Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

[jack1092]

They're not just stood in their box, they've ran schooling hurdles and bumpers at the curragh. Which is now just starting to filter through to the racecourse, There's the first 3 entered up that was at the curragh. 2 in bumpers. 1 over hurdles.

Saint roi and two of the three in the bumper Saturday?

[archie]

I believe that there are more schooling races at Thurles tomorrow for anyone who is local and got a couple of hours free.

[Scooby91]

Any of these yet to debut this season may have to be better than EA.

Question - how many horses in the last ten years have won the Supreme (or Ballymore) with two or less career runs (anywhere, incl flat, NHF, French hurdles etc)?

Question - how many horses in the last ten years have won the Supreme or Ballymore with three or less career runs (anywhere incl flat, NHF, French hurdles etc)?

If your one who thinks EA runs in the supreme.


Fly smart for one has already ran twice. As has a horse of JPs that runs tomorrow. They've all ran in france beforehand, in schooling hurdles, and been jumping since 2 at home. I don't see the issue myself. Theres is loads of time to get another 2 runs in.

I'm not sure why its suddenly become a thing, theres unbelievable recency bias throughout the threads .
And if anyone is backing in the novices, like what they see there now will be the final fields. They're in a world of trouble.

[Scooby91]

Saint roi and two of the three in the bumper Saturday?

Saint roi. Figaroc. Power of pause

[billymag]

Do you know if Fly Smart has run recently in a schooling hurdle please Scooby

[Saxon Warrior]

If your one who thinks EA runs in the supreme.


Fly smart for one has already ran twice. As has a horse of JPs that runs tomorrow. They've all ran in france beforehand, in schooling hurdles, and been jumping since 2 at home. I don't see the issue myself. Theres is loads of time to get another 2 runs in.

I'm not sure why its suddenly become a thing, theres unbelievable recency bias throughout the threads .
And if anyone is backing in the novices, like what they see there now will be the final fields. They're in a world of trouble.

The answer is no horse has won a Supreme or Ballymore after 2 career runs in the last ten years.

One horse won the Supreme after 3 career runs - Al Ferof (excl 2 PTPs) nine years ago.

One horse has won the Ballymore after three prior runs (excl 1PTP) Peddlers Cross ten years ago.

If you include PTPs then all winners had four or more career runs.

I'm not suggesting it cant be done, I've backed Fly Smart at big odds and would like to see him run soon. Just it would break with convention for a horse to win without three/four or more career runs.

[Scooby91]

The answer is no horse has won a Supreme or Ballymore after 2 career runs in the last ten years.

One horse won the Supreme after 3 career runs - Al Ferof (excl 2 PTPs) nine years ago.

One horse has won the Ballymore after three prior runs (excl 1PTP) Peddlers Cross ten years ago.

If you include PTPs then all winners had four or more career runs.

I'm not suggesting it cant be done, I've backed Fly Smart at big odds and would like to see him run soon. Just it would break with convention for a horse to win without three/four or more career runs.

I'm not sure if you understand but
I'll use fly smart for an example might not be him. But if he runs at Christmas then again in feb. That wouldn't be 2 runs, as hes already ran already. They have all already ran.

[Saxon Warrior]

I'm not sure if you understand but
I'll use fly smart for an example might not be him. But if he runs at Christmas then again in feb. That wouldn't be 2 runs, as hes already ran already. They have all already ran.

Yep I follow that logic too Scooby. Fly Smart can get the four runs as he's ran twice already in France. I've watched those videos before backing him.

Figaroc with just one french run would be one that would be good to get a run into soon.

[Humble Pie]

Just welled up cos Bob Willis has died.
How weird is that.
He was a proper grumpy twat.

Q
His TV persona
Said it as he saw it
Paul Allot on Sky now live , he was there when BW passed
RIP BW

PS Mark Butcher stealing my lines!!!!

[Thistlecrack]

For anyone interested Saint Roi added to any race market on willhills at 25s

[Scooby91]

For anyone interested Saint Roi added to any race market on willhills at 25s

He's atleast interesting, former guy cherel, the only one to have been kept back. Ran in the listed prix finot, the same race which min was bought out of. Quarts du rheu the stable 2nd string before also moving to willie, was well beaten by him twice. Travels beautifully and jumps straight as an arrow. If you watch the race on francegalop he diddnt have the gun put to his head, to say the least.

And Ofcourse, he's far more valuable for a seller like guy, with his novice status kept intact.
The winner went on to finish second next time out to a very good horse in please god, who was one of the leading juveniles and a very exciting one at that until his unfortunate injury. 15L back was figuero, and a further 12L behind was fou delice. And we know all about them, through Fly smart and figaroc.

Paddy up tomorrow after being balloted out of the cahir over 2m previously, and this is his 1st opportunity to run.

[jack1092]

I haven't watched the race tbh but the 2nd string is very average. Presumably he's a fair bit better though, 5Ls on bare result.

[Scooby91]

I haven't watched the race tbh but the 2nd string is very average. Presumably he's a fair bit better though, 5Ls on bare result.

Alot better, imo ofcourse.

[Humble Pie]

He's atleast interesting, former guy cherel, the only one to have been kept back. Ran in the listed prix finot, the same race which min was bought out of. Quarts du rheu the stable 2nd string before also moving to willie, was well beaten by him twice. Travels beautifully and jumps straight as an arrow. If you watch the race on francegalop he diddnt have the gun put to his head, to say the least.

And Ofcourse, he's far more valuable for a seller like guy, with his novice status kept intact.
The winner went on to finish second next time out to a very good horse in please god, who was one of the leading juveniles and a very exciting one at that until his unfortunate injury. 15L back was figuero, and a further 12L behind was fou delice. And we know all about them, through Fly smart and figaroc.

Paddy up tomorrow after being balloted out of the cahir over 2m previously, and this is his 1st opportunity to run.

I know 27/1 Any Race but do you see as Supreme over Ballymore?

[Quevega]

Having backed Abacadabra's for the supreme. Even though he definitely won't win.

I noticed that many have selected him on the prediction thread, and he is a fairly obvious choice at this stage assuming Envoi Allen goes elsewhere.

I decided to re watch the Bumper again today, and also his last run against Envoi Allen.
The two real races he has contested.

Travels lovely, which I always like to see.
But he don't finish as well as he promises or you'd expect.
Think he needs to find that finish from somewhere or he will not win the supreme.

I'd also find it impossible to believe that the bumper is going to produce the 3 novice hurdle winners this season. But you can't fault the form so far.