2024 Novice Chasers

[darlojim]

Just had conversation with RTC regarding how many festival winners Mullins has had that were beaten first time up in that particular discipline.. I only had time to go back 10years or so ~2013

Supreme

AI - W
KD - W
Douvan - W
Vautour - W
Champagne - W


Ballymore

IEP - W
SG - W
Yorkhill - W
Faugheen - W


Bartlett

TNG - W
Monkfish - L 2nd
Penhill - W

Arkle

El Fab - W
DDG - L 2nd
Footpad - W
Douvan - W
UDS - F (then 1st)


Turners

Yorkhill - W
Black hercules - W
Vautour - W
Sir Des champs - W


RSA

Monkfish - W
Don Poli - W

[Zachx02]

Patrick Mullins on Fact To File: "Probably the further the better for him I think. He could be a four mile chaser - though I may have to pull a few favours there!"

Doesn't sound like the Turners, chaps.

Wouldnt derek o connor get first dibs?

[Liammet]

Patrick Mullins on Fact To File: "Probably the further the better for him I think. He could be a four mile chaser - though I may have to pull a few favours there!"

Doesn't sound like the Turners, chaps.

Read this quote and was instantly reminded of Minella Rocco

Owner loves the race

[hardheld]

Really cant see F2F going NHC. He Ran pretty keen, and now with IROKO being ruled out, I would say it’s even more unlikely.

[AaronLad]

Read this quote and was instantly reminded of Minella Rocco

Owner loves the race

JP has had 0 runners in the last 4 renewals, since it was changed to the current distance.

[charlie]

Patrick Mullins on Fact To File: "Probably the further the better for him I think. He could be a four mile chaser - though I may have to pull a few favours there!"

Doesn't sound like the Turners, chaps.

Music to my ears this.

[charlie]

Over the weekend, the one that impressed me most as a potential winner in March was Broadway Boy if NTD aims him at the NHC. A decent time compared to a competitive earlier handicap (that was half a furlong longer in trip) and the extra distance shouldn't be a problem. Bellamy said as much straight after the race and you'd think that the main problem might be persuading connections that it's the race to go for. By extension, that makes Flooring Porter more interesting in the BANC.

He's definitely gone under the radar but I don't think the NHC would suit his run style as he likes to make all and get into a rhythm out in front. As you said, it was a decent time and NTD has eluded to him not being slow so I'm not sure they'll be in a rush to step up. He's just posted an RPR of 153 having run to 143 and 146 previously. TRW won the same race last year posting 144 and he's clearly a young and improving novice chaser. I love the solid Cheltenham experience he's banking too. 3/4 at Cheltenham, steadily progressive RPR's, improving, trainer won the race before, name checked BANC, jumps well and stays well. Can't say that about lots of horses at 10/1 or less, let alone 40/1 which is unbelievable really. Anyone and everyone should take that price IMO, it just makes sense. Despite all that covering for the NHC prob makes sense too.

[AaronLad]

He's definitely gone under the radar but I don't think the NHC would suit his run style as he likes to make all and get into a rhythm out in front. As you said, it was a decent time and NTD has eluded to him not being slow so I'm not sure they'll be in a rush to step up. He's just posted an RPR of 153 having run to 143 and 146 previously. TRW won the same race last year posting 144 and he's clearly a young and improving novice chaser. I love the solid Cheltenham experience he's banking too. 3/4 at Cheltenham, steadily progressive RPR's, improving, trainer won the race before, name checked BANC, jumps well and stays well. Can't say that about lots of horses at 10/1 or less, let alone 40/1 which is unbelievable really. Anyone and everyone should take that price IMO, it just makes sense. Despite all that covering for the NHC prob makes sense too.

You're quite right about Broadway boy(BB) charlie, But you're clearly missing the most obvious piece of information.
BB's sole defeat at cheltenham came to flooring porter (FP) the two times champion stayers hurdler, and it's fair to say FP won cosily.
The gallop FP will set in the banc will be a formidable test, he won 2 stayers, he will not get tired in the banc.
How on earth he is still a best price 12/1 I don't know, my only worry is he proves to be so good the race for him becomes the one on friday.

[Exar Essay]

You're quite right about Broadway boy(BB) charlie, But you're clearly missing the most obvious piece of information.
BB's sole defeat at cheltenham came to flooring porter (FP) the two times champion stayers hurdler, and it's fair to say FP won cosily.
The gallop FP will set in the banc will be a formidable test, he won 2 stayers, he will not get tired in the banc.
How on earth he is still a best price 12/1 I don't know, my only worry is he proves to be so good the race for him becomes the one on friday.

I don't disagree that FP is a good bet ... but ... he is an 8yo rising 9 whereby his scope for improvement is probably less than 5yo Broadway Boy. Also worth noting that FP was getting 5lb that day, although I'd say FP had another couple of lbs in hand at least. Add to that, the BANC looks such a deep race this year and I'd say 12/1 is about fair for FP. And 25/1 fair for BB. In fact, the only horse priced poorly in my view is Gaelic Warrior. You could make a case for just about every other horse in the market at their price.

[AaronLad]

I don't disagree that FP is a good bet ... but ... he is an 8yo rising 9 whereby his scope for improvement is probably less than 5yo Broadway Boy. Also worth noting that FP was getting 5lb that day, although I'd say FP had another couple of lbs in hand at least. Add to that, the BANC looks such a deep race this year and I'd say 12/1 is about fair for FP. And 25/1 fair for BB. In fact, the only horse priced poorly in my view is Gaelic Warrior. You could make a case for just about every other horse in the market at their price.

