If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.
We're looking to upgrade the 'hosting CPU' so I've set up a crowdfunding project.
I would love it if you could donate using the link below to access my project page. Any contribution large or small will be hugely appreciated. Thank you.
Kevloaf @ Fat Jockey
2 of 2<>
Fat Jockey Patrons
HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!
Willie said the NHC "looks made for him" in regards to embassy gardens after the last day I believe, and it was the race stattler won enroute to winning the NHC
Absolutely. He's the last one they'll think about switching imo. He's their NHC number 1.
He can win both!! Think people are clinging on to their NH Chase slip with tinted glasses.
He’s a very good jumper and you are probably right in that he can win both.
Could say that about one or two others entered in both imo.
Maybe the 10 up will help decide things, but I suspect this is another that will go to the wire
So I'm sitting tight for a bit and will weigh the race up again near the day, but he may go in some doubles or I'll have more on at 7-2 or bigger. But it is risky. I wouldn't blame ground and wind myself, but accept that they could both have been a factor, but I'm at a loss to explain it, so given the likely opposition I'd be reasonably ok to put a line through it, and I'd give him extra credit for the Supreme form at the track.
He jumps as good as any other novice and none of them could get near his form as a hurdler. So I cannot fathom some of the potential names being put forward as winners, but he could have issues so is as likely to flop again as return to form, but I'd take 7-2 to find out. With the knowledge I have a few back ups.
Ground was properly chewed up for this meeting. No chance it had recovered from Xmas. Completely different scenario to last year when he ran the royal bond before the rain came then stayed off until festival.
The amount of rain that came down at Xmas made it loose on top but still ok underneath, for his debut (probably more like royal bond type ground). Every chance I'm wrong but it's a very plausible explanation imo and it shouldn't be repeated at festival given the arkle is the first race on fresh ground.
Cc Mighty for an alternative explanation with respect to the poor run
Maybe. Personally don't believe he's quick enough to win a BANC based on his races this season. His and Willies best chance of winning the NHC are with him and it's been that way for some time now. They'll not change their minds now. Plenty of other suitable substitutes to step in.
This is Willie we are talking about he could change his mind on the morning of declarations
Did he seem less confident before the DRF? Or have I imagined that.
Even before the Supreme he was ultra confident but seemed as if that had dropped off a bit? It obviously has now but even before the DRF?
This years ?
I backed in Feb/March last year after he was interviewed on stage at Dublin festival.
"He'll win the supreme and then win the arkle next year" were his almost exact words.
Haven't seen any interviews this year other than him being on track etc.
Ground was properly chewed up for this meeting. No chance it had recovered from Xmas. Completely different scenario to last year when he ran the royal bond before the rain came then stayed off until festival.
The amount of rain that came down at Xmas made it loose on top but still ok underneath, for his debut (probably more like royal bond type ground). Every chance I'm wrong but it's a very plausible explanation imo and it shouldn't be repeated at festival given the arkle is the first race on fresh ground.
Cc Mighty for an alternative explanation with respect to the poor run
That’s an excellent take. I was previously wed to the ‘it’s a breathing issue and Barry is talking flannel about the ground’ opinion, but this has made me think on that. Particularly the bit about the Arkle being on fresh ground (it’ll be in essence the same sort of ‘soft’ as last year if it ends up being soft).
Maybe. Personally don't believe he's quick enough to win a BANC based on his races this season. His and Willies best chance of winning the NHC are with him and it's been that way for some time now. They'll not change their minds now. Plenty of other suitable substitutes to step in.
Does he really? Only one I can think of is Nick Rockett who could easily go NHC too.
Does he really have a RSA horse now? Unless steps F2F up.
Ground was properly chewed up for this meeting. No chance it had recovered from Xmas. Completely different scenario to last year when he ran the royal bond before the rain came then stayed off until festival.
The amount of rain that came down at Xmas made it loose on top but still ok underneath, for his debut (probably more like royal bond type ground). Every chance I'm wrong but it's a very plausible explanation imo and it shouldn't be repeated at festival given the arkle is the first race on fresh ground.
Cc Mighty for an alternative explanation with respect to the poor run
It did turn into a sprint as they went very steady and when asked for his effort after the second last after looking perfectly fine until then - He just failed to pick up and looked like he was in a battle jumping the last, but then missed the last and the jockey basically pulled him up.
