Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

[Kautostar]

I'm pretty sure they will start him over fences and target the big 2 mile races going forward. However, as we saw with B D'air, if he doesn't take to fences then he will not hang about in reverting back to hurdles. He said that Altior would have won the Churdle and has said the same about Shiskin. His TWAR price is close to his Arkle price so that's the way I'd play it.

B D’air didn’t not take to fences he was more than adequate, he simply took a gamble to revert to hurdles due to it being a very weak open renewal. I think the fav got injured and it blew the champion hurdle wide open.

[Kevloaf]

B D’air didn’t not take to fences he was more than adequate, he simply took a gamble to revert to hurdles due to it being a very weak open renewal. I think the fav got injured and it blew the champion hurdle wide open.

I dunno, you can definitely argue he didn't 'take to fences'. He tried to hurdle plenty of them from what I can remember. Was too low and belted a good few.

It was a weak looking renewal though you're absolutely right. Yanworth was in the mix and they had a crack with Moon Racer lol.
Annie Power had won the year before and Faugheen was on the sidelines again.




With Nicky Henderson having Epatante, Shishkin would need to be un-natural over a fence and NJH to have an injury pre-season or early season to Epatante to enforce a switch back in my opinion.

[archie]

Buveur D'Air ran in novice chases in the December and didn't revert to hurdles until the February. Plenty of time for a change of mind even if you trust the man.

[Kevloaf]

Buveur D'Air ran in novice chases in the December and didn't revert to hurdles until the February. Plenty of time for a change of mind even if you trust the man.

For me the parallel is there with Altior, not Buveur D'air.

Altior was the Supreme winner and Shishkin will be going where he wants, he won't be 'slotted in' to suit other horses.


Shishkin should be the Arkle favourite given his hurdles form. Buveur D'air was absolutely no where near being an Arkle favourite even after his debut. His 3rd in the Supreme was hardly eye catching either... he was not going to make a huge splash in the Novice Chase division so they brought him back.


I don't see how that's the same, unless Shishkin flops. He'd need to be worse over fences to make them switch back.

[archie]

I can accept that Shishkin's record is more like Altior than Buveur D'Air but the possibility of a switch remains.

As far as being 4/1 favourite is concerned, that is just silly when the Champion Hurdle 3rd is available at 25/1.

[Kevloaf]

I can accept that Shishkin's record is more like Altior than Buveur D'Air but the possibility of a switch remains.

As far as being 4/1 favourite is concerned, that is just silly when the Champion Hurdle 3rd is available at 25/1.

How many horses has Henderson switched along with Buveur D'air?
I can only think on Brain Power coming back to hurdles? I imagine there are more but whilst I accept there is a possibility, that's because there is a possibility I could find a thumb in my can of coke so you can't ever rule anything out.

Worrying about it though would be like worrying if the sun is going to come up. I don't think it needs factoring into the price.



9 year old Darver Star is unlikely to be beating Shishkin over fences for me next season, but it's a valid point regarding which form line is stronger.

[archie]

9 year old Darver Star is unlikely to be beating Shishkin over fences for me next season, but it's a valid point regarding which form line is stronger.

The actually ran their races in almost exactly the same time with DS carrying 3lb more. Both were rated 159 afterwards. The price discrepancy is ridiculous.

[Kevloaf]

The actually ran their races in almost exactly the same time with DS carrying 3lb more. Both were rated 159 afterwards. The price discrepancy is ridiculous.

The price discrepency is because they're priced on profile and age rather than 'just' the one piece of form from the same day though.

You know that. You also know that there is more to working out which horse wins a future race than looking at what they have in the form book.



If I had a free bet I think I'd put it on Darver Star out of the two of them, but that's hardly a ringing endoresment.

[archie]

The price discrepency is because they're priced on profile and age rather than 'just' the one piece of form from the same day though.

You know that. You also know that there is more to working out which horse wins a future race than looking at what they have in the form book.



If I had a free bet I think I'd put it on Darver Star out of the two of them, but that's hardly a ringing endoresment.

Of course, if we were looking at the level of all form it would be Darver Star all the way.

I've never said that, some time in the future, Shishkin might not be a bet and I've been impressed by your discipline in the current hiatus. However, I'll take your last sentence as concession that, this far out, DS is a better bet.