2022 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[Alexmilton]

If you have Dysart in the Ballymore then it is surely worth covering the bet with sky, requesting him to win today and the supreme. See him as a ballymore horse personally but worth the cover for piece of mind if heavily invested

[Dandrew99]

Personally, that entry hasn't put me off DD at all for the Ballymore. Of course there is the risk he keeps to 2 miles, but I don't think it's any greater than it was before.

Think it's relatively safe to say that this was always the target with him, hence skipping Christmas. Since then, Sir G has won impressively and seems to have booked his place in the CP at the DRF. Willie seems to want to keep these two apart, and I'd be fairly confident in saying they are his best two novice hurdlers at this stage.

Assuming that's right and they are his best two novices, why would he target them both at the Supreme where they will run into Jonbon and Constitution Hill, rather than stepping one up in trip to take on a wide open looking Ballymore?

As I said, assuming this was always his target, it's his next entry that will be key. I'm sure I've seen quotes saying Willie would be happy to put him up in trip if he settles, he seemed to be relatively calm in his debut, so assuming he is fine next time then I'd fully expect to see him stepped up in a few weeks time (missing the DRF) and onto the Ballymore. Then leaves Sir G to take on Hendo's pair, with possibly El Fabiolo as his second string.

Think the main thing for me is that if he were going to the Supreme, there is no chance he'd be available at 20/1 right now.

[Birds Nest]

Maybe a better way of covering dysart for the supreme would be in a double with Sir G going Bally...willie wouldnt throw both of these at nickys pair..

[Dandrew99]

Maybe a better way of covering dysart for the supreme would be in a double with Sir G going Bally...willie wouldnt throw both of these at nickys pair..

I've done the reverse, but I have been tempted by this too.

[FinalFurlong91]

"Think the main thing for me is that if he were going to the Supreme, there is no chance he'd be available at 20/1 right now."

This pretty much

He only goes supreme if its bottomless ground in March and/or sir gerhard runs poorly at the DRF

[Quevega]

Personally, that entry hasn't put me off DD at all for the Ballymore. Of course there is the risk he keeps to 2 miles, but I don't think it's any greater than it was before.

Think it's relatively safe to say that this was always the target with him, hence skipping Christmas. Since then, Sir G has won impressively and seems to have booked his place in the CP at the DRF. Willie seems to want to keep these two apart, and I'd be fairly confident in saying they are his best two novice hurdlers at this stage.

Assuming that's right and they are his best two novices, why would he target them both at the Supreme where they will run into Jonbon and Constitution Hill, rather than stepping one up in trip to take on a wide open looking Ballymore?

As I said, assuming this was always his target, it's his next entry that will be key. I'm sure I've seen quotes saying Willie would be happy to put him up in trip if he settles, he seemed to be relatively calm in his debut, so assuming he is fine next time then I'd fully expect to see him stepped up in a few weeks time (missing the DRF) and onto the Ballymore. Then leaves Sir G to take on Hendo's pair, with possibly El Fabiolo as his second string.

Think the main thing for me is that if he were going to the Supreme, there is no chance he'd be available at 20/1 right now.

It's definitely greater than before.

With regards Sir G.
The Bumper form is looking more and more like it's below par, and he probably wasn't the best horse in the race either.
The horse's in behind in the bumper all look average/more likely handicappers.
And his maiden was very poor.
He's got quite a big step to take if he goes straight into a grade 1 in Dublin.
I don't think he'll win myself.
Think it's early to bracket Sir G as one of Willie's best novices. He has to win a graded race first.
He could well do though.

[Dandrew99]

It's definitely greater than before.

With regards Sir G.
The Bumper form is looking more and more like it's below par, and he probably wasn't the best horse in the race either.
The horse's in behind in the bumper all look average/more likely handicappers.
And his maiden was very poor.
He's got quite a big step to take if he goes straight into a grade 1 in Dublin.
I don't think he'll win myself.
Think it's early to bracket Sir G as one of Willie's best novices. He has to win a graded race first.
He could well do though.

Depends what you thought the chances were before I suppose. I always expected his second race to be here, so it's changed nothing from my point of view. Did you expect him to go somewhere else?

Agreed on Sir G's bumper form, but tough to take bumper form too literally. Regarding his maiden, you could argue the same for most of Willie's 2 mile novice hurdlers. None of themhave beaten anything in their maidens, but the entries and the post race comments suggest that he is one of their best. Fair enough call that he needs to prove it though.

