2025 Novice Chasers

[Lobos]

He ran well other day, but 3m round Cheltenham?

His form just keeps getting franked and franked again. But like TYC he's so underrated yet done everything right and nothing wrong. Jumps great,travels , has proven speed, guts and stamina. Nothing not to like. Still a fab price as well. I'm lucky to have a big price about him but wouldn't put anyone off backing him at his current odds. The BANC once again looks there for the taking and he's right up there at the head of the queue.

Who's your fancy for the race Carnage??

[That Horse]

What did you make of trainer saying his next race might be 2m5?Depending on ground conditions.

They were probably thinking of Heart Wood finishing a mile back from Galopin and seeing if they can get Ile Atlantique into the Ryanair this year with a view to the Gold Cup next year

[Lobos]

What did you make of trainer saying his next race might be 2m5?Depending on ground conditions.

Absolutely nothing

[Carnage at Taunton]

His form just keeps getting franked and franked again. But like TYC he's so underrated yet done everything right and nothing wrong. Jumps great,travels , has proven speed, guts and stamina. Nothing not to like. Still a fab price as well. I'm lucky to have a big price about him but wouldn't put anyone off backing him at his current odds. The BANC once again looks there for the taking and he's right up there at the head of the queue.

Who's your fancy for the race Carnage??

Better days ahead at this stage.
Don’t think CP will get home well enough.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Absolutely nothing

okey dokey

[Yosser]

His form just keeps getting franked and franked again. But like TYC he's so underrated yet done everything right and nothing wrong. Jumps great,travels , has proven speed, guts and stamina. Nothing not to like. Still a fab price as well. I'm lucky to have a big price about him but wouldn't put anyone off backing him at his current odds. The BANC once again looks there for the taking and he's right up there at the head of the queue.

Who's your fancy for the race Carnage??

I would be delighted if he goes straight to the BANC. It's a 66/1 shot that will probably be about 16s. There are a few of those types still knocking about yet too that i am hoping are avoiding big races or going straight there. The markets will be 90% formed this time next month then we can all tell each other why their handicappers are shit

I have been having a good mooch at the new Novices' Chase this morning. The horses i have listed, i think it will be around 149-152 top rating unless Willie does something ridiculous like throw IEP or Ballyburn in there and give everyone a stone.

[Lobos]

Better days ahead at this stage.
Don’t think CP will get home well enough.

Okey dokey

[Exar Essay]

The way he pings his fences and travels I actually believe IA will be better on better ground. He doesn't need it Soft imo.

Willie said he wants it heavy, suggesting that played a big factor in why he won. And referenced it again for Coastal Paths when Joystick won. His spring campaign was very poor on better ground last year too.

[Lobos]

Willie said he wants it heavy, suggesting that played a big factor in why he won. And referenced it again for Coastal Paths when Joystick won. His spring campaign was very poor on better ground last year too.

Believe it's more to do with him loving the fences more than over hurdles. He is lightning quick over a fence and I reckon better ground will bring about even more improvement. Paul searching for the golden highway () today strengthens my point.

[riccirich]

Willie said he wants it heavy, suggesting that played a big factor in why he won. And referenced it again for Coastal Paths when Joystick won. His spring campaign was very poor on better ground last year too.

I wouldn't dispute that he likes plenty of give in the ground, but I think it's hard to read too much into his form from last spring, as they just made a right mess of him imo. I think the main reason for his poor runs were trying to hold him up at both cheltenham and Aintree over two and a half miles, he was just way too keen and it didn't suit him at all. Patrick even said after the turners last year that a drop back in trip would suit him as he was just wanting to go faster the whole way round, yet they then went to Aintree and done the exact same thing again with the same result. So I think it's hard to be sure that he doesn't go on better ground as poor tactics over the wrong distance were the main factor I think.

[Exar Essay]

I wouldn't dispute that he likes plenty of give in the ground, but I think it's hard to read too much into his form from last spring, as they just made a right mess of him imo. I think the main reason for his poor runs were trying to hold him up at both cheltenham and Aintree over two and a half miles, he was just way too keen and it didn't suit him at all. Patrick even said after the turners last year that a drop back in trip would suit him as he was just wanting to go faster the whole way round, yet they then went to Aintree and done the exact same thing again with the same result. So I think it's hard to be sure that he doesn't go on better ground as poor tactics over the wrong distance were the main factor I think.

It’s hard to be sure at this stage of his career with certainty. But Willie has suggested the ground played in his favour today, and his form is better on soft ground.

I don’t think he was messed around with particularly was he? He was campaigned as a mid-trip horse and did ok in the Lawlors and Ballymore without quite living up to expectations. He then performed below standard and Aintree so they dropped him back for Punchestown to see if he preferred the shorter trip where he bombed out.

I think like a lot of horses this year, he could run over anything 2m to 2m4.

Ground wise, from a sample of 7 hurdle and chase runs his form is better on soft or worse. The two times he’s run on GS/yielding were his worst performances (Aintree and Punchestown).

It’ll be interesting to see if he has an entry in the novice handicap off a big weight in case we get GS on day one as Willie has said he’d go up in trip on better ground.

[riccirich]

It’s hard to be sure at this stage of his career with certainty. But Willie has suggested the ground played in his favour today, and his form is better on soft ground.

I don’t think he was messed around with particularly was he? He was campaigned as a mid-trip horse and did ok in the Lawlors and Ballymore without quite living up to expectations. He then performed below standard and Aintree so they dropped him back for Punchestown to see if he preferred the shorter trip where he bombed out.

I think like a lot of horses this year, he could run over anything 2m to 2m4.

Ground wise, from a sample of 7 hurdle and chase runs his form is better on soft or worse. The two times he’s run on GS/yielding were his worst performances (Aintree and Punchestown).

It’ll be interesting to see if he has an entry in the novice handicap off a big weight in case we get GS on day one as Willie has said he’d go up in trip on better ground.

Imo he was messed around a fair bit, he was very good over 2m in his maiden hurdle, after which he went to the lawlors and travelled and jumped very well in the lead and led everywhere but the line. After that I would have thought 2m would be the best thing, and willie said it himself that it might be the plan for him, but they decided on the turners and tried holding him up to get the trip better but he was very keen and it didn't suit him being restrained, but for some reason they tried the exact same thing again at Aintree even after patrick said himself after the turners they got it wrong. By the time they did revert to 2m it was after having two hard races being very keen at both cheltenham and Aintree and he ran no race at all at punchestown. So the big three festivals went by without him being given a chance to show his best form imo, which I would say was making a mess of it. I think he would have went very close in the supreme if it was him that went there instead of tullyhill.

[Lobos]

Willie did also emphasize that his efficient jumping won him the day moreso than the ground.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Believe it's more to do with him loving the fences more than over hurdles. He is lightning quick over a fence and I reckon better ground will bring about even more improvement. Paul searching for the golden highway () today strengthens my point.

I think for betting purposes it’s best to take note of what his trainer is saying.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Willie said he wants it heavy, suggesting that played a big factor in why he won. And referenced it again for Coastal Paths when Joystick won. His spring campaign was very poor on better ground last year too.

Yep, that’s the worry if backing IA now.
Unless you know what the ground will be(obviously we don’t)then you really need nrmb.
His trainer is clearly only seeing him at 2 m if it’s very soft or heavy.
If it is though and he’s declared he would be one to have onside imo.