2024 Novice Chasers

[TigerRolllllll]

Iroko......


"He seems to be doing well, better than expected," he explained. "He's back in work and we'll see how we go, it's still not a definite we'll get to Cheltenham but we put him in just in case. If he does get there he'll probably have to go straight to Cheltenham, we can't get a run into him as there aren't many suitable races.
"We might just have to give him a good racecourse gallop and go straight there. But we're just playing it by ear."

They have enough time ….got to think could chance he turns up in Turners with a shout

[Lobos]

They have enough time ….got to think could chance he turns up in Turners with a shout

Yep. FTF could then go BANC with CC free to go NHC.

[TigerRolllllll]

Yep. FTF could then go BANC with CC free to go NHC.

That would be my guess ….I’d prefer F2F in Turners ….but agree re ur logic

Not sure why Iroko has Arkle option ? Guess just cover or of race falls apart

[Lobos]

That would be my guess ….I’d prefer F2F in Turners ….but agree re ur logic

Not sure why Iroko has Arkle option ? Guess just cover or of race falls apart

......or in case deep ground fez

[Runragged]

As I have gone a couple of days without mentioning him Grey Dawning got a 162 RPR for his win last weekend...

[jrjr]

He reminds me of ramillies too

In that Willie likes him but he's not very good

That’s how I see him, even Patrick was trying to talk him up earlier this season saying he’d come back a lot stronger etc.

Hope Cocooner puts in a big shift this Saturday and becomes their number one for this race. Been against Nick Rockett running here owing to his lack of hurdling experience, however, if Cocooner flops then I think they’ll try and get NR qualified and skip the DRF.

[ComplyOrDie]

As I have gone a couple of days without mentioning him Grey Dawning got a 162 RPR for his win last weekend...

Massively exaggerated, IMO.

Suddenly Broadway Boy has run 28lbs below his previous figure and Apple Away some 10lbs below her previous figure. The reality is they cut each others throats, and the manner of victory was hugely exaggerated. I still suspect he may have won on the day had it been run in a way that wasn't so set up for him, but that's mostly because I don't rate the other two anyway.

Certainly wouldn't be against him for the BANC, but the manner of victory and RPR achieved from that race is still largely over estimated, IMO.

[Lobos]

As I have gone a couple of days without mentioning him Grey Dawning got a 162 RPR for his win last weekend...

Well deserved on demolition job of two highly rated horses. Big improver.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Massively exaggerated, IMO.

Suddenly Broadway Boy has run 28lbs below his previous figure and Apple Away some 10lbs below her previous figure. The reality is they cut each others throats, and the manner of victory was hugely exaggerated. I still suspect he may have won on the day had it been run in a way that wasn't so set up for him, but that's mostly because I don't rate the other two anyway.

Certainly wouldn't be against him for the BANC, but the manner of victory and RPR achieved from that race is still largely over estimated, IMO.

Would not surprise me if Broadway has had one hard run too many to be honest

[ComplyOrDie]

Would not surprise me if Broadway has had one hard run too many to be honest

Absolutely, which likely means the distance beaten is not a true reflection.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Absolutely, which likely means the distance beaten is not a true reflection.

Yep, I thought that at the time.

[Lobos]

His Haydock win when he ran and galloped/jumped GDM into the ground was ultra impressive too. That's how I'd like to see him run in the Tuners if he went there. Pour it on from the front.

[charlie]

A risky bet but I am going to chance Grangeclare West for the National Hunt Chase @ 20/1 (Skybet). He's actually joint fav with the NRMB concession.

Entries don't mean a whole lot because Willie mass enters but GW is entered in the NHC (FTF isn't) so they must have thought about it.

After GW won Willie said 'We were looking at it and asking ourselves is he a Brown Advisory horse? But we nominated Fact To File for that. The winner could go for the Brown Advisory and Fact To File might go to the Turners, but we'll see, it's a nice problem to have'. I didn't like that quote as I'd like to see FTF go BANC, but the vibes and market suggest thats where he'll end up.

If, like me, you think Fact To File will beat GW in the Grade 1 over 2m5f then what does Willie do with GW? I appreciate GW is a Grade 1 winner over 3m but I think it's fair to question that form. Both the 2nd and 3rd that day are seemingly NHC bound now and being well backed for the race. If you are Willie or Patrick you know you have their number so I think defeat at the DRF might make the NHC tempting as they would almost certainly have the BANC favourite in FTF, with some decent peripheral chances as well.

CPS don't care where their horses go over jumps so Willie will be allowed to send GW wherever he wants. You don't have to look further back than last year to find a G1 winner over 3m who lost at the DRF over 2m5f that ended up not just in the NHC, but won the NHC (Gaillard Du Mesnil).

The calibre of horse that competes in the NHC is on the up and trainers like Willie and Gordon have realised that a solid amateur over a slightly shorter distance off levels vs inferior rivals gives horse on the cusp of being grade 1 level a great chance to bag a cheltenham winner. I think thats the sort of horse that GW will end up being.

The case has lots of moving parts and plenty of ifs. I'll know my fate at the DRF because if GW wins or runs really well then the bet is basically rendered dead, however, if FTF beats him and the NHC gets floated as an option, 20's goes into a short single figures within minutes and he'd be the the sort of horse that could go off 2/1 or even shorter. Most firms go 10's and 12's and he's 4's NRMB, so 20/1 is a risk I am happy taking, for all I appreciate the BANC is more likely.

[Exar Essay]

I had similar thoughts charlie But I did a related bet to minimise my stakes on him. I really think the only way he ends up in the NHC is if FTF wins the Flogas. So I've done the related double at 72.5/1.

[charlie]

I had similar thoughts charlie But I did a related bet to minimise my stakes on him. I really think the only way he ends up in the NHC is if FTF wins the Flogas. So I've done the related double at 72.5/1.

The greedy angle, I love it