[Quevega]

Depends what you thought the chances were before I suppose. I always expected his second race to be here, so it's changed nothing from my point of view. Did you expect him to go somewhere else?

Agreed on Sir G's bumper form, but tough to take bumper form too literally. Regarding his maiden, you could argue the same for most of Willie's 2 mile novice hurdlers. None of themhave beaten anything in their maidens, but the entries and the post race comments suggest that he is one of their best. Fair enough call that he needs to prove it though.

The high profile cheltenham bumper runners are obviously overbet. And also popular in the yard for same reasons.
His maiden win was worse than some others Willie has won with his novices, but his price is lower by far.

I think Willie's No1 for the supreme is up for grabs to be honest. And if Dysart runs and wins on Saturday then I'd say he goes No1 for the time being.
The settling comments apply to both races really so I don't see any reason why he needs further just yet.

But he'll likely be entered in them all and we may not see which he runs in till very late.
The odds difference could be something or nothing. I'm not sure on that one.

[Irish Rugby]

The forecast heavy ground on Sunday will feel more like 3 miles than 2, never mind 2m5.

I also think we are still seeing some of the results of Willie running out of time towards Christmas with some of these, due to the lack of rain we had in Ireland in November. DD is getting his second run of the season now, whereas that most likely would have been over Christmas.

[Dandrew99]

The high profile cheltenham bumper runners are obviously overbet. And also popular in the yard for same reasons.
His maiden win was worse than some others Willie has won with his novices, but his price is lower by far.

I think Willie's No1 for the supreme is up for grabs to be honest. And if Dysart runs and wins on Saturday then I'd say he goes No1 for the time being.
The settling comments apply to both races really so I don't see any reason why he needs further just yet.

But he'll likely be entered in them all and we may not see which he runs in till very late.
The odds difference could be something or nothing. I'm not sure on that one.

First bit is definitely true, but I personally think Sir G is about the right price. I actually thought his maiden win was pretty good myself. I'm more on the thought that Willies number one will go to DRF, if Sir G gets turned over there then yeah that's the risk that DD goes to the Supreme, if he wins then he goes to the Ballymore.

Yeah I'd be shocked if all of Willies novices don't get an entry in both, definitely on the same page there.

I'm personally around 70-80% confident DD goes to the Ballymore, and I stick by my comment that this entry doesn't change that. If it makes anyone less confident, then I'd say they must have expected a different entry.

[Speedy17]

Hopefully DD just romps this then heads to ballymore. Mullins hasn't got a serious Ballymore horse other than this lad imo. He pulled like a train in his bumpers and still motored away to win them, including one over 2m2f. I read a quote pre season that Mike Fogarty told Patrick Mullins DD was better than both Sir Gerhard and Kilcruit.


He'll romp the Moscow Flyer and then romp the Ballymore... Guess which one I've backed him for?

[Irish Rugby]

Hopefully DD just romps this then heads to ballymore. Mullins hasn't got a serious Ballymore horse other than this lad imo. He pulled like a train in his bumpers and still motored away to win them, including one over 2m2f. I read a quote pre season that Mike Fogarty told Patrick Mullins DD was better than both Sir Gerhard and Kilcruit.


He'll romp the Moscow Flyer and then romp the Ballymore... Guess which one I've backed him for?

If what Fogarty says is true, and why should we doubt it, it is further not surprising he was kept back until he had the right ground at Christmas, if he's so highly thought of. Let all us Ballymore ticket holders hope that's the case. I really do believe if he was Supreme bound, we wouldn't be seeing 20s.

[Star De Mohaison]

The 20's has just been clipped into 14's Bet365

[JackieMoon33]

If what Fogarty says is true, and why should we doubt it, it is further not surprising he was kept back until he had the right ground at Christmas, if he's so highly thought of. Let all us Ballymore ticket holders hope that's the case. I really do believe if he was Supreme bound, we wouldn't be seeing 20s.

Have you seen Fogarty on the preview circuit? He’s great value but not one for consistent tips by any stretch (he’s better than most panels though).

[FinalFurlong91]

Have you seen Fogarty on the preview circuit? He’s great value but not one for consistent tips by any stretch (he’s better than most panels though).

Was going to say this

Hes very funny though