So that lack of a gear when asked is what seems out of character, this could be that the others had enough left to match his speed having gone so slow, or he didn't pick up on that ground, or his breathing issue was stopping him going on. Or something completely different.
It's a guessing game. Hopefully he gets spring ground, they go a decent gallop and Barry gets him an inhaler. Or a dose of steroids
This years ?
I backed in Feb/March last year after he was interviewed on stage at Dublin festival.
"He'll win the supreme and then win the arkle next year" were his almost exact words.
Haven't seen any interviews this year other than him being on track etc.
I saw an interview and think Benjy has a point….i do recall thinking that at time now Benjy raises it
That’s an excellent take. I was previously wed to the ‘it’s a breathing issue and Barry is talking flannel about the ground’ opinion, but this has made me think on that. Particularly the bit about the Arkle being on fresh ground (it’ll be in essence the same sort of ‘soft’ as last year if it ends up being soft).
Jamie Codd said in his ATR column ‘’it was as deep and holding as you would get at Leopardstown’
This years ?
I backed in Feb/March last year after he was interviewed on stage at Dublin festival.
"He'll win the supreme and then win the arkle next year" were his almost exact words.
Haven't seen any interviews this year other than him being on track etc.
Yea this year. Just not seen him being quite as confident as he was last year.
Had a quick look for quotes and he does read as if pretty confident to be fair. So maybe I'm overthinking it.
“He loves jumping and I think the ground will probably dry out, I think it’ll be no worse than yielding ground and this horse goes on anything from good ground to soft ground, so that’s not going to be an issue."
It did turn into a sprint as they went very steady and when asked for his effort after the second last after looking perfectly fine until then - He just failed to pick up and looked like he was in a battle jumping the last, but then missed the last and the jockey basically pulled him up.
So that lack of a gear when asked is what seems out of character, this could be that the others had enough left to match his speed having gone so slow, or he didn't pick up on that ground, or his breathing issue was stopping him going on. Or something completely different.
It's a guessing game. Hopefully he gets spring ground, they go a decent gallop and Barry gets him an inhaler. Or a dose of steroids
Exactly how I seen it as well Q, was jumping well and travelling well up until asked for that effort.
Not going to repeat what you’ve said but could be anyone of them as the excuse.
That’s an excellent take. I was previously wed to the ‘it’s a breathing issue and Barry is talking flannel about the ground’ opinion, but this has made me think on that. Particularly the bit about the Arkle being on fresh ground (it’ll be in essence the same sort of ‘soft’ as last year if it ends up being soft).
Barry Connell in today's RP.
Connell reported no clinical abnormalities surfaced in the aftermath and he was happy to put the below-par display down to the testing ground, which he said differed markedly from conditions at the track over Christmas.
"He's 100 per cent, he's very bright since and didn't have a hard race," he said. "There's no clinical reason for why he underperformed. The ground description between Christmas and last weekend was broadly the same but there were two totally different ground types.
"At Christmas, they were watering on Christmas Eve to take the firm out of the ground on the chase track. We also had virgin ground that hadn't been used on the chase track since the previous season so when the rain came on the 27th, it basically was water just sitting on top of a pretty firm surface and there was a good, solid bottom to it. The ground at the weekend was proper soft to heavy, holding ground, and the chase track had been extensively galloped over during Christmas.
"I pulled the horse out of Navan because I didn't want to run him on that kind of ground. He jumped and travelled fine to a point. He's a light-framed, athletic, kind of Flat-bred horse and he was doing most of his running last year on summer ground.
"The ground on the day he won the Royal Bond at Fairyhouse was similar to the ground at Christmas in that there was a bottom to it. I think there was a world of difference between that and last weekend's ground."
He added: "It was a complete headscratcher on the day. He just found it very difficult to get his feet out of the ground and we're just going to put a line through it. The difference in performance between Christmas and last weekend was chalk and cheese. We can't find anything clinically wrong with the horse and I wasn't expecting to. I'm 100 per cent satisfied that the ground was the issue."
We process personal data about users of our site, through the use of cookies and other technologies, to deliver our services, personalize advertising, and to analyze site activity. We may share certain information about our users with our advertising and analytics partners. For additional details, refer to our Privacy Policy.
By clicking "I AGREE" below, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our personal data processing and cookie practices as described therein. You also acknowledge that this forum may be hosted outside your country and you consent to the collection, storage, and processing of your data in the country where this forum is hosted.
Tweet
Comment