2024 Novice Chasers

[Odin]

Quevega what's your acceptable price for marine?

I can buy the ground as an excuse for him...

[TigerRolllllll]

Quevega what's your acceptable price for marine?

I can buy the ground as an excuse for him...

He should be 5-1ish

[Carnage at Taunton]

All this talk about Marine Nationale seems very irrational.
Kevin floaty hair was basically writing him off the other day. Like he was on his death bed.

He's ran one bad race in his life.

Yes, he's had a wind operation but some trainers give every horse an op and often multiple times, it's far from uncommon and actually par for the course and basically a quick win in most instances to make then run faster. They'd take their fucking tongues out if they thought it'd let them get more air in.
Wearing a Funnel is illegal or they'd do that as well.

But everyone and his dog is convinced it was a wind issue that caused the bad run when it could be dozens of other reasons. Horses run below form every day and more often than not it's unexplained.

People saying shit like his head is in the air looking for oxygen is absolute shite, as his head carriage is no different to when he won the supreme.

He is a risk as a betting proposition but the price might get attractive.
I'd be willing to forgive myself.

If I was Barry and I did find something that may have been the cause, I'd fucking tell no one and do my bollocks on him for the arkle.

I think when a horse has a race record like MN has, he can be forgiven one bad run.
Personally, if I am not on him yet…. we’ll even if I was…. I would prefer that run not to be his last run before the festival.
To take current price I would need to be confident to be able to draw a line through that run.
Imo makes sense to wait, as you say the price may get more attractive.
Guess it depends on what’s coming out of the yard in the way of information, and how punters react to that.

[Speedy17]

If the Owners would rather send Embassy Gardens to the NH Chase over the Brown Advisory they're mental. Would you really rather send him to a Grade 2 for 66k ish to the winner in an amateur race, or send him for nearly 100k, grade one, and have Townend on his back. It's easy for me.

[Lobos]

If the Owners would rather send Embassy Gardens to the NH Chase over the Brown Advisory they're mental. Would you really rather send him to a Grade 2 for 66k ish to the winner in an amateur race, or send him for nearly 100k, grade one, and have Townend on his back. It's easy for me.

They'll send him to the race he can win.

[Speedy17]

They'll send him to the race he can win.

He can win both!! Think people are clinging on to their NH Chase slip with tinted glasses.

[FinalFurlong91]

He should be 5-1ish

Don't think I'd even be interested in that

He finished off his race like allegorie de vasy

Like a horse with bad breathing issues

[Odin]

He can win both!! Think people are clinging on to their NH Chase slip with tinted glasses.

He wouldn't beat fact to file or stay away fay imo. Other than that he's right up there. I think he wins the NH chase irrespective of potential opponents

[Quevega]

Quevega what's your acceptable price for marine?

I can buy the ground as an excuse for him...

I'm already on from before Cheltenham last year when Barry promised he would win the arkle.
It was one of the few races I bet early on this year.

Also have FaF, Vega, Hunters and Gaelic all at decent odds. small amount on Iroko at 85's

So I'm sitting tight for a bit and will weigh the race up again near the day, but he may go in some doubles or I'll have more on at 7-2 or bigger. But it is risky. I wouldn't blame ground and wind myself, but accept that they could both have been a factor, but I'm at a loss to explain it, so given the likely opposition I'd be reasonably ok to put a line through it, and I'd give him extra credit for the Supreme form at the track.

He jumps as good as any other novice and none of them could get near his form as a hurdler. So I cannot fathom some of the potential names being put forward as winners, but he could have issues so is as likely to flop again as return to form, but I'd take 7-2 to find out. With the knowledge I have a few back ups.

[Odin]

He should be 5-1ish

Only need to find an even money roll up shout and I'm in the game then

I'd be hoping for 4/1+ but not sure it's gonna happen. If I'm right about the ground, 11/4 will look very big post-race. Big if though

[TigerRolllllll]

Only need to find an even money roll up shout and I'm in the game then

I'd be hoping for 4/1+ but not sure it's gonna happen. If I'm right about the ground, 11/4 will look very big post-race. Big if though

Wait til nearer day….think be better prices than now

[Quevega]

He should be 5-1ish

I'd like that, but some of the horses at around 10-1 are no where near as talented.
A lot of the markets are biased right now due to the recent form in Dublin.

[Zachx02]

Willie said the NHC "looks made for him" in regards to embassy gardens after the last day I believe, and it was the race stattler won enroute to winning the NHC

[Mighty]

The Betfair pod is worth a listen. Kevin Blake very negative on his chances (breeding, wind, head carriage). I went back and looked at his previous runs on soft/heavy, and he clearly won, but they were over hurdles.

I don’t think MN wins now - feeling very pessimistic. It was that this was a first test for him over fences against reasonable opposition and he should have put them away.

[Lobos]

He can win both!! Think people are clinging on to their NH Chase slip with tinted glasses.

Maybe. Personally don't believe he's quick enough to win a BANC based on his races this season. His and Willies best chance of winning the NHC are with him and it's been that way for some time now. They'll not change their minds now. Plenty of other suitable substitutes to step in.