Mares Novice Hurdle 2021

[Kevloaf]

That’s true yes.. I’m always very wary with Mullins

A sensible strategy though, can't knock that

[Kevloaf]

Do you think she would have to win the Royal Bond for her to be rated good enough to go to the Mares Novice Hurdle ? I was interested to see Concertista entered for the race. If she were to run, surely she would have a hell of a chance?? Maybe she's not forward enough yet though.

Concertista can't run in the Royal Bond can she?!




No I don't think she'd have to win it to run, but if she's soundly beaten I think she'd take a significant walk in the market and would end up with better Mares than her for the race.

If beaten by a boy in that race though, I'd say it rules out the Supreme/Ballymore and leaves her target much more obvious. Even if she won, I think she'd go short price for the Mares Novice and still run there....

[Lobos]

Concertista can't run in the Royal Bond can she?!




No I don't think she'd have to win it to run, but if she's soundly beaten I think she'd take a significant walk in the market and would end up with better Mares than her for the race.

If beaten by a boy in that race though, I'd say it rules out the Supreme/Ballymore and leaves her target much more obvious. Even if she won, I think she'd go short price for the Mares Novice and still run there....

Re Concertista, she's entered yes and someone on here said she is still classed as a Novice under the Covid rules.

[Run4Home]

Just sounds to me like they have plans to send her to the Supreme/Ballymore... hope I’m wrong of course!

I think your on thinking on the right lines...

Dependent on how shes goes and how she compares to his other novices with determine her target.
In all likelihood I would say there is a 90% chance she'll be in the mares the other 10% depends on how she goes in the royal bond and how the likes of Ferny are going come march.

If we get to march and she is top of his novices / injury to others there is definitely a slight slight chance of the Supreme/Ballymore ; but as I said lots of ifs and buts and I think she'll be in the mares but that's what Mullins comments I think refer too with the slight window of not committing to the mares

[Run4Home]

Concertista can't run in the Royal Bond can she?!

She is eligible to run yes with the novice rule changes this year

[Pendil]

[QUOTE=Lobos;n245843]

Re Concertista, she's entered yes and someone on here said she is still classed as a Novice under the Covid rules. [/QUO
Taint covid rules if you are still a maiden until February you still qualify to run in novice races until the end of November/beginning of December of December like Darver Star last year

[Kevloaf]

Cheers chaps, I'm not sure how I feel about that for Concertista! Interesting to say the least!




Still, I'd be amazed if Mullins sends any mare to any novice hurdle that isn't the mares novice hurdle.... unless they've shown they want 3 miles already.


Supreme runner I'd say was close to 0.01%. Ballymore makes a little sense, but still unlikely. Albert Bartlett if they're boats.



I can't think of any example of Willie not picking the easier race, in the fledging career of the Mares Novice hurdle.


There may be some..... feel free to correct me

[Lobos]

She is eligible to run yes with the novice rule changes this year

If she is declared for the race then surely she'd be a very strong fav with her experience and the allowance plus presumably having a much higher rating than anything else. It'll be very interesting how they price it up. If Mullins mob favour Shewearsitwell over Concertista then she must be the real deal.

[Lobos]

[QUOTE=Pendil;n245847]

Re Concertista, she's entered yes and someone on here said she is still classed as a Novice under the Covid rules. [/QUO
Taint covid rules if you are still a maiden until February you still qualify to run in novice races until the end of November/beginning of December of December like Darver Star last year

Was that rule not brought in because of the stoppage re Covid ? That was my thinking. Perhaps I'm wrong.

[Run4Home]

If she is declared for the race then surely she'd be a very strong fav with her experience and the allowance plus presumably having a much higher rating than anything else. It'll be very interesting how they price it up. If Mullins mob favour Shewearsitwell over Concertista then she must be the real deal.

Couldn't see anything other than Ballyadam being priced up as favourite.

[Lobos]

Couldn't see anything other than Ballyadam being priced up as favourite.

Do you think he'd be good enough to give weight to a battle hardened Mare like Concertista as impressive as she was at the Fez? He'd be some horse to do that after just 1 run.

[Pendil]

[QUOTE=Lobos;n245852]

Was that rule not brought in because of the stoppage re Covid ? That was my thinking. Perhaps I'm wrong.

Yes Lobos you are wrong. In Ireland novices who win before the end of April can still race in novice hurdles until the Royal Bond. Its not covid related

[ComplyOrDie]

That's a really interesting spot!

Even if she's rubbish, using PP as a bit of a guide usually doesn't go too far wide of the mark.

I'm going to have a very speculative bet on her there with 365 at 50s just to see whether that theory pans out!

I think this was noted some time ago on the fourm. She's definitely in the mould of Lets Dance, in terms of route, and it just makes sense to have her on board.

She had issues at the festival for her Triumph run, I believe.

[jack1092]

Do you think he'd be good enough to give weight to a battle hardened Mare like Concertista as impressive as she was at the Fez? He'd be some horse to do that after just 1 run.

That's part of the Concertista Conundrum! She didn't exactly look red hot up until the Mares Novice did she. Similar to Melon, seems to save her best for March.

[Run4Home]

Do you think he'd be good enough to give weight to a battle hardened Mare like Concertista as impressive as she was at the Fez? He'd be some horse to do that after just 1 run.

Concertista has it all to prove for mw, outside of her 1 win at the festival her form is very poor. Her first run last year in November being beaten by Larquebuse, Lunch in Adare etc, maybe she needs a few runs? Patrick M recently in an interview said as much if she doesn't run well coming up to the festival this year again don't let it put you off. I think she was running to RPR of 120-130 in Nov & Dec.

Agreed with allowances it will help but would hope Ballyadam would have enough for her.

I think Mullins runner in RB will be SWIW, N'Golo and Francin ; don't think the rest will run.