2022 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[CJW]

JWM drift, DD shortening with PP/BF ...

[Quevega]

Con Hill now Fav for this on exchange. Only just,
The market for this race is really tricky.
Stage Star being in the top 6 all at around 7/8 to 1 seems wrong to me.

The NRNB prices will be funny as I reckon he'd stay about the same, give or take a point, and the rest would all go half that at least, and Con Hill about 11/4 best.

[charlie]

The last of the 25's on Gerri Colombe has been clipped into 16's today by PP/BF

Lovely. Small move, but its what I want to see

[isitmarchyet]

Feel like I'm going to end up covering CH for this. Will be a bit of a sickener since I cashed out a really nice roll up on him for this when Henderson seemed quite adamant about him staying at 2 miles, but then was less certain in another interview. My own fault of course, shouldn't have reacted so hastily, but thought 365 might suspend cash out.

[Lobos]

It's currently a mess of a race isn't it . I really have no clue who will turn up. Not a race anyone can have a bet in with any confidence at all ! Fir certain the likes of Jonbon, Constitution Hill, Sur Gerhard, Dysart Dynamo, Journey With Me , Gerri Colombe, Grand Jury, Stage Star and El Fabiolo will all be left in the race until final decs are due. All trainers will be playing cat and mouse . Deffo NRNB race if you aren't in anything at this point.

[charlie]

It's currently a mess of a race isn't it . I really have no clue who will turn up. Not a race anyone can have a bet in with any confidence at all ! Fir certain the likes of Jonbon, Constitution Hill, Sur Gerhard, Dysart Dynamo, Journey With Me , Gerri Colombe, Grand Jury, Stage Star and El Fabiolo will all be left in the race until final decs are due. All trainers will be playing cat and mouse . Deffo NRNB race if you aren't in anything at this point.

True, it's a mess, but from a betting perspective its great. 7/1 the field, and of the top 10 in the market, you can throw 7 (IMO) on the wont go / not good enough / AB bound pile. I'd be surprised if JWM went here, market is weak and he's talked about like a stayer - big red flags, and he visually looks to me like a stayer. Constitution Hill will probably go Supreme even though this might be tempting, as will Sir Gerhard (market tells us) and Mighty Potter (connections tell us). I have a line through Stage Star purely on the basis his profile is savagely opposable in this, it would just pay not to back a horse like him over time, so I won't. Hillcrest won't be good enough, and Willie will go to the Mares novice hurdle with Statuaire. Something could of course come from outside the top 10 in the market, but thats unlikely, so 10 horses suddenly become 3. One is Ginto, a Grade 1 winner of a recognised trial, and the other two are both unexposed and unbeaten in Dysart Dynamo & Gerri Columbe, at 8's and 16's respectively. There are of course form substance questions for the latter, but, with so many horses coming out coupled with the visual impression they both leave, coupled with Gordon and Willie having won this 4 times in 8 years, I think it will pay to side with these 3 against the field. Guaranteed runner in Ginto with HG almost certainly now the Morans AB runner, and two currently peripheral outsiders at big prices that will shorten through non-runners, and have the potential to improve up to this level.

[FinalFurlong91]

Ginto is far from a guaranteed runner

Everything theyve said suggests its very much up in the air

It may even come down to something as simple as the ground

Id also argue neither Dysart Dysamo or gerri colombe are guaranteed either

DD wins on sunday and gerhard loses he could be supreme bound, or if its very soft ground the same applies

Gerri colombe looked a big galloping raw horse to me, not the type that usually wins this

Basically there's not a single horse bar maybe stage star that you could pin down to this

[Dandrew99]

There was quite a few interesting price cuts/drifts today, Ginto for the Bartlett being one of them (6s from 8s with PP)

[ToniC]

True, it's a mess, but from a betting perspective its great. 7/1 the field, and of the top 10 in the market, you can throw 7 (IMO) on the wont go / not good enough / AB bound pile. I'd be surprised if JWM went here, market is weak and he's talked about like a stayer - big red flags, and he visually looks to me like a stayer. Constitution Hill will probably go Supreme even though this might be tempting, as will Sir Gerhard (market tells us) and Mighty Potter (connections tell us). I have a line through Stage Star purely on the basis his profile is savagely opposable in this, it would just pay not to back a horse like him over time, so I won't. Hillcrest won't be good enough, and Willie will go to the Mares novice hurdle with Statuaire. Something could of course come from outside the top 10 in the market, but thats unlikely, so 10 horses suddenly become 3. One is Ginto, a Grade 1 winner of a recognised trial, and the other two are both unexposed and unbeaten in Dysart Dynamo & Gerri Columbe, at 8's and 16's respectively. There are of course form substance questions for the latter, but, with so many horses coming out coupled with the visual impression they both leave, coupled with Gordon and Willie having won this 4 times in 8 years, I think it will pay to side with these 3 against the field. Guaranteed runner in Ginto with HG almost certainly now the Morans AB runner, and two currently peripheral outsiders at big prices that will shorten through non-runners, and have the potential to improve up to this level.

