2023 Novice Chasers

[Lobos]

Mahler Mission likely to go straight to NHC.

[opatcho]

It's happening Opatcho, it's happening......

He will absolutely be smashed up if he wins well.

Long time coming, Christmas Eve on Thursday, following by Christmas day on 16 March. Sir Turners Gerhard!!!!!

[Nevertoolate]

I’d be of the opinion that sir g could be aimed at the brown advisory. Won the ballymore on tough ground last year so no reason why he couldn’t step up this year.

stable already has dd and el fab for the arkle, appreciate it and jdb for the turners.

with nothing really standing out in the brown advisory I think there’s a great chance that’s where he will go. (hoping he doesn’t as I’m sweet on Gerri C).

[Lobos]

Not fussed where he turns up as long as he does !

[ComplyOrDie]

I'm sure something like this has probably been done before, but with the entries for Chemical Energy recently I thought I'd take a look at Gordons previous NH Chase runners and and mostly the preps they took prior to running in the race.

2011 - Chicago Grey 5/1f - 1st - Last run prior to winning the NH Chase was in December
2012 - Cottage Oak PU 66/1 - PU - Last run prior to being PU was in March
2013 - No Runner
2014 - No Runner
2015 - Cause Of Causes 8/1 - 1st - Last start over fence prior to winning the NH Chase was in November, but had a hurdle prep in January
2016 - Noble Endeavour 15/2 - F - Last run prior to falling in the NH Chase was in February
2017 - Tiger Roll 16/1 - 1st - Last run prior to winning the NH Chase was in October
2018 - Jury Duty 4/1f - UR - Last run prior to UR (when well beat) was in January / Mossback 6/1 - F - Last run prior to falling in the NH Chase was in February
2019 - Gun Digger 25/1 - F - Last run prior to falling in the NH Chase was in January
2020 - Ravenhill 12/1 - 1st - Last run prior to winning the NH Chase was in November
2021 - Galvin 7/2 - 1st - Last run prior to winning the NH Chase was in October / Escaria Ten 11/4f - 3rd - Last run prior to the NH Chase was in January
2022 - Run Wild Fred 15/8 - 2nd - Last run prior to the NH Chase was in December / Braeside 20/1 - PU - Last run prior to being PU in the NH Chase was in February

Not one of Gordons winners of the NH Chase ran in a chase after December (Cause Of Causes had a pipe opener over hurdles in January, but that was it), and the majority that did run after December then on to the NH Chase have a very poor record, it reads PU-F-UR-F-F-3-PU.

So off the back of this we'd not want to see a declaration for ANY of Gordons potential NH Chase horses after December, so therefore any declaration for Chemical Energy would be a negative and the fact Gerri Colombe has not qualified for the race yet means he'd have to defy the statistics in running after December and managing to win the NH Chase.

Quite frankly I don't see Gerri Colombe turning up in the NH Chase at all now.

Not that my motives have been questioned, but I've not done this as reassurance for me, as in the process it makes Frontal Assault a big negative should he run in the Thyestes tomorrow, he's been declared, and I can't cash my NH Chase bets out on him (which I would do), so it's basically a dead bet for me. Another, although I haven't backed, but would get rid of if I had would be Minella Crooner. Not only has he not qualified, he's also run in January, so he's very unlikely to pose any threat, IMO.

It's probably never been a doubt in many peoples heads that Chemical Energy was his NH Chase horse, Gordon said that himself, but the stats also back this up in relation to how he's campaigned his previous winners of the race as well, so I, probably like many, expect Chemical Energy to go very close in the race.

[Saxon Warrior]

ComplyOrDie

Good write up.

There's a big piece of research on this in the
Gordon Elliott Diary under NHC

He generally doesn't run his good horses in that race, from Christmas to Cheltenham.

[Lobos]

You can't forget him waving his 66/1 ticket about either !!

[ComplyOrDie]

Gaillard Du Mesnil back out on the exchanges for the BANC. Last matched at 18, obviously not for fortunes, but all the lay prices have been swallowed up.

