Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

[Humble Pie]

Having backed Abacadabra's for the supreme. Even though he definitely won't win.

I noticed that many have selected him on the prediction thread, and he is a fairly obvious choice at this stage assuming Envoi Allen goes elsewhere.

I decided to re watch the Bumper again today, and also his last run against Envoi Allen.
The two real races he has contested.

Travels lovely, which I always like to see.
But he don't finish as well as he promises or you'd expect.
Think he needs to find that finish from somewhere or he will not win the supreme.

I'd also find it impossible to believe that the bumper is going to produce the 3 novice hurdle winners this season. But you can't fault the form so far.

If EA doesn’t run and you don’t think Abacadabras winning what do you see?

Unexcepted Blue Sari?

[Quevega]

If EA doesn’t run and you don’t think Abacadabras winning what do you see?

Unexcepted Blue Sari?

Nothing yet really.
I liked Unexcepted, but it was a nothing race.

I also liked the Elixir Dainay race with the Brassil gelding Longhouse Poet also (it just looked like good form), but not sure what trip Elixir would run at. I've only backed both for the ballymore at this point, but should Envoi keep winning in style, his opponents in whichever race he chooses will start to thin out. We could end up with 16-20 in the supreme and 10-14 in the ballymore.

I think I've seen enough negative's in abacadabra's to think that a couple will likely be too good.

[darlojim]

Having backed Abacadabra's for the supreme. Even though he definitely won't win.

I noticed that many have selected him on the prediction thread, and he is a fairly obvious choice at this stage assuming Envoi Allen goes elsewhere.

I decided to re watch the Bumper again today, and also his last run against Envoi Allen.
The two real races he has contested.

Travels lovely, which I always like to see.
But he don't finish as well as he promises or you'd expect.
Think he needs to find that finish from somewhere or he will not win the supreme.

I'd also find it impossible to believe that the bumper is going to produce the 3 novice hurdle winners this season. But you can't fault the form so far.

I'd say that was a little harsh on Abacadabras personally, in the royal bond he does travel into it very well but I think its more of a case EA powered away up the run in rather than Aba's finish being weak.

[Quevega]

I'd say that was a little harsh on Abacadabras personally, in the royal bond he does travel into it very well but I think its more of a case EA powered away up the run in rather than Aba's finish being weak.

That's what I did.
Then I watched the Bumper.

[Morley Street]

That's what I did.
Then I watched the Bumper.

I felt I had to back him at 16s at the weekend too but agree with you Q... think he’ll find at least one or two too strong at the finish.

[Humble Pie]

O

Nothing yet really.
I liked Unexcepted, but it was a nothing race.

I also liked the Elixir Dainay race with the Brassil gelding Longhouse Poet also (it just looked like good form), but not sure what trip Elixir would run at. I've only backed both for the ballymore at this point, but should Envoi keep winning in style, his opponents in whichever race he chooses will start to thin out. We could end up with 16-20 in the supreme and 10-14 in the ballymore.

I think I've seen enough negative's in abacadabra's to think that a couple will likely be too good.

We need to be seeing them next time out

[charlie]

Couldn’t have been much happier with Abacadabras performance myself. Made a mistake 3 (or 4 out I can’t remember), had to find racing room and then travelled strongly into the race going down a length to a weapon. It’s all invaluable experience that will stand him in good stead come March. 16’s gone 9’s would suggest a few agree.

[TCH29]

Couldn’t have been much happier with Abacadabras performance myself. Made a mistake 3 (or 4 out I can’t remember), had to find racing room and then travelled strongly into the race going down a length to a weapon. It’s all invaluable experience that will stand him in good stead come March. 16’s gone 9’s would suggest a few agree.

Agree...and I don’t think too much was asked of him in the final 200 yards. Expect him to improve and think Elliot will split them Supreme and Ballymore as he looks to have an excellent chance in both!

[charlie]

Agree...and I don’t think too much was asked of him in the final 200 yards. Expect him to improve and think Elliot will split them Supreme and Ballymore as he looks to have an excellent chance in both!

Yep, that’s my view. EA was never in any danger but Abacadabras cruised into the race then just couldn’t get past. Not many would, and I don’t think he was properly asked as you said.

[jack1092]

I'm still holding out that not every single Elliot horse is a machine. If Envoi doesn't go here, he's the current form horse but so much still to happen.

[Craigy14]

Still think it is way too early to be so confident in the novice races. I think one thing most agree on is whatever race Envoi Allen goes for it looks like he will win (similar to Samcros novice hurdle year).

Obviously we can only judge what we have seen to date but given that Elliott always sends his horses out earlier than Mullins it is always worth waiting. As Scooby said the prices for KD last season held at a decent price for some time prior to him running and after he had ran.

We also haven’t had too much of note to run in the UK as yet, couple from smaller yards have looked pretty good but I’m sure Henderson Nicholls and possibly even Tizzard will have 1 or 2 that will make an impression when they are seen.

[Scooby91]

Still think it is way too early to be so confident in the novice races. I think one thing most agree on is whatever race Envoi Allen goes for it looks like he will win (similar to Samcros novice hurdle year).

Obviously we can only judge what we have seen to date but given that Elliott always sends his horses out earlier than Mullins it is always worth waiting. As Scooby said the prices for KD last season held at a decent price for some time prior to him running and after he had ran.

We also haven’t had too much of note to run in the UK as yet, couple from smaller yards have looked pretty good but I’m sure Henderson Nicholls and possibly even Tizzard will have 1 or 2 that will make an impression when they are seen.

Prices are mental this season. Win your maiden hurdle impressively and before you know it your 10/1 <

Unexcepted
Andy dufresne

Are priced like they've already won there respective graded races.

Thyme hill is well found in the bartlett market now too. Which although he looks the ideal type, theres nothing much had there chance yet. And is a grave yard for favs.

[ComplyOrDie]

Prices are mental this season. Win your maiden hurdle impressively and before you know it your 10/1 <

Unexcepted
Andy dufresne

Are priced like they've already won there respective graded races.

Thyme hill is well found in the bartlett market now too. Which although he looks the ideal type, theres nothing much had there chance yet. And is a grave yard for favs.

Prices have been mental for a few seasons now IMO.

I think it's a sign of the times, we have to take what is available or not at all, because the prices definitely don't last long (like they used to), but then again, the two you mentioned above are still bigger after one run than Samcro was and what Envoi Allen was this season.

I guess you have to weigh up what is about in terms of opposition, what is due to come out, when it's due to come out etc.... (all easier said than done), could wait for an entry and then back also.

Cash out helps in a big way, because you can risk backing pre-race and if it flops take a small loss.

With regards to Supreme horses, we probably have around a month before we know where we stand with regards to the talent out there, once January comes I'd be surprised if we find the Supreme winner that hasn't already had his/her seasonal debut.

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Thing is as well on the day whichever race Envoi Allen doesn’t go for will have a large field and some great value. If he goes Supreme a lot will go for the Ballymore instead and vice versa

[billymag]

Its a good point about prices with the cash out, a lot of the risk is taken out of the usual antepost bet so the price reflects this. The problem is its the big firms that have the cash out and lots of us cant bet with them, once one firm goes short its not long before most follow suit.