Love this. Some would argue some bold calls but if you don’t make them and are non-committal about things you’ll just keep going round in circles without getting anywhere. Fwiw, I’d be agreeing with you. Anything that was going to come out would have by now. Race between Dysart & Ginto with GC a nice one to have onboard as a lively outsider.

good thing about Dysart & Ginto is whatever conditions are on the day and however the race is run it will favour one, one way and the other the other way so you’re covered all ends up. The more attritional the better for Ginto whilst Dysart Dynamo probably be wanting it run like a typical renewal

[Carnage at Taunton]

Fair enough if anyone has nice prices on any that are now in single figures or indeed any still at nice prices.
No way would I be taking any single figure prices right now, it’s too much of a guessing game whose going to actually run in the race.
I have a couple at big odds but any more bets will be when nrnb kicks in.

[fatherjohn]

Ginto is far from a guaranteed runner

Everything theyve said suggests its very much up in the air

It may even come down to something as simple as the ground

Id also argue neither Dysart Dysamo or gerri colombe are guaranteed either

DD wins on sunday and gerhard loses he could be supreme bound, or if its very soft ground the same applies

Gerri colombe looked a big galloping raw horse to me, not the type that usually wins this

Basically there's not a single horse bar maybe stage star that you could pin down to this

and I'm sure stage star has been mentioned for supreme if ground is testing and maybe misses for aintree

[Stormez]

and I'm sure stage star has been mentioned for supreme if ground is testing and maybe misses for aintree

I’ve also heard from someone who owns a pube in him that Cheltenham isn’t a certainty & Aintree is still an option.

[spotthediff]

Hi all, I've not posted on here despite having an account and I have been reading some of your thoughts lately and wanted to join in.

I've been looking at the Lawlors of Naas as a trial for this race. The last 2 winners of the Ballymore have come from that race, that is fact, but if you look further back at the winners of that race it does not make for great reading. Is there some recency bias with those who pick out Ginto as a likely winner of this race due the fact that the last 2 winners won this race? If we rewind two years, you would be looking at the LoN race and going no where near the winner because of the record of those that won. Previous to Envoi Allen the last horse to win this and then at Cheltenham was in 2009 - Mikael D'haguenet.

This brings me on to the Challow hurdle, and the fact that I've heard opinions (mainly on youtube) where people rule out Stage Star because "no winner of the Challow wins at Cheltenham". The last 3 winners (of the Challow) prior to SS were BMG, Thyme Hill and Champ, is that really such a poor role call of horses that you will look past SS as the winner of this race?

Wanted your thoughts on this.......Thanks!

[charlie]

Ginto is far from a guaranteed runner

Everything theyve said suggests its very much up in the air

It may even come down to something as simple as the ground

Id also argue neither Dysart Dysamo or gerri colombe are guaranteed either

DD wins on sunday and gerhard loses he could be supreme bound, or if its very soft ground the same applies

Gerri colombe looked a big galloping raw horse to me, not the type that usually wins this

Basically there's not a single horse bar maybe stage star that you could pin down to this

Nothing is guaranteed, even SS, but this is the most likely destination for Ginto, and the market (which of course can be wrong) screams this for DD, and not for SG.

The risk of taking these views and being wrong are not that high given current prices, and I think there are enough market/owner/form pointers to take these views now at decent prices, then re-evaluate if wrong.

Gerri Cololmbe looked a natural on debut. Went about his business professionally, and injected good speed as he did on the level to put the race to bed in a matter of strides. He's an exciting horse, but I want to see him vs something decent to put either mine or your take, to bed

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

Hi all, I've not posted on here despite having an account and I have been reading some of your thoughts lately and wanted to join in.

I've been looking at the Lawlors of Naas as a trial for this race. The last 2 winners of the Ballymore have come from that race, that is fact, but if you look further back at the winners of that race it does not make for great reading. Is there some recency bias with those who pick out Ginto as a likely winner of this race due the fact that the last 2 winners won this race? If we rewind two years, you would be looking at the LoN race and going no where near the winner because of the record of those that won. Previous to Envoi Allen the last horse to win this and then at Cheltenham was in 2009 - Mikael D'haguenet.

This brings me on to the Challow hurdle, and the fact that I've heard opinions (mainly on youtube) where people rule out Stage Star because "no winner of the Challow wins at Cheltenham". The last 3 winners (of the Challow) prior to SS were BMG, Thyme Hill and Champ, is that really such a poor role call of horses that you will look past SS as the winner of this race?

Wanted your thoughts on this.......Thanks!

In general, I agree with what you’re saying. Those kind of stats are mainly irrelevant. The only relevance of the race, for me, is the habits of the trainers in sending their preferred horses to those races.