2022 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[Hurdles or chasing]

Gerri Colombe looks the bet in this at the moment. Any reason why he was pushed out with PP to 25s?
Presume they think JWM is going here.

[Lobos]

Gerri Colombe looks the bet in this at the moment. Any reason why he was pushed out with PP to 25s?
Presume they think JWM is going here.

Did jockey/trainer not say after the race he was a proper Stayer?

[Hurdles or chasing]

Did jockey/trainer not say after the race he was a proper Stayer?

Maybe I didn't hear any quotes after it. I'm fairly confident JWM will end up in the AB so here makes sense for GC

[Lbur4288]

Did jockey/trainer not say after the race he was a proper Stayer?

I think the interview came across a bit more as keeping options open without giving anything away if I recall correctly.

[The Giant Bolster]

The Ballymore seems pretty open. I had a go at looking at what we might be able to tell from RPRs leading into the race over the last five years (I know RPRs not for everyone!). It's one angle among others I think using.

There are actually some strong RPR trends for this race. In the last five years, 11 horses have come into the race having recorded 150+ RPR. All but one won or placed (the exception was Vision des Flos who - incidentally - had recorded his seasonal best RPR over a shorter trip). Only one winner (City Island) has not recorded a 150+ RPR before the race.

None of the horses in the betting at 20-1 or below have recorded 150 yet. The highest (if you remove Sir Gerhard, Constitution Hill and Jonbon who seem likely to go to the Supreme and have also not hit 150+ yet (until CH's run yesterday is assessed I suspect)) is Stage Star at 148 and Ginto at 147.

Of course, most will have at least one further run and have scope to improve. I had a look at seasonal debut RPRs over hurdles for previous runners. For those who won or placed, they averaged a 11% improvement from debut. If you project this to debuts this year, these are the horses that hit over 150 from those 20-1 and under:

Journey With Me
Dysart Dynamo
Mighty Potter
Gerri Colombe
Three Stripe Life

Obviously horses vary in amount of improvement. Mighty Potter may well under up under 150 since he's had a few runs but his best RPR is only 143 so far; I think his ceiling could be below 150 this year. Stage Star and Ginto could end up over but they too have run more and we may have a better level for them. Obviously some of these above have only had one run and it was a run that showed significant scope for improvement.

So Dysart Dynamo and Gerri Colombe look like the best bets from this. I know they are already forum favourites (which is good news) but they could end up being significantly better than the field. Gerri Colombe still looks exceptional value at 25-1 with PP. Obviously Journey With Me could end up here but I think we've seen connections consistently describe him as a stayer and his debut won't have changed those views.

It feels like less good news for Ginto and Stage Star towards the top of the betting who are more exposed and below the 150 mark. Obviously I wouldn't rule them out but would prefer others. Without reopening a can of worms, I think Ginto should go to the Albert Bartlett along with Hollow Games (which they both look suited to) unless Dysart Dynamo and Gerri Colombe disappoint in their next runs. It means connections don't split their runners but it probably gives them a better chance of winning one race overall.

[jrjr]

So Dysart Dynamo and Gerri Colombe look like the best bets from this. I know they are already forum favourites (which is good news) but they could end up being significantly better than the field. Gerri Colombe still looks exceptional value at 25-1 with PP. Obviously Journey With Me could end up here but I think we've seen connections consistently describe him as a stayer and his debut won't have changed those views.

It feels like less good news for Ginto and Stage Star towards the top of the betting who are more exposed and below the 150 mark. Obviously I wouldn't rule them out but would prefer others. Without reopening a can of worms, I think Ginto should go to the Albert Bartlett along with Hollow Games (which they both look suited to) unless Dysart Dynamo and Gerri Colombe disappoint in their next runs. It means connections don't split their runners but it probably gives them a better chance of winning one race overall.[/QUOTE]

Nice post - this is almost exactly how i see things.

[charlie]

The Giant Bolster I agree with a lot of your post.

Anything that's won with lots in hand in the high 130's or low 140's can obviously improve to cross that 150 RPR trends bar, it's just figuring out who it is. What I like about Gerri Colombe in comparison to a horse like Ginto (and this is where the trade off between race evidence and price occurs), is that Ginto was driven out to post an RPR of 147. He could be a bit better than that, but I'm quietly confident he's not a lot better than that (which is obviously highly subjective and just my personal view), whereas Gerri Colombe looks like he has loads of untapped ability having posted an RPR of 137. Winning easily and posting 137 is absolutely bang on if you think there's loads of improvement left, which I do. Someone made an interesting pure class v just good case a while back, and its born true in the last decade re debut run RPR's of winners

Willoughby Court 121
Windsor Park 128
City Island 128
Simonsig 135
The New One 136

Faugheen 138
Yorkhill 144
Bob Olinger 145
Samcro 146
Envoi Allen 149

I look at the above, and then I look at the current market for a horse that could be in that last group, and there isn't an obvious one. To me, that screams have a swing at a price, and I'll swing all day on Gerri. Hugely down played debut where he jumped brilliantly and pissed in. He's unbeaten, trained by Gordon, cost loads with a huge reputation, well bred, travels and settles well, big price, JWM looks a stayer, and he's posted an RPR of 137 winning as he liked. There is just loads and loads to like about him and as posted in my diary, this market is going to cut up, big time. I think we can say with relative certainty now after yesterday and CH goes Supreme, as does Mighty Potter according to connections. Statuaire will take on the mares, and SG looks supreme bound with the market move intimating this is where DD will go. If, like me, you think JWM is AB bound and a completely false fav, you can effectively take 5 of the 9 quoted ahead of GC out of this market, and there isn't much in behind that worries me either. The price will almost certainly plunge if he runs well NTO, and I am placing my faith in him to be the fella that emerges as a major player.

