2024 Novice Chasers

[Faugheen_Machine]

A risky bet but I am going to chance Grangeclare West for the National Hunt Chase @ 20/1 (Skybet). He's actually joint fav with the NRMB concession.

it's worth sticking some money up on the exchange. The last price matched was around 50.0 and there's a few quid available north of 21.0 too.

[Exar Essay]

The greedy angle, I love it

My approach is to be greedy with these sorts of speculators. All or nothing!

[Quevega]

it's worth sticking some money up on the exchange. The last price matched was around 50.0 and there's a few quid available north of 21.0 too.

He's been triple figures for the turners also, which is also an option.

[Faugheen_Machine]

He's been triple figures for the turners also, which is also an option.

I think he's nailed on to run in the BANC but would be looking to the exchanges if I thought otherwise.

[Quevega]

I think he's nailed on to run in the BANC but would be looking to the exchanges if I thought otherwise.

If Mullins wins the Flogas with one he likes, then they will become No1 for either the Turners or BANC I reckon, then the others will slot around that.

So depends what they do with Gaelic (where he runs and what he does). If he ends up as still clear FAV and heading to the Turners after Dublin then this makes it more likely the Flogas winner (assuming this is not Gaelic) goes BANC IMO.

If it's Fact to File that wins the Flogas then this means Grangeclare West becomes a slot in horse (assuming he's beaten in the Flogas), or like Charlie suggests could be put in the grade 2 as Fav.

This is where Townend may have his say, so if he doesn;t get the ride on Fact to File I reckon you're right - but depends on the manner of his defeat in the Flogas.
If Townend has no chance of riding Fact to File full stop, then he might run in the Turners as the owners will have their say on this horse.

[Faugheen_Machine]

If Mullins wins the Flogas with one he likes, then they will become No1 for either the Turners or BANC I reckon, then the others will slot around that.

So depends what they do with Gaelic (where he runs and what he does). If he ends up as still clear FAV and heading to the Turners after Dublin then this makes it more likely the Flogas winner (assuming this is not Gaelic) goes BANC IMO.

If it's Fact to File that wins the Flogas then this means Grangeclare West becomes a slot in horse (assuming he's beaten in the Flogas), or like Charlie suggests could be put in the grade 2 as Fav.

This is where Townend may have his say, so if he doesn;t get the ride on Fact to File I reckon you're right - but depends on the manner of his defeat in the Flogas.
If Townend has no chance of riding Fact to File full stop, then he might run in the Turners as the owners will have their say on this horse.

As you say, there are plenty of moving parts in where these horse will end up.

The biggest conundrum is Gaelic Warrior. They surely have to go left handed prior to Cheltenham but would they want to do that at the DRF?

[Quevega]

As you say, there are plenty of moving parts in where these horse will end up.

The biggest conundrum is Gaelic Warrior. They surely have to go left handed prior to Cheltenham but would they want to do that at the DRF?

The antepost prices at the minute for Dublin suggest he's not running there.
But who knows where else he might run.
Not many grade ones that's for sure unless he's comes over here for the scilly.

[Faugheen_Machine]

The antepost prices at the minute for Dublin suggest he's not running there.
But who knows where else he might run.
Not many grade ones that's for sure unless he's comes over here for the scilly.

I'm keen to lay him at Cheltenham so I'd quite like him to stay RH until then. The Scilly Isles would suit him - not a bad shout!

[Quevega]

As you say, there are plenty of moving parts in where these horse will end up.

The biggest conundrum is Gaelic Warrior. They surely have to go left handed prior to Cheltenham but would they want to do that at the DRF?

Biggest shuffler would be if the French horse is coming over to be fair.
That might move a few horses.
Willie certainly wouldn't go in mob handed with that in the race I think ?

[Faugheen_Machine]

Biggest shuffler would be if the French horse is coming over to be fair.
That might move a few horses.
Willie certainly wouldn't go in mob handed with that in the race I think ?

True. Gaelic Warrior v IEF would be the race I'd most look forward to. Unlikely to happen though. Think we'll have to wait for the KG

[Madmoose]

The antepost prices at the minute for Dublin suggest he's not running there.
But who knows where else he might run.
Not many grade ones that's for sure unless he's comes over here for the scilly.

The Scilly makes sense but i thought they would sample left handed at the DRF like last season when he won that handicap hurdle.

[Quevega]

The Scilly makes sense but i thought they would sample left handed at the DRF like last season when he won that handicap hurdle.

Going left handed definitely makes sense but not sure there’s a race outside Dublin unless he steps down a grade or 2 - which is possible for sure and probably most likely looking at odds for Dublin. I’d be surprised if he comes over here before Cheltenham.

[Quevega]

True. Gaelic Warrior v IEF would be the race I'd most look forward to. Unlikely to happen though. Think we'll have to wait for the KG

The fact they entered him and he’s already back in the yard gives it every chance.
Theyve said they’ll look at the opposition
who will they be worried about ???

I think if it fits there schedule and he’s fit and well then he’ll run.

[Faugheen_Machine]

The fact they entered him and he’s already back in the yard gives it every chance.
Theyve said they’ll look at the opposition
who will they be worried about ???

I think if it fits there schedule and he’s fit and well then he’ll run.

Big price on the exchanges considering its his only entry.

He'd be favourite, if lining up, imo.

[charlie]

A risky bet but I am going to chance Grangeclare West for the National Hunt Chase @ 20/1 (Skybet). He's actually joint fav with the NRMB concession.

Entries don't mean a whole lot because Willie mass enters but GW is entered in the NHC (FTF isn't) so they must have thought about it.

After GW won Willie said 'We were looking at it and asking ourselves is he a Brown Advisory horse? But we nominated Fact To File for that. The winner could go for the Brown Advisory and Fact To File might go to the Turners, but we'll see, it's a nice problem to have'. I didn't like that quote as I'd like to see FTF go BANC, but the vibes and market suggest thats where he'll end up.

If, like me, you think Fact To File will beat GW in the Grade 1 over 2m5f then what does Willie do with GW? I appreciate GW is a Grade 1 winner over 3m but I think it's fair to question that form. Both the 2nd and 3rd that day are seemingly NHC bound now and being well backed for the race. If you are Willie or Patrick you know you have their number so I think defeat at the DRF might make the NHC tempting as they would almost certainly have the BANC favourite in FTF, with some decent peripheral chances as well.

CPS don't care where their horses go over jumps so Willie will be allowed to send GW wherever he wants. You don't have to look further back than last year to find a G1 winner over 3m who lost at the DRF over 2m5f that ended up not just in the NHC, but won the NHC (Gaillard Du Mesnil).

The calibre of horse that competes in the NHC is on the up and trainers like Willie and Gordon have realised that a solid amateur over a slightly shorter distance off levels vs inferior rivals gives horse on the cusp of being grade 1 level a great chance to bag a cheltenham winner. I think thats the sort of horse that GW will end up being.

The case has lots of moving parts and plenty of ifs. I'll know my fate at the DRF because if GW wins or runs really well then the bet is basically rendered dead, however, if FTF beats him and the NHC gets floated as an option, 20's goes into a short single figures within minutes and he'd be the the sort of horse that could go off 2/1 or even shorter. Most firms go 10's and 12's and he's 4's NRMB, so 20/1 is a risk I am happy taking, for all I appreciate the BANC is more likely.

By complete luck I did this a few hours before skybet went NRNB and he's been installed at the 3/1f.