Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

[jack1092]

As a path to the Supreme, Willie would be quite happy with a maiden hurdle over Christmas and then the Deloitte at the DRF.

That's happened so far once?

Not much to go off there.......Could well be his new method given KD's success.

[Saxon Warrior]

I agree that Willie starts off two or three weeks later than Gordon.

However Willies record in the Supreme shows that of his four winners in the last decade, only Klassical Dream started off as late as Christmas, the other three winners had all debuted by 10th December.

KD’s late debut could have been due to the prevailing weather and ground conditions last winter, and with a wet autumn and safe ground there has been no reasons based on ground conditions this season to delay novice hurdlers debut runs.

Results of Willies best horses in the Supreme in the last 10 years.

2019 Klassical Dream 6/1 WON Supreme, Seasonal Debut 26 Dec Leop (2 runs before Festival)
2018 Getabird 7/4F UNPL Supreme, Seasonal Debut 10 Dec Punch (2 runs before Festival)
2017 Melon 3/1F 2nd Supreme, Seasonal Debut Debut 29 Jan Leop (1 run before Festival) interrupted prep.
2016 Min 15/8F 2nd Supreme, Seasonal Debut 10 Dec Punch (2 runs before Festival)
2015 Douvan 2/1F WON Supreme, Seasonal Debut 22 Nov Gowran (2 runs before Festival)
2014 Vautour 7/2F WON Supreme, Seasonal Debut 7 Dec Navan (3 runs before Festival)
2013 Champagne Fever 5/1 WON Supreme, Seasonal Debut 18 Nov Cork (4 runs before Festival)
2012 Midnight Game 18/1 UNPL Supreme, Seasonal Debut Debut 19 Nov Punch (4 runs before Festival)
2011 Zaidpour 11/1 UNPL Supreme, Seasonal Debut 13 Nov Punch (4 runs before Festival)
2010 Blackstairmountain 12/2 UNPL Supreme, Seasonal Debut 31 Jan Punch (1 run before Festival)

During Willies golden period of three successive Supreme wins they all ran by 10 December.

[ComplyOrDie]

Thanks HF.

As thought, although I didn't do the in-depth analysis you have. Basically don't want anything starting out in the new year though.

[jack1092]

Thanks HF.

As thought, although I didn't do the in-depth analysis you have. Basically don't want anything starting out in the new year though.

The maidens will be hopefully where we'll see him and the others. Mullins has been light on proper good horses in maiden hurdles this year and some have looked to need their runs.

[ComplyOrDie]

The maidens will be hopefully where we'll see him and the others. Mullins has been light on proper good horses in maiden hurdles this year and some have looked to need their runs.

Yeah, RR has two or three (that are of interest), Jon Snow out first, maybe as a sighter for form purposes, I don't know, that would be my guess though.

Figaroc is constantly entered in bumpers, another two this weekend he could end up in, and then obviously Fly Smart, whom we all seem to be waiting for

Hoping the Klassical Dream route is the preferred option, which is why we haven't seen him entered as of yet.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Another way of looking at HFs data is that a horse could debut as late as end of Jan (Melon) and still rock up in the Supreme with a decent chance. Regards Fly Smart definitely no need to be concerned as Willie said he was a bit behind the others.

[archie]

That's happened so far once?

Not much to go off there.......Could well be his new method given KD's success.

Depends when the horse tells him it's ready for the first run. It was the route for Bunk Off Early.

[Saxon Warrior]

Thanks HF.

As thought, although I didn't do the in-depth analysis you have. Basically don't want anything starting out in the new year though.

It’s the same in the Ballymore COD. Willie has not had a Ballymore winner in the last decade that has debuted later than 17 December.

Both of his Ballymore winners debuted on 17 Nov (Faugheen) and 17 Dec (Yorkhill).

