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2024 Novice Chasers

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  • Originally posted by charlie View Post

    Not really pal. It's that time of year where we get one more opportunity to see Willies best and trying to read between the lines pre DRF can pay handsomely.

    When was the last time Willie sent two top notchers to the BANC? I cant remember him ever doing it. He tends to either have the fav and nothing else, or a shortie and a few outsiders. Something has to give. FTF doesn't have a NHC chance entry whereas GW does. That means they want that as an option, potentially.

    I think FTF looks the more impressive of the two and if he wins at the DRF I don't think they'll be in a rush to repose FTF with GW, so what do they do?

    Yes, they have Embassy Gardens, Nick Rockett, Minella Cocooner or Meetingofthewaters, but if the NHC were run tomorrow do you think any of them would lay a glove on Grangeclare West? I certainly don't and if you agree, its a good bet no?

    Re Jockeys, I don't think Willie would put Paul's desire to ride GW in the BANC ahead of his own sons in the NHC, but thats a highly subjective view based on nothing other than a guess.


    Agree he hasn’t raced 2 top notchers in the BANC but with his ammunition these days he has no option to surely? That gives him the best chance of winning the BANC imo. Running 1 doesn’t give him that and I don’t think any of the ‘also rans’ would place. The English look to have a relatively strong hand with Grey Dawning (possibly) and Stay Away Fay, then add in the other Irish runners, Monty’s Star etc.

    Fav for the Turners in Gaelic Warrior and also antepost favs (Nick Rockett and Embassy Gardens) for the NHC. The DRF could also throw Fact To File to the Turners if he didn’t trust Gaelic Warrior, which would leave Grangeclare West his number 1 for the BANC if he won or narrow defeat by Fact To File.

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    • When fact to file batters grangeclare in the flogas he will realise he only has one top notcher for the BANC

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      • I'm completely with Charlie with this, and think if Fact To File puts Grangeclare West away tidily at the DRF, then there's every chance that Grangeclare West goes to the NH chase. In reverse that could put Fact To File to the Turners. If they are close they both go to the Brown Advisory.

        FWIW I think Fact To file will put Grangeclare West away, and I covered him for the NH Chase accordingly. If he doesn't no harm done.

        Also, if Grangeclare West goes to the NH chase, I'd then expect Nick Rockett to be Townend's ride in the Browns.

        Essentially none of the three scenarios would surprise me if they happened. This is Willie Mullins. So it makes sense to cover as Charlie suggests.
        Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

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        • Originally posted by charlie View Post

          By complete luck I did this a few hours before skybet went NRNB and he's been installed at the 3/1f.
          The antepost markets are still up on this one. So the 20-1 still there.
          For anyone interested.
          Done the funky double now at small stakes as the prices 5/2 & 20-1 are currently best, and likely to shorten both ways.
          Last edited by Quevega; 19 January 2024, 11:18 AM.

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          • Good debate nonetheless gents (think you all are ).

            Roll on the DRF then to see what plays out.

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            • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post

              Hunters Yarn and Il Etait Temps will likely drop back in trip. Blood Destiny could also drop back in trip. Facile Vega, the only one of the 4 that looks like he could go out in trip. 7/1 NRNB for the Turners is very very fair, I actually think, based on his Supreme 2nd is probably one of the overpriced ones.
              I just can't have him for anything now.

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              • With regards to the whole Grangeclare West / Fact To File debate, does anyone think it could be dependant on the going on the day?

                I see Grangeclare West as a stout stayer, and soft or worse he'd probably appreciate more than the quicker Fact To File, who I suspect will benefit from Good/Soft or Soft would likely be fine too, but not heavy.

                I wouldn't be dead against GW in the NH Chase, though I don't think this is the route they really want to go with him.

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                • Originally posted by Lobos View Post

                  I just can't have him for anything now.
                  That's fair enough. I imagine many would have said the same for Melon, and he was only just touched off in a Turners, when done on the line by Samcro.

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                  • Originally posted by Craigy14 View Post
                    Good debate nonetheless gents (think you all are ).

