2024 Novice Chasers

[Istabraq]

Mister Policeman top price 12/1 now…

[ComplyOrDie]

An absolutely meaningless piece of information, but I like sharing things like this (I realise this has no bearing on the actual likely result of the race).

When winning the Arkle Willie Mullins has followed it up the following season with winning it again.

More over, back to back Arkles for trainers has actually been quite common since Martin Pipe done it in 1997 (Or Royal) & 1998 (Champleve). He also went on to achieve the same feat in 2004 (Well Chief) and then 2005 (Contraband). Alan King then followed that up winning it twice in a row in 2006 (Voy Por Ustedes) and 2007 (My Way De Solzen), Nicky Henderson 2012 (Sprinter Sacre) and 2013 (Simonsig) the next to do it, before Willie achieved this twice, firstly in 2015 (Un De Sceaux) and 2016 (Douvan) and then 2018 (Footpad) and 2019 (Duc Des Genivres).

All in all we might as well cash out Marine Nationale bets and every other non Willie Mullins bet on the race

[nortonscoin200]

Surprised Giovinco isn’t quoted by anyone for the NHC - surely must be a possibility that’s where he ends up.

[ComplyOrDie]

Surprised Giovinco isn’t quoted by anyone for the NHC - surely must be a possibility that’s where he ends up.

Has Lucinda run many in the NHC?

From recent season it seems to be the BANC or the Ultima for her best staying chaser. I couldn't have the NHC on my mind for him right now, despite the 3m seasonal debut entry.

[Odin]

Constitution hill didn't run anywhere near his best in that race

The rest of sharjahs form showed he has regressed

His hurdles rating dropped from 162 to 152, culminating in losing to fils doudaries

A horse who mister policeman beat very easily on his uk debut (a horse that could very well run in the turners if he gets beat by facile in the irish arkle.)

He's very likely the highest rating hurdler going chasing, id be extremely surprised if hes still the highest rated come march given the age and relative trajectories of the horses

He's won 2 Micky mouse races beating mars harper and captain conby

20/1 is 20/1 i suppose, would never put anyone off a small bet on an outsider

But personally I think there should be another 0 on the end

Are you absolutely 100% convinced that Sharjah wasn't run for a handicap mark in the County last year? I know it's not Willie's MO so it's less likely than if Elliott had done it, but Arctic Fire won off top weight the year he won it after a layoff (admittedly he went straight to County), but with a year off and some decent prize money in small fields knowing that State Man and Honeysuckle were both better than him, it's not a ridiculous theory in hindsight.

I don't have an explanation for his Punchestown run (one race too many/too soon is obvious but not guaranteed and doesn't fit with him running through the summer really) and don't think the horses he's beaten in his novice chases are any great shakes with Captain Conby clearly running for a mark, but was really impressed with Sharjah's jumping so I'm happy to believe he could run to approx 160 with a reinvigorated engine, which puts him there or thereabouts based on previous winning RPRs and I'm surprised you're as bullish as you are that he isn't good enough

[Lobos]

Has Lucinda run many in the NHC?

From recent season it seems to be the BANC or the Ultima for her best staying chaser. I couldn't have the NHC on my mind for him right now, despite the 3m seasonal debut entry.

Can't think of any.

[Magpie]

There does not seem a lot of love for Sharjah, with some saying regressive. I think that still has to be proved, not saying that’s not correct. But I thought jumping was really good, and in a possible flaky Turners I think 20s is perfectly fair.

[Lobos]

There does not seem a lot of love for Sharjah, with some saying regressive. I think that still has to be proved, not saying that’s not correct. But I thought jumping was really good, and in a possible flaky Turners I think 20s is perfectly fair.

Not sure we can say he's regressed as chasing is new to him this season but I think it's the age thing and the fact he's run a few times already when Willie's other potential Graded Novice Chasers are still tucked up at home. His summer horses rarely turn out to be Spring Festival top notchers.

[darlojim]

Not sure we can say he's regressed as chasing is new to him this season but I think it's the age thing and the fact he's run a few times already when Willie's other potential Graded Novice Chasers are still tucked up at home. His summer horses rarely turn out to be Spring Festival top notchers.

Think the runs can be ignored with him though due to his preference for nicer ground, hes a crazy price imo

[FinalFurlong91]

Chianti classico just went on my maybe pile for the NHC

Will be up to 140 you'd imagine now and just looks like a potential big improver over fences

Kim Bailey may even try to plot him towards the ultima

The yard was under a cloud last season but hes had 3 winners and 2 seconds from 9 runners the last 2 weeks

[ComplyOrDie]

Kim Bailey may even try to plot him towards the ultima

I very much see him as a handicap option for the yard.

Either the Plate or the Ultima is where I have just put him on my long list. I think Kim would love him to go for the Ultima again, having gone real close with Happygolucky three seasons back.

[Native River]

Chianti classico just went on my maybe pile for the NHC

Will be up to 140 you'd imagine now and just looks like a potential big improver over fences

Kim Bailey may even try to plot him towards the ultima

The yard was under a cloud last season but hes had 3 winners and 2 seconds from 9 runners the last 2 weeks

Exactly the same as my thoughts. Can't believe it's October and I watched him leaping over them fences going ohh I'd love an ultima price

[The Fellow]

20/1 any race with Hills

[Joleg]

20/1 any race with Hills

14's now !!!!

[SeanRock]

Yeah I’d echo the Chianti Classico for the Ultima shouts, that was my initial thoughts after todays race.

Quite like the look of Collector Item tomorrow, 2m 3f might be on the short side for him but a good gallop & the testing ground might see him well regardless. I always tend to keep a close eye on a Flemensfirth that has had a fairly promising yet quiet hurdle campaign.