2023 Novice Chasers

[ComplyOrDie]

Exchange usually gets these things right doesn't it.

Yes, and no, in my experience. The whole Sir Gerhard/DD saga of last season still rings loudly in my head.

I, of course, felt it worthy enough to mention, but at the same time wouldn't be putting the house on any decisions being made as of yet.

Also, I love how you've had a conversation in your head, assuming the roles of both Willie and Simon Munir, but just a quick question, when did Willie become Sanka Coffie? "Yo, what up baldy"

[Topofthegame2021]

I’ve not been on here for a little while but have been periodically checking in and it’s great to see all the faces I used to see, still very active. FJ really is an amazing place and I still talk to lots of people I met on here via twitter, whatsapp etc.

I just wanted to come on and put my 50pence in about the Turners before Sir G comes out tomorrow. Here goes:

I really think Mighty Potter is a poor fav… well not poor but he’s there by default because there’s nothing else obviously running. He’s not the most talented animal in that list by some margin.

We are likely to see two of Mullins’ turn up based on the depth of novice chasers he has. Currently I see that being either Appreciate it & James Du Berlais OR Appreciate it & Sir Gerhard.

Now, I would personally have Appreciate it as the least talented from this crop as his form is questionable, his age & his starts over fences this season. I would say come the day, either Sir Gerhard or James Du Berlais will be fav, with Mighty Potter a similar price to what he is now.

now, Mighty Potter. He jumped like a pig the first day at Down Royal, lots slated him and some bookies pushed him out in price after only scraping home against Mars Harper. The next day, he wins a grade 1 beating Gaillard Du Mesnil. He’s a boat and needs 3miles6, (his grade one form is poor too beating a horse who was still a maiden), with Banbridge back in third who didn’t stay in the ground. That to me doesn’t deserve an RPR164.

Lots of question marks for me. The value lies in the Mullins pair as they are far superior to MP.

[charlie]

Yes, and no, in my experience. The whole Sir Gerhard/DD saga of last season still rings loudly in my head.

I, of course, felt it worthy enough to mention, but at the same time wouldn't be putting the house on any decisions being made as of yet.

Also, I love how you've had a conversation in your head, assuming the roles of both Willie and Simon Munir, but just a quick question, when did Willie become Sanka Coffie? "Yo, what up baldy"

That last sentence

[FinalFurlong91]

I see pride, I see power

I see a bad ass horse, who ain't getting beaten by nobody

This is clearly how Willie gets his owners to listen to him

[Rooster Booster]

I need the help of others that are seeing what I am not. There are many on here that believe very strongly that SirGerhard is an exceptionally good horse. I see a mid 150s horse, whose claims to fame are beating TSL (rip) and Kilcruit.

I can understand why at the time we assumed he was an exceptional horse,because, on the surface back to back festival wins looks impressive but we now have the benefit of hindsight. I have taken a good look at the fields of each of his grade 1 victories and I think they were all very weak fields for the grade, with very little going on to achieve anything of note. I realise the who has he beat stuff isn’t everything...unfortunately he’s done nothing since either.

Many obviously see something that I don’t and rather than settle with my own opinion I’d like to be convinced by folks that I am wrong because as it stands I am in danger of leaving him alone completely.

[charlie]

I need the help of others that are seeing what I am not. There are many on here that believe very strongly that SirGerhard is an exceptionally good horse. I see a mid 150s horse, whose claims to fame are beating TSL (rip) and Kilcruit.

I can understand why at the time we assumed he was an exceptional horse,because, on the surface back to back festival wins looks impressive but we now have the benefit of hindsight. I have taken a good look at the fields of each of his grade 1 victories and I think they were all very weak fields for the grade, with very little going on to achieve anything of note. I realise the who has he beat stuff isn’t everything...unfortunately he’s done nothing since either.

Many obviously see something that I don’t and rather than settle with my own opinion I’d like to be convinced by folks that I am wrong because as it stands I am in danger of leaving him alone completely.

I don't think anyone has called him exceptional have they? There certainly cant have been many and I live on this thread!!

He definitely has ability, you cant go 2/2 at Cheltenham without it and he could prove to be exceptional in time, but thats not what he is now.

I've never been convinced he's a natural jumper and I don't like (as weird as this sounds) horses who win at Cheltenham then flop after.

Jury is out. Cant decide if its good for me if he's awesome or shit. Whatever pushes JDB into the BANC

[Rooster Booster]

I don't think anyone has called him exceptional have they? There certainly cant have been many and I live on this thread!!

He definitely has ability, you cant go 2/2 at Cheltenham without it and he could prove to be exceptional in time, but thats not what he is now.

I've never been convinced he's a natural jumper and I don't like (as weird as this sounds) horses who win at Cheltenham then flop after.

Jury is out. Cant decide if its good for me if he's awesome or shit. Whatever pushes JDB into the BANC

Just a few comments I can remember just off the top of my head....he has been referred to as ‘the king’ , as a ‘top top horse’ and ‘far superior to MIghty Potter..my interpretation was that these comments equate to exceptional, so yes I am guilty of using my own interpretation.