                    Roll on the DRF then to see what plays out.
                    I think people's opinion will differ on this depending on what their books look like Craig. If you think you're pretty much covered and in a good position in the Browns, NH Chase, and Turners, you have to do this, or there's a risk you are left with a big hole that requires funds that could stop an (almost) guaranteed winning position. If there are still holes to be filled then perhaps not. I think it'll be specific to peoples book positions.
                    Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Spectre View Post

                      I think people's opinion will differ on this depending on what their books look like Craig. If you think you're pretty much covered and in a good position in the Browns, NH Chase, and Turners, you have to do this, or there's a risk you are left with a big hole that requires funds that could stop an (almost) guaranteed winning position. If there are still holes to be filled then perhaps not. I think it'll be specific to peoples book positions.
                      Yeh thats a very fair point. I, for example, have been all over FTF for the BANC (and any race) for a while so I struggle to see GW beating him at the DRF and therefore that stance informs my NHC cover bet. Safe to say, GW beating FTF would suck, unless you're Kev, in which case you are happy haha

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                      • Originally posted by Spectre View Post

                        I think people's opinion will differ on this depending on what their books look like Craig. If you think you're pretty much covered and in a good position in the Browns, NH Chase, and Turners, you have to do this, or there's a risk you are left with a big hole that requires funds that could stop an (almost) guaranteed winning position. If there are still holes to be filled then perhaps not. I think it'll be specific to peoples book positions.
                        Absolutely.
                        I've been trying to remember to point out my position when discussing stuff like this.
                        I've got 5 or 6 in the book for most of the novice races by now.

                        On the Grangeclare West thing again, I've just covered after originally going to wait. But expect he will likely run elsewhere (BANC), I also covered him for the Turners at small stakes on exchange, just in case.
                        I don;t want to be left having to play him at small odds when I'd not be confident in him winning any race at the festival.
                        I could consider for a NRNB double or multiple near the time with other horses I've missed of course, but I've opted for the related double now instead, for the minute.

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                        • Originally posted by Spectre View Post

                          I think people's opinion will differ on this depending on what their books look like Craig. If you think you're pretty much covered and in a good position in the Browns, NH Chase, and Turners, you have to do this, or there's a risk you are left with a big hole that requires funds that could stop an (almost) guaranteed winning position. If there are still holes to be filled then perhaps not. I think it'll be specific to peoples book positions.
                          Aye very true Paul.

                          Don’t get me wrong I can sort of see where Charlie is coming from. It’s just the fact he’s potentially their best staying novice at present, that’s why I’d find it hard to see him going NHC. A lot of ifs buts and maybes, but I suppose sometimes you take a gamble it could pay off handsomely.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Craigy14 View Post

                            Aye very true Paul.

                            Don’t get me wrong I can sort of see where Charlie is coming from. It’s just the fact he’s potentially their best staying novice at present, that’s why I’d find it hard to see him going NHC. A lot of ifs buts and maybes, but I suppose sometimes you take a gamble it could pay off handsomely.
                            I can also see the angle but 20/1 doesn't seems seem big enough to me for the risk/reward. I'd have wanted double those odds, which probably means 20/1 is priced about right (in my mind).

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                            • Originally posted by FinalFurlong91 View Post
                              When fact to file batters grangeclare in the flogas he will realise he only has one top notcher for the BANC
                              He had one top notcher for the BANC a few years age but ended up running him in the Turners much to the amazement of most on here
                              Galopin won the Flogas easily that year
                              The main reason he gave for this was he didn’t want to over phase a young inexperienced horse in the BANC
                              This makes me think he will run Fact to File in the Turners
                              Last edited by Liammet; 19 January 2024, 02:55 PM.

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                              • Originally posted by Liammet View Post
                                He had one top notcher for the BANC a few years age but ended up running him in the Turners much to the amazement of most on here
                                The main reason he gave for this was he didn’t want to over phase a young inexperienced horse in the BANC
                                This makes me think he will run Fact to File in the Turners
                                I could only see him in the turner's if gaelic warrior runs in the arkle

                                Galopin went turners because of the speed of his jumping

                                Fact to file is a solid jumper but nothing like as fast as galopin

                                He was losing ground early on behind minella cocooner and could get taken out of his comfort zone in a turners

                                He wins the flogas I'd be shocked if he ran in the turner's

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