2025 Novice Chasers

[Exar Essay]

Impaire et passé talk to me I personally can’t envision him not running at the festival talk preseason of arkle what do you all think happens now with him

My opinion is that they’ll take each other on in the Flogas at the DRf and winner will go to the BANC. Both will only go if it’s a close run thing.

[RoadToCheltenham]

My opinion is that they’ll take each other on in the Flogas at the DRf and winner will go to the BANC. Both will only go if it’s a close run thing.

I'd say you may be right - 2m5f looks the obvious way to go for both now. Personally, I'd be surprised if Impaire Et Passe and Ballyburn even receive entries in the Irish Arkle.

[chunker86]

Would not be surprised if he runs at all but also wouldn't be surprised if he teased it near the festival then didn't run him. The BANC is wide open. The Arkle now is off limits with the front two in the market. That is what it will all be about. He could easily have a chance in the BANC but Willie has seen his arse (oh matron) that there is now only one option left at Cheltenham. It does feel like the changes have been made to give others a chance though to be fair to him and he is quite rightly peeved. He works hard to be the best only to have some chipped off him by the powers that be. Everyone moans about him winning everything and how boring it is but in 10 years those people will be saying how great he was as a trainer and dominated and we will never see the like etc etc. We should applaud the man for doing what he is doing, not deliberately try and take chances away from him. It is up to everybody else to catch up. Nothing stopping IEP running here but he could go elsewhere to make a statement. It's ironic really that there is a proper crop of 2 and a half milers this season that are betwixed in between the two races.

I don't think Majborough is set in stone as miles better than the rest of the 2m division.

Sir Gino, yes he's a bolter and nothing in the division gets close - i'd even go as far as to say that nothing will get as close to Sir Gino this season as Ballyburn did at Kempton.

I'd need to see Majborough back up his debut against some proper horses before saying he's near the same level as Gino.

[Istabraq]

Much depends on how Mullins (and others) will view the new handicap race, there's no upper cut off so any of his top novices could realistically run there, there'll obviously be a reluctance to burden young horses with big weights but the old novice handicap chase only ever had a weight range of about 7lb so maybe the 'restricted' element of the new race will be even more restricted than the conditions suggest.
It may well be that as the cards start to fall in place there'll be one or more without a G1 option, you then need to look at the career projections for those horses and no question the 5yo's will be looked after, has to be a small chance the likes of a Majborough land here...

[ComplyOrDie]

Betfair are usually 'in the know' a little when it comes to the Mullins runners, and bets on Impaire Et Passe for the BANC have, up until now, been greyed out, on my account, but they have recently opened them up again for cash should anyone feel the need to do so.

[Benjy23]

Much depends on how Mullins (and others) will view the new handicap race, there's no upper cut off so any of his top novices could realistically run there, there'll obviously be a reluctance to burden young horses with big weights but the old novice handicap chase only ever had a weight range of about 7lb so maybe the 'restricted' element of the new race will be even more restricted than the conditions suggest.
It may well be that as the cards start to fall in place there'll be one or more without a G1 option, you then need to look at the career projections for those horses and no question the 5yo's will be looked after, has to be a small chance the likes of a Majborough land here...

Aye, since the announcement I've thought Mullins could take this out with one of his classier ones. Not sure if he's still having a tantrum about the change too much to actually do it or not though.

[HoldenTheReins]

Betfair are usually 'in the know' a little when it comes to the Mullins runners, and bets on Impaire Et Passe for the BANC have, up until now, been greyed out, on my account, but they have recently opened them up again for cash should anyone feel the need to do so.

I guess if IEP and Ballyburn race against each other at DRF that could change plans.

I don't know why they don't just try IEP at 3m either.

[Odin]

Much depends on how Mullins (and others) will view the new handicap race, there's no upper cut off so any of his top novices could realistically run there, there'll obviously be a reluctance to burden young horses with big weights but the old novice handicap chase only ever had a weight range of about 7lb so maybe the 'restricted' element of the new race will be even more restricted than the conditions suggest.
It may well be that as the cards start to fall in place there'll be one or more without a G1 option, you then need to look at the career projections for those horses and no question the 5yo's will be looked after, has to be a small chance the likes of a Majborough land here...

I've wondered since the start of the year if he'd send one of his classier ones to this race, like the Punchestown novices handicap chase he's farmed for most of the last 10 years. Initially, I thought it would be Impaire Et Passe if he did, but I wonder now if it would be Ballyburn given he's the one who has had the most struggles as a chaser (if you can call getting beat by Sir Gino a struggle)? I don't really subscribe to the theory that any horse winning the Flogas means they should go to the RSA as I'd highly doubt Dancing City would win it, nor that he's even being aimed at it, but I'd still have him as the best option Willie has over 3m...

[chunker86]

I've wondered since the start of the year if he'd send one of his classier ones to this race, like the Punchestown novices handicap chase he's farmed for most of the last 10 years. Initially, I thought it would be Impaire Et Passe if he did, but I wonder now if it would be Ballyburn given he's the one who has had the most struggles as a chaser (if you can call getting beat by Sir Gino a struggle)? I don't really subscribe to the theory that any horse winning the Flogas means they should go to the RSA as I'd highly doubt Dancing City would win it, nor that he's even being aimed at it, but I'd still have him as the best option Willie has over 3m...

I can't have Ballyburn struggling as a chaser.