It can be argued whether a 155 horse is a top top horse or far superior to Mighty Potter or indeed a king, maybe he is all of these things, I was just hoping somebody would give a compelling case for why, particularly as I haven’t seen that many counter positions....

So I guess, as it stands I’ve assumed I’m in the minority when I say I don’t really get it, and I’ve learnt over time that when people smarter than you are telling you either overtly or subtly that you’ve got it wrong, you are wise to listen.

[Stormez]

Just a few comments I can remember just off the top of my head....he has been referred to as ‘the king’ , as a ‘top top horse’ and ‘far superior to MIghty Potter..my interpretation was that these comments equate to exceptional, so yes I am guilty of using my own interpretation.

It can be argued whether a 155 horse is a top top horse or far superior to Mighty Potter or indeed a king, maybe he is all of these things, I was just hoping somebody would give a compelling case for why, particularly as I haven’t seen that many counter positions....

So I guess, as it stands I’ve assumed I’m in the minority when I say I don’t really get it, and I’ve learnt over time that when people smarter than you are telling you either overtly or subtly that you’ve got it wrong, you are wise to listen.

Can’t be a ‘top top horse’ in my book until you’ve done it in open company. Until then you’re just a ‘top top novice’.

[DenmanSacre]

I need the help of others that are seeing what I am not. There are many on here that believe very strongly that SirGerhard is an exceptionally good horse. I see a mid 150s horse, whose claims to fame are beating TSL (rip) and Kilcruit.

I can understand why at the time we assumed he was an exceptional horse,because, on the surface back to back festival wins looks impressive but we now have the benefit of hindsight. I have taken a good look at the fields of each of his grade 1 victories and I think they were all very weak fields for the grade, with very little going on to achieve anything of note. I realise the who has he beat stuff isn’t everything...unfortunately he’s done nothing since either.

Many obviously see something that I don’t and rather than settle with my own opinion I’d like to be convinced by folks that I am wrong because as it stands I am in danger of leaving him alone completely.

He would get battered by Appreciate It and James Du Berlais if they met IMO and I wouldn't expect him to beat DD or EF either over 2m.

[Lobos]

Sir G.....

Asked why he had decided to send Sir Gerhard over fences so late in the season, Mullins replied: "We can always go back over hurdles if things don't go well but we just said we'd take our chance and see how he gets on over fences. He's schooled well and I've been happy with his jumping."

It was reported earlier in the season Sir Gerhard might not even make Cheltenham but Mullins has been delighted with the eight-year-old over the last few weeks. He said: "He's made really good progress, which is great to see, and he's ready to start back. Everything has gone well for him over the last little while and hopefully everything will go well for him in the race too."

[Quevega]

I need the help of others that are seeing what I am not. There are many on here that believe very strongly that SirGerhard is an exceptionally good horse. I see a mid 150s horse, whose claims to fame are beating TSL (rip) and Kilcruit.

I can understand why at the time we assumed he was an exceptional horse,because, on the surface back to back festival wins looks impressive but we now have the benefit of hindsight. I have taken a good look at the fields of each of his grade 1 victories and I think they were all very weak fields for the grade, with very little going on to achieve anything of note. I realise the who has he beat stuff isn’t everything...unfortunately he’s done nothing since either.

Many obviously see something that I don’t and rather than settle with my own opinion I’d like to be convinced by folks that I am wrong because as it stands I am in danger of leaving him alone completely.

I actually nearly posted something similar last night and went back on his form myself, and it definitely lacks substance/depth and the pass he's been given for punchestown performances seems generous.

It's almost vice versa with regards Mighty Potter who I personally think has got decent excuses for his defeats.
Although I agree his current price is potentially false much like Jonbon's, as we don't know for sure the level or identity of their opponents as yet.

I wonder if Gordon will duck Dublin with Potter myself to keep the dream alive. Let Willie's sort themselves out.

I'd give Sir G a bit more credit and put him nearer 160 to be fair and I also think his most likely destination is the arkle. The only way I see him going turners is if his Irish arkle horse's finish in a heap, and/or he looks light in the turners after the longer race in Dublin (for example if Potter does run and beats them)

[Lobos]

Think you guys are probably right in that Sir G hasn't really set the world slight with the RPR's and OR's and has also thrown the odd bad one in mainly at the tail end of the season and specifically Punchestown. That said, he's won at the Festival in consecutive years and is certainly a punters favourite. That's what makes him so popular and sexy. Rest assured, if he wins tomorrow as he should then the bookies won't take any chances and they'll immediately make him fav for The Turner's as they'll be scared to death of being hit again for a third time. Looking at the betting, they've cut him already so they are getting ready.

[nortonscoin200]

I watched Sir G in the pre-parade ring last March and he is one hell of a big strong boy - looked an absolute monster compared to his rivals - and I remember thinking that physically he has the potential to be a better chaser than hurdler.

[PresentingPercy]

Are there any Ch Bumper winners who have gone on to win at the festival the following 2 years? None in the last 20 years from what I can see. Envoi Allen came close..

[Brooksie]

It's great to see the Mullins pair propping up Mighty Potters price. Hoping SG wins well and they push Mighty Potter out a bit off the back of it.