The general trend of Willies Supreme and Ballymore well fancied 1st choices that have been placed at the Festival Novice race, is that of those twelve across the two races

5 debuted in November (3 WON)
Douvan (S) won
Champagne Fever (S) won
Next Destination (B)
Nichols Canyon (B)
Faugheen (B) won


4 in early-mid December (2 WON)
Min (S)
Vautour (S) won
Yorkhill (B) won
Pont Alexandra (B)



3 debuted at Christmas or later (1 WON)
Klassical Dream (S) won
Melon (S)
So Young (B)

The assessment based on the above is that with the exception of Klassical Dream (and last years pre-Christmas weather), that the other five times that Willie has won the Supreme or Ballymore in the last decade is that we have seen his Festival winners debut by mid-December at the latest.

[jack1092]

I suppose this could well change now the DRF is about..

[Saxon Warrior]

Of the three Supreme/Ballymore horses that Willie has placed or won in the Supreme/Ballymore and that only started off for him at Christmas or later, all three had lots of prior runs and experience in France.

Klassical Dream (Won Supreme) first Mullins start 26 Dec - had previously ran SEVEN times in France
Melon (2nd in Supreme) first Mullins start 29 Jan - had previously had FOUR starts in France.
So Young (3rd in Ballymore) first Mullins start 28 Dec - had previously had FIVE starts in France.

So one way of viewing it is that anything we are looking at from Willies stable for the Supreme or Ballymore this season, history tells us
Willies 12 winners or placed horses in the Supreme/Ballymore over the last ten years had all either
a) ran for him by mid-December
OR
b) if they started out at Christmas or later that they had a minimum experience level of four races in France before joining him.

[Quevega]

Of the three Supreme/Ballymore horses that Willie has placed or won in the Supreme/Ballymore and that only started off for him at Christmas or later, all three had lots of prior runs and experience in France.

Klassical Dream (Won Supreme) first Mullins start 26 Dec - had previously ran SEVEN times in France
Melon (2nd in Supreme) first Mullins start 29 Jan - had previously had FOUR starts in France.
So Young (3rd in Ballymore) first Mullins start 28 Dec - had previously had FIVE starts in France.

So one way of viewing it is that anything we are looking at from Willies stable for the Supreme or Ballymore this season, history tells us
Willies 12 winners or placed horses in the Supreme/Ballymore over the last ten years had all either
a) ran for him by mid-December
OR
b) if they started out at Christmas or later that they had a minimum experience level of four races in France before joining him.

Prefer to see Fly Smart sooner rather than later then I'd say.

Not sure any or much of it matters though really.
Just got to run faster than the others when they actually get entered and race

[ComplyOrDie]

Prefer to see Fly Smart sooner rather than later then I'd say.

Not sure any or much of it matters though really.
Just got to run faster than the others when they actually get entered and race

But you'd prefer a horse to be battle hardened in the event another is just as fast as him/her, and they go head to head up the hill

[Saxon Warrior]

Prefer to see Fly Smart sooner rather than later then I'd say.

Not sure any or much of it matters though really.
Just got to run faster than the others when they actually get entered and race

Yep Q, all horses are different and stats are broken all the time.

The angle I’m thinking of here is trainers nature and planning.

It’s normal for Willie to debut his top quality novice hurdlers pre-Christmas, not later than that.

Those three that have debuted later and gone on to place in the Supreme/Ballymore had lots of runs in France before joining Willie, so two runs with him still worked out for KD (in a poor Supreme IMHO) and gained places for Melon at 3/1F (S) and So Young at 2/1F (B) in March.

[archie]

The angle I’m thinking of here is trainers nature and planning.

It’s normal for Willie to debut his top quality novice hurdlers pre-Christmas, not later than that.

The trainer's nature is to wait until he thinks a horse is ready to run. Previous racecourse experience, flat or jumps/Ireland, France or UK, is a help in making that decision but he will absolutely not run a horse early unless he thinks that it's ready to roll.

[Quevega]

Yep Q, all horses are different and stats are broken all the time.

The angle I’m thinking of here is trainers nature and planning.

It’s normal for Willie to debut his top quality novice hurdlers pre-Christmas, not later than that.

Those three that have debuted later and gone on to place in the Supreme/Ballymore had lots of runs in France before joining Willie, so two runs with him still worked out for KD (in a poor Supreme IMHO) and gained places for Melon at 3/1F (S) and So Young at 2/1F (B) in March.

They've been quiet on fly smart