He won on debut and then lost by 7 lengths giving 6lbs to what looks like a superstar over 2m round Kempton. He still got a RPR of 158 for that run which is higher than every other novice chaser has put up except Ile Atlantique - who Ballyburn beat by 17 lengths in the Ballymore.

Looks like they have given up on 2 miles, he's Willies best Novice Chaser, so he's heading to the Browns unless he has an absolute disaster at the DRF.

[Saxon Warrior]

Betfair are usually 'in the know' a little when it comes to the Mullins runners, and bets on Impaire Et Passe for the BANC have, up until now, been greyed out, on my account, but they have recently opened them up again for cash should anyone feel the need to do so.

They took him out of the BANC market completely after Willie said theres no race for him at Cheltenham (Aintree or Fairyhouse options after the DRF)

Put him back in yesterday at 16s, and quickly dropped to 12s (as the rest of the market price was 10/1)

Hes going to get entered in that DRF 2M5F race vs Ballyburn in the next hour isnt he?

If he won that, then the "No race for him at Cheltenham" may be hastily reversed post-race - and the BANC could come back into play - maybe

[Odin]

I can't have Ballyburn struggling as a chaser.

He won on debut and then lost by 7 lengths giving 6lbs to what looks like a superstar over 2m round Kempton. He still got a RPR of 158 for that run which is higher than every other novice chaser has put up except Ile Atlantique - who Ballyburn beat by 17 lengths in the Ballymore.

Looks like they have given up on 2 miles, he's Willies best Novice Chaser, so he's heading to the Browns unless he has an absolute disaster at the DRF.

Yes - struggling is probably a bit of an exagerration. I do think he's difficult to place though if they aren't going down the 2m route - Flogas will tell us more and I expect he will go to the RSA, but I reckon Dancing City would beat him over the RSA distance otherwise why the hell would they have targeted the Arkle rather than the RSA in the first place?!

[chunker86]

Yes - struggling is probably a bit of an exagerration. I do think he's difficult to place though if they aren't going down the 2m route - Flogas will tell us more and I expect he will go to the RSA, but I reckon Dancing City would beat him over the RSA distance otherwise why the hell would they have targeted the Arkle rather than the RSA in the first place?!

Willie thought he was a Champion Hurdler - and to be fair his Modus Operandi seems to be to keep them over a shorter distance for as long as possible, until they show that they need a trip and then he pushes them out.

[Craigy14]

Yes - struggling is probably a bit of an exagerration. I do think he's difficult to place though if they aren't going down the 2m route - Flogas will tell us more and I expect he will go to the RSA, but I reckon Dancing City would beat him over the RSA distance otherwise why the hell would they have targeted the Arkle rather than the RSA in the first place?!

I’d say partly what chunker has said about him potentially being a champion hurdle horse and his performances last season didn’t lack gears for all his breeding indicates wanting further.

Least he’s seen sense with Ballyburn, unlike with Vega last year where he kept persisting with 2m with blind faith. I reckon nothing changes imo and Ballyburn is still viewed as the number 1 novice chaser (at present) and the DRF will confirm or change that view for WPM and us all. I reckon he wins the BANC if he goes there, having won the Flogas along the way. There’s really been nothing wrong with his jumping so see no reason why he won’t be even better upped in trip, as we’ve said his breeding suggests he needs. His jumping just wasn’t quick enough for 2milers.

[Block 205]

(2:55) 24D Goffs Irish Arkle Novice S'chase (Grade 1) €88,500.00 ( 2m 1f - 5yo+ ) [MAX 20] NHFrm 3-13-
1 Down Memory Lane (GElliott) ......... 11,12 213-2
2 Firefox (151) (GElliott) ...................... 11,12 1711-
3 Here Comes Georgie (GB) (PNeville(inGB)) ......... 11,12 571-1
4 Ile Atlantique (FR) (153) (WPMullins)................ 11,12 2-1-3
5 Inthepocket (GB) (149) (HdeBromhead) ......... 11,12 1-
6 Jeannot Lapin (FR) (GO'Loughlin) .. 11,12 21U2-
7 Jordans (FR) (145) (JPO'Brien) ....... 11,12 1212-
8 Touch Me Not (GElliott) .................... 11,12 -311-
9 Majborough (FR) (WPMullins) ......... 11,10

[Block 205]

(1:10) 25B Ladbrokes Novice S'chase (Grade 1) €88,500.00 ( 2m 5f 107y - 5yo+ ) [MAX 20] NHFrm 9-P/-
1 Arctic Skua (VLHalley) ..................... 11,10 1112-
2 Ballyburn (WPMullins) ...................... 11,10 1312-
3 Better Days Ahead (GElliott) ............ 11,10 33/-1
4 Champ Kiely (WPMullins) ................ 11,10 P111-
5 Croke Park (GElliott) ......................... 11,10 3111-
6 Dancing City (FR) (WPMullins) ........ 11,10 04F1-
7 Dee Capo (FR) (GElliott) ................... 11,10 571-1
8 Ile Atlantique (FR) (153) (WPMullins) ................ 11,10 1111-
9 Impaire Et Passe (FR) (154) (WPMullins) ................ 11
10 21U2- 10 Jordans (FR) (145) (JPO'Brien) .......
11,10 3551- 11 Lecky Watson (WPMullins) .............. 11,10 2611-
12 Prairie Dancer (134) (JPO'Brien) ..... 11,10 7123-
13 Search For Glory (144) (GElliott) ..... 11,10 1414-
14 Stellar Story (GElliott) ...................... 11,10