even more so if that one is sir g after getting beat in Dublin as he may well drift from where he is now.

JWM - Will go Bartlett unless it’s hock deep. And even then maybe not.

Ginto - may go, and I’m glad to have him covered at bigger prices for this, but I think it will be a below average renewal if he wins. And if hollow games bombs out at the DRF he might slot into the Bartlett. But would have him marginal fav for coming here at present. Hed certainly be vulnerable to a quicker, classier type if it were yielding IMO. 8s could look value though ok the day if neither of the 2 currently at the head of the market come here.

Stage Star - will run here, but think we’d all be surprised if there wasn’t something better. Price liable to shorten though I’d suspect.

A load that won’t run. Sure nothings ever a done deal, I suppose mighty potter could if 3SL spanks him in the Deloitte. But noises from the yard are they see him as the most supreme-type of their novices.

Gerri Colombe could absolutely be value and could be the classy Ballymore type the market is missing. He’s been given a strange campaign and has no entries for the DRF though. He’s very unexposed and if he does run somewhere soon could make a huge dent in this market.

more that won’t run

funnily enough the next one I’d like isn’t even on the page. Three stripe life who looked good in bumpers could come here. After 2 runs this season id be inclined to think he’s no superstar, but he could be interesting up in trip. Probably not worth getting involved now as a good run at the DRF would likely book a supreme ticket, and a poor one would probably see him drift for here.

The front of the market here has loads of questionable/unlikely runners, we could just be set for a below-average renewal of the race, or we could be waiting for a trainer to come out and state an intention re one of the better ones with question marks above their target to see a bit of a price collapse. Either way, I think I’d definitely have this as the least developed of the 3 novice hurdle markets currently.

Edit: Grand Jury also not even on the page! Outstayed by Ginto in the Lawlors after travelling well, the yard were badly out of form at the time it seemed and is probably worth a bit of forgiveness for that. They could drop him down in trip but I’d have him in the likely runner bracket for here. If you’re not on, 28/1 is value IMO.