I agree to some extent with what you're saying, with FP's age, but he's not an averaqe horse going chasing and looking to improve, he just needs to have that base ability that won him 2 stayers and i believe it remains and so does gavin cromwell most importaantly.
Faugheen for example didn't look like he retained his ability when he was running his final hurdle runs, although the 3rd in the stayers was encouraging. he went chasing as an 11yo recording rprs of 147, 166, 164 and 163 finishing a very close 3rd in the turners.
Flooring porter is 3 years younger, the age argument does not concern me in the slightest with him.
If you don't think the comparison to faugheen is a fair one, i'd be interested to hear why.

[charlie]

You're quite right about Broadway boy(BB) charlie, But you're clearly missing the most obvious piece of information.
BB's sole defeat at cheltenham came to flooring porter (FP) the two times champion stayers hurdler, and it's fair to say FP won cosily.
The gallop FP will set in the banc will be a formidable test, he won 2 stayers, he will not get tired in the banc.
How on earth he is still a best price 12/1 I don't know, my only worry is he proves to be so good the race for him becomes the one on friday.

It's about value, Aaron. FP is really obvious and not missed at all. He's 3rd favourite in the market and we know a fair bit about him. FP has always been underestimated but BB is 4 times the price having given FP 5lbs LTO, so he's far less obvious. The case for one being value at a huge price does not mean there aren't better more obvious chances at shorter prices - thats quite literally why they are priced shorter! I love FP and he's a very good horse but he comes with his quirks, hasn't always been easy to keep sound and you can count the number of BANC winners aged 9 or above on one hand. I do like him at 12/1 though and I think that is very very fair, but I think Gold Cup talk is extremely premature. Maybe next year.

[AaronLad]

It's about value, Aaron. FP is really obvious and not missed at all. He's 3rd favourite in the market and we know a fair bit about him. FP has always been underestimated but BB is 4 times the price having given FP 5lbs LTO, so he's far less obvious. The case for one being value at a huge price does not mean there aren't better more obvious chances at shorter prices - thats quite literally why they are priced shorter! I love FP and he's a very good horse but he comes with his quirks, hasn't always been easy to keep sound and you can count the number of BANC winners aged 9 or above on one hand. I do like him at 12/1 though and I think that is very very fair, but I think Gold Cup talk is extremely premature. Maybe next year.

Maybe the related double FP (banc) and BB (nhc) is a way of you covering BB for the NHC . small stakes big reward.

[charlie]

Maybe the related double FP (banc) and BB (nhc) is a way of you covering BB for the NHC . small stakes big reward.

I actually really like that.

[Runragged]

I don't think the NHC would suit his run style as he likes to make all and get into a rhythm out in front

The ability to travel and jump is exactly what you need in the NHC. Getting in a rhythm helps to see the trip out and it is not as though he is a tearaway who has to lead. He settled fine in behind Flooring Porter in the end. My initial thought after the race was that he would be well suited to the NHC and would go well for a long way. However, he is sure to be vulnerable to a much classier type from the bigger yards. Mullins and Elliott have such a strong hand that they can throw 150+ rated horses at the race and still have strength for the BANC. Salvador Ziggy is already a 153 rated horse who has been well touted for the NHC. Class has always played a prominent part in the NHC and seems even more so since the drop in trip.

Interesting you also bring up age RE Flooring Porter. The last 9yo+ to win the BANC was Minnehoma in 1992. In that time only 3 6yos (and one 5yo when they got all the allowances) has won, as Broadway Boy would be. Only one 6yo has won this century...

Finally, according to RPRs Flooring Porter form dropped by around 6lb last season from the season before that. That was still 2lb below the best he achieved in the Stayers hurdle in 2021. To me that suggests the horse is in decline and knowing he is no longer good enough to win a Stayers Hurdle then connections are rolling the dice with chasing. There is only so many times a horse can go to the well and with 26 races to his name before he is even 9 then you wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't as good as once was. However, chasing could rejuvenate him and it was a very promising debut which has been franked. With older horses though who have had several years hurdling I tend to ignore what they achieved previously as they can get set in their ways and chasing is a different discipline. Not for me but if you take a horses past as his ability then I can understand why you can be keen on him.

[Rooster Booster]

I agree to some extent with what you're saying, with FP's age, but he's not an averaqe horse going chasing and looking to improve, he just needs to have that base ability that won him 2 stayers and i believe it remains and so does gavin cromwell most importaantly.
Faugheen for example didn't look like he retained his ability when he was running his final hurdle runs, although the 3rd in the stayers was encouraging. he went chasing as an 11yo recording rprs of 147, 166, 164 and 163 finishing a very close 3rd in the turners.
Flooring porter is 3 years younger, the age argument does not concern me in the slightest with him.
If you don't think the comparison to faugheen is a fair one, i'd be interested to hear why.

In general horses have a certain amount of miles in their legs particularly the ones that are very hard on themselves in each and every race like Flooring Porter, and it’s not just the racing but the training. He had a very busy time of it as a four year old and the trainer has I think tried to compensate for that by lessening his load a little but I have some reservations whether FP can now withstand a seasons training AND pitch up in March in the best possible shape. Yes there are always exceptions perhaps like Faugheen but the exceptions prove the rule. He is priced fairly but not amazingly at this very early stage of the season imo.