He had small moves out with SkyBet/PP/Betfair yesterday for the race too, who are now top price of 6/1 for him.

In line with this James Du Berlais has been slowly coming back in for the BANC on the exchanges, think he was around 17 to back, now 12 only.

It could mean absolutely nothing, of course, but here I am putting it out there anyway

[Willdunn99]

Wonder what the odds would be for Willie to have the winner for all the novice chases would be ???

has anyone seen it priced up anywhere ?

[Winging The Last]

Gaillard Du Mesnil back out on the exchanges for the BANC. Last matched at 18, obviously not for fortunes, but all the lay prices have been swallowed up.

He had small moves out with SkyBet/PP/Betfair yesterday for the race too, who are now top price of 6/1 for him.

In line with this James Du Berlais has been slowly coming back in for the BANC on the exchanges, think he was around 17 to back, now 12 only.

It could mean absolutely nothing, of course, but here I am putting it out there anyway

Yeah I saw that yesterday and that PP had JDB out in the Turners.

It has to be down to Sir Gerhard and him most likely going to the Turners. What a line up Willie will have though currently:

Arkle - Dysart & El Fab (Also Saint Roi)
Turners - Appreciate It & Sir Gerhard
BANC - JDB
NHC - GDM (Maybe with Ramillies as well or he could be in the BANC)

Just the Turners alone he has two of the best novice chasers if not horses around atm

[FredFlintstone]

Wonder what the odds would be for Willie to have the winner for all the novice chases would be ???

has anyone seen it priced up anywhere ?

William Hill are 7/2 for WM to win both Arkle & Turners - They will price all novice chases if requested

[Quevega]

Gaillard Du Mesnil back out on the exchanges for the BANC. Last matched at 18, obviously not for fortunes, but all the lay prices have been swallowed up.

He had small moves out with SkyBet/PP/Betfair yesterday for the race too, who are now top price of 6/1 for him.

In line with this James Du Berlais has been slowly coming back in for the BANC on the exchanges, think he was around 17 to back, now 12 only.

It could mean absolutely nothing, of course, but here I am putting it out there anyway

Looks like the stable have told someone he's not running at Dublin.

[JackieMoon33]

Wonder what the odds would be for Willie to have the winner for all the novice chases would be ???

has anyone seen it priced up anywhere ?

What about all six novice races?

[charlie]

Gaillard Du Mesnil back out on the exchanges for the BANC. Last matched at 18, obviously not for fortunes, but all the lay prices have been swallowed up.

He had small moves out with SkyBet/PP/Betfair yesterday for the race too, who are now top price of 6/1 for him.

In line with this James Du Berlais has been slowly coming back in for the BANC on the exchanges, think he was around 17 to back, now 12 only.

It could mean absolutely nothing, of course, but here I am putting it out there anyway

Exchange usually gets these things right doesn't it.

It's funny how these things change. 2 weeks ago I was certain Sir Gerhard was out for the season and AI would stay over 2 miles.

Fast forward a few weeks and Sir Gerhard runs tomorrow over fences and AI looks more likely to go Turners.

The case for JDB to the BANC suddenly becomes a very sellable one. I'm guessing the conversation between Mullins and Munir would go a bit like this:

"Yo, what up baldy. We don't see the need to clash JDB with Sir Gerhard and/or Appreciate It over 2m5f, both are probably better horses and JDB's best run for us was over 3m post Cheltenham. Forward going horses can win the BANC and as I've said 3,425 times, JDB has tons of stamina in the pedigree. I'm pulling out the favourite so you wont have to worry about him, and the race is wide open - I think The Real Thacker or is it Tacker or Whacker, is favourite. Don't know but we'll beat that British filth no drama mush"

I've embellished a bit

[FinalFurlong91]

I imagine it will depend on how JDB settles at the DRF

If he is as keen as he was on chase debut they'd be unlikely to go BANC

If he settles well then that keeps both options open