this week's entries

[Exar Essay]

Didn't PN say he could be a NHC type or was that another one of his ?

He did, on Sky Sports Racing if it recall. But it did seem a secondary thought. Only said it in one interview too. All others have been talking of 3m chasing.

[Lobos]

He did, on Sky Sports Racing if it recall. But it did seem a secondary thought. Only said it in one interview too. All others have been talking of 3m chasing.

Thanks. It's just the stat that Opatcho came up with that got me thinking.

[Exar Essay]

Ohhhhh I prefer my BANC fancies to have started over 2 and a half, not 3

Had a little look into this. I went back 20 years and have found no winners who started out over 3m or further! There's definitely something in it.

Edit: Other than last years winner, doh!

[Benjy23]

Did they all win over shorter? Last year could keep a trend going yet

[opatcho]

Ohhhhh I prefer my BANC fancies to have started over 2 and a half, not 3

Stats and trends are there to be broken, but in the main... its worth noting and using them as a starting point.

Just to explain my comment and the logic behind it

I try and look for a quick 3 miler for the BANC – so ideally I want to see them run over middle trip when they start chasing, which in theory should make them more sharper, keener and also keep their mileage down before the big one in March.

Ideally they tackle 3 miles for the first time at the BANC, or have shown speed in their limited attempts over 3 miles - I.e. The Real Whacker in the small field over 3 miles when he won earlier in the season but displayed some pace up the hill, or Topofthegame when running over a tight 3 miler - I.e. Kauto Star at Kempton

What I do really want to see for the BANC is a horse that is throw straight into 3 miles in their first season over fences and remain over 3 miles all the way up to the BANC. I just think they become too slow and also it’s a harder season, so can take the edge and speed off them

Just to put some meat on the bones

2023

- The Real Whacker, started over 3 but went back down to 2m4f and won

- Gerri, 2m4f winner first time over fences. BANC was first run over 3 miles

- Bronn was trying 3 miles for 1st time in the BANC



2022

- L’Homme Presse, first time over 3 miles was in the BANC

- Ahoy SenorUR in his first run over middle distance. Ran over 3 miles a few times before BANC



2021

- Monkfish, ran twice over middle distance and once over 3 miles before winning BANC

- Fiddlerontherood, 4 middle distance before running over 3 miles at Warwick before 2nd in BANC



2020

- Champ, ran over 2m6f first time out, revert back to middle trip before winning BANC

- Indo, middle distance and then one 3 miler before BANC

- Allaho, BANC was first time over 3 mile fences



2019

- Topofthegame, middle distance before Kauto Star, only ran over over 3 before BANC

- Santini, ran over 3 miles chasing before BANC

- Delta Work, ran twice over middle trip, then 3 miler before BANC


2018 - I was going to stop but then may be called out, Presenting Percy bucks this, but he was a weird type. He did run into 2nd place over middle trip before winning the Banc. Before that, he was heavily campaiged over 3. Monalee, middle trip again and then Al Boum who fell in the Banc ran 3 races over middle distance before running over 3 miles first time in BANC


So yeah, I look for a novice chaser that’s running over middle distance, and running well over that trip, over an out and out 3 miler that runs most or all of his runs over this distance before the BANC

This means, I will likely demote Stay Away Fay in my shortlist given he ran majority of his novice hurdles over 3 miles and will be entered straight into a 3 miler as a novice chaser

I’m starting to like Hermes Allen more for the BANC. I’ve taken on some of the good points raised, especially by Spectre’s about his size last season, so that will be something I will watch out for when he comes back. But I can see Hermes being Paul’s Kauto Star horse this season, and for me that one of the type I like to get on-side for the BANC.

Will continue to look out for that GB horse, running middle distance but targeting the BANC - that’s the type of horse I like to side with :-)

[Benjy23]

I get the logic and appreciate the work but I'm not sure just running over shorter is enough is it? Needs to be some sort of measure for how they perform over shorter for it to truly be a logical test and trend imo.

Which is where first run should become less relevant and something like the Real Whacker would meet the useful trend.

Not sure if others would drop out without looking...

I also agree with the thinking and look for same at first. A bit like I prefer my Ballymore horses to start over 2 miles. And I know that stat isn't even as strong

[Nwfb89]

Brighterdaysahead entered in thurles on Thursday in a 2m mares maiden hurdle.

[opatcho]

I get the logic and appreciate the work but I'm not sure just running over shorter is enough is it? Needs to be some sort of measure for how they perform over shorter for it to truly be a logical test and trend imo.

Which is where first run should become less relevant and something like the Real Whacker would meet the useful trend.

ohh yeah, definitely, throw in how well they jump and their RPR’s - I’m sure Saxon threading on RPR’s works well for this race too. Throw these three things together and for me, it has helped narrow the field

[Fouroverthrutwo]

Interesting new juvenile recruit for Gigginstown / Elliot tomorrow at Cork in the 1.25 - Kaleosun.

[Benjy23]

Icare D'aubrelle back today in the bumper at Cork. Looks like he's a huge drifter today and been off for over a year and a half, so can't be expecting too much. Went into my tracker back then after his bumper debut though and I'm sure a few others noticed him as well. So nice to see him back and hope he goes well for them.

[Atlantic Viking]

Indeevar Bleu has an entry at Market Rasen on Sat.

[Exar Essay]

Some interesting entries for Limerick this Sunday: https://status.hri-ras.ie/entries/Mi...20231017123002

Mares Novice Hurdle: Brighterdaysahead
2m Maiden Hurdle: King of Kingsfield, An Tobar, Walk Away Harry
2m3f Beginners Chase: Qulixiois, Cool survivor, Affordale Fury

[FredFlintstone]

Some interesting entries for Limerick this Sunday: https://status.hri-ras.ie/entries/Mi...20231017123002

Mares Novice Hurdle: Brighterdaysahead
2m Maiden Hurdle: King of Kingsfield, An Tobar, Walk Away Harry
2m3f Beginners Chase: Qulixiois, Cool survivor, Affordale Fury

Tiger Bay Queen also in the mares maiden on Sunday

Plenty of rain around this week so hopefully a few interesting ones get declared

[Nwfb89]

Just looking at the Maiden Hurdle entries for Sunday in Limerick that Exar Essay mentioned, certainly some interesting horses in there , one of which "brave adam" a full brother to bravemansgame.

[OverTheLast]

Would Thursday 19th