[Benjy23]

Ailie Rose running today at Ayr. Finished second behind Geri Colombe last time out. Not going to learn a great deal but probably like to see her win...

[Ray]

Ailie Rose running today at Ayr. Finished second behind Geri Colombe last time out. Not going to learn a great deal but probably like to see her win...

I think shes quite solid today..im gonna use her as a roll up in my gerri colombe bet!

[taylorch1990]

I think shes quite solid today..im gonna use her as a roll up in my gerri colombe bet!

Really like this idea, I've done the same.

[Birds Nest]

The Giant Bolster I agree with a lot of your post.

Anything that's won with lots in hand in the high 130's or low 140's can obviously improve to cross that 150 RPR trends bar, it's just figuring out who it is. What I like about Gerri Colombe in comparison to a horse like Ginto (and this is where the trade off between race evidence and price occurs), is that Ginto was driven out to post an RPR of 147. He could be a bit better than that, but I'm quietly confident he's not a lot better than that (which is obviously highly subjective and just my personal view), whereas Gerri Colombe looks like he has loads of untapped ability having posted an RPR of 137. Winning easily and posting 137 is absolutely bang on if you think there's loads of improvement left, which I do. Someone made an interesting pure class v just good case a while back, and its born true in the last decade re debut run RPR's of winners

Willoughby Court 121
Windsor Park 128
City Island 128
Simonsig 135
The New One 136

Faugheen 138
Yorkhill 144
Bob Olinger 145
Samcro 146
Envoi Allen 149

I look at the above, and then I look at the current market for a horse that could be in that last group, and there isn't an obvious one. To me, that screams have a swing at a price, and I'll swing all day on Gerri. Hugely down played debut where he jumped brilliantly and pissed in. He's unbeaten, trained by Gordon, cost loads with a huge reputation, well bred, travels and settles well, big price, JWM looks a stayer, and he's posted an RPR of 137 winning as he liked. There is just loads and loads to like about him and as posted in my diary, this market is going to cut up, big time. I think we can say with relative certainty now after yesterday and CH goes Supreme, as does Mighty Potter according to connections. Statuaire will take on the mares, and SG looks supreme bound with the market move intimating this is where DD will go. If, like me, you think JWM is AB bound and a completely false fav, you can effectively take 5 of the 9 quoted ahead of GC out of this market, and there isn't much in behind that worries me either. The price will almost certainly plunge if he runs well NTO, and I am placing my faith in him to be the fella that emerges as a major player.

Nice post Charlie and i agree with you on your points. Maybe the main concern over Gerri ,for some people, could ,ironically,be his price and/or lack of money for him. With the Bally being comparatively a lot more open than the supreme you'd expect a horse of Gordons who may have an outstanding chance to have been shortened up a bit more by now. Imo of course.

[Eggs]

Nice post Charlie and i agree with you on your points. Maybe the main concern over Gerri ,for some people, could ,ironically,be his price and/or lack of money for him. With the Bally being comparatively a lot more open than the supreme you'd expect a horse of Gordons who may have an outstanding chance to have been shortened up a bit more by now. Imo of course.

…especially when it’s PP who offer the 25-1. Let’s hope they’re wrong on this one.

[Lobos]

You have to worry why Gerri Colombe is 25/1 with Paddy Power though don't you ? Thats way out of sinc with others bookies. Identical to Bollinger's price in the RSA. Plenty on here keep saying that PP are the go to bookie for trying to identify the Irish horse's targets. If that's the case then surely he doesn't come here ? I've backed him at big odds for the Ballymore but am not convinced he'll end up there based on the above.

[Benjy23]

Ailie Rose running today at Ayr. Finished second behind Geri Colombe last time out. Not going to learn a great deal but probably like to see her win...

Won comfortably at 2/1. Very nice for those with roll ups and won't disappoint those that are just on Geri either.

[Odin]

You have to worry why Gerri Colombe is 25/1 with Paddy Power though don't you ? Thats way out of sinc with others bookies. Identical to Bollinger's price in the RSA. Plenty on here keep saying that PP are the go to bookie for trying to identify the Irish horse's targets. If that's the case then surely he doesn't come here ? I've backed him at big odds for the Ballymore but am not convinced he'll end up there based on the above.

On the flip side, Paddy were a standout 20/1 on Run Wild Fred for NH chase for a while. He still might not go there, but it's worth pointing out that bet looks better than Bob RSA does.