2022 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[Zachx02]

Hi all, I've not posted on here despite having an account and I have been reading some of your thoughts lately and wanted to join in.

I've been looking at the Lawlors of Naas as a trial for this race. The last 2 winners of the Ballymore have come from that race, that is fact, but if you look further back at the winners of that race it does not make for great reading. Is there some recency bias with those who pick out Ginto as a likely winner of this race due the fact that the last 2 winners won this race? If we rewind two years, you would be looking at the LoN race and going no where near the winner because of the record of those that won. Previous to Envoi Allen the last horse to win this and then at Cheltenham was in 2009 - Mikael D'haguenet.

This brings me on to the Challow hurdle, and the fact that I've heard opinions (mainly on youtube) where people rule out Stage Star because "no winner of the Challow wins at Cheltenham". The last 3 winners (of the Challow) prior to SS were BMG, Thyme Hill and Champ, is that really such a poor role call of horses that you will look past SS as the winner of this race?

Wanted your thoughts on this.......Thanks!

Completely agree with you on the LoN point, I personally didn't see anything that great in the race and if Ginto did go to the ballymore I'd be happy to go against him going off the LoN race

[charlie]

This brings me on to the Challow hurdle, and the fact that I've heard opinions (mainly on youtube) where people rule out Stage Star because "no winner of the Challow wins at Cheltenham". The last 3 winners (of the Challow) prior to SS were BMG, Thyme Hill and Champ, is that really such a poor role call of horses that you will look past SS as the winner of this race?

It's not just 0/17 Challow winners that doesn't read well. Paul has a rubbish record in the race and the Irish have dominated the race in recent years. Add to that the form of the Challow looking rubbish, and BMG, Thyme Hill and Champ being (probably) considerably more talented horses and still failing to win, you collectively paint a picture of a horse I don't want to go anywhere near tbh.

[Istabraq]

Hi all, I've not posted on here despite having an account and I have been reading some of your thoughts lately and wanted to join in.

I've been looking at the Lawlors of Naas as a trial for this race. The last 2 winners of the Ballymore have come from that race, that is fact, but if you look further back at the winners of that race it does not make for great reading. Is there some recency bias with those who pick out Ginto as a likely winner of this race due the fact that the last 2 winners won this race? If we rewind two years, you would be looking at the LoN race and going no where near the winner because of the record of those that won. Previous to Envoi Allen the last horse to win this and then at Cheltenham was in 2009 - Mikael D'haguenet.

This brings me on to the Challow hurdle, and the fact that I've heard opinions (mainly on youtube) where people rule out Stage Star because "no winner of the Challow wins at Cheltenham". The last 3 winners (of the Challow) prior to SS were BMG, Thyme Hill and Champ, is that really such a poor role call of horses that you will look past SS as the winner of this race?

Wanted your thoughts on this.......Thanks!

Welcome.
I think recency bias creates value, Galvin and PTKO cases in point last season, their price held all Winter while they were tucked up in a box and inferior animals impressed.
That said I do think there is correlation between what it takes for a horse to win at one track and at another track, Newbury however has seen countless winners pass through en route to festival glory so that is more of an oddity.
However, we live in a time of Irish
domination so races like the Challow could be ignored/disregarded, and until there's an overhaul of the NH game in the UK I’ll be looking more towards Leopardstown and Punchestown for Ballymore clues….

[ToniC]

Winners of the lawlors have produced 2 winners, a second and 2 thirds in the Ballymore in the past 10 renewals of it before this year. Another 4 winners didn’t run in the Ballymore. There’s only really battleoverdoyen that flopped after winning this race, got me it’s by far and away the best Ballymore trial on either calendar

[Hurricane fly]

Dysart Dynamo & Gerri Columbe, at 8's and 16's respectively. There are of course form substance questions for the latter,

The second in GCs hurdle win came out and won last weekend so that's a positive.

[FinalFurlong91]

Ginto is nothing like Bob or Envoi

They were much quicker types than he is

I think he will run well whatever race he contests but id have him as more likely to win the bartlett

[Carnage at Taunton]

Hi all, I've not posted on here despite having an account and I have been reading some of your thoughts lately and wanted to join in.

I've been looking at the Lawlors of Naas as a trial for this race. The last 2 winners of the Ballymore have come from that race, that is fact, but if you look further back at the winners of that race it does not make for great reading. Is there some recency bias with those who pick out Ginto as a likely winner of this race due the fact that the last 2 winners won this race? If we rewind two years, you would be looking at the LoN race and going no where near the winner because of the record of those that won. Previous to Envoi Allen the last horse to win this and then at Cheltenham was in 2009 - Mikael D'haguenet.

This brings me on to the Challow hurdle, and the fact that I've heard opinions (mainly on youtube) where people rule out Stage Star because "no winner of the Challow wins at Cheltenham". The last 3 winners (of the Challow) prior to SS were BMG, Thyme Hill and Champ, is that really such a poor role call of horses that you will look past SS as the winner of this race?

Wanted your thoughts on this.......Thanks!

I think you should post more often, makes a lot of sense to me.

[charlie]

The second in GCs hurdle win came out and won last weekend so that's a positive.

Yeh, as much as I want that 'boost' to be dripping in substance, its good, but more than a bit thin with a view to weighing up credentials for this

[Lobos]

Personally don't see Gerri Colombe winning this and I've backed him at 40's for it. He looks an out and out Stayer to me and would get outpaced in a Ballymore

[jack1092]

Another thing with Gerri as we've been saying with a lot of horses is: where next?

JWM is earmarked for the 2M6 at the DRF. Where does that leave Gerri then....there aren't a lot (if any) races suitable for Ballymore horses. Unless jWM goes to Clonmel but i doubt it.

[Madmoose]

Bob Olinger "worked nicely earlier in the week" ahead of Sunday's Kildare Novice Chase at Punchestown, while Ballymore favourite Journey With Me will go to either the Dublin Racing Festival or an auction novice hurdle at Naas.

[jack1092]

Another thing with Gerri as we've been saying with a lot of horses is: where next?

JWM is earmarked for the 2M6 at the DRF. Where does that leave Gerri then....there aren't a lot (if any) races suitable for Ballymore horses. Unless jWM goes to Clonmel but i doubt it.

Answer this myself, could go the race Grand Paradis won last year end of Feb. Potentially too close.

[Istabraq]

Another thing with Gerri as we've been saying with a lot of horses is: where next?

Trials Day hosts a 20f G2, maybe that’s in the thinking….

[Folski]

Who's the last Nicholls horse to win a G1 novice hurdle at the festival? Pretty sure it's Al Ferof, as Zarkandar won the triumph which isn't technically a novice race.

[jack1092]

Trials Day hosts a 20f G2, maybe that’s in the thinking….

I'd love a bit of bold placement like that from Elliot. Can't see it happening though, not saying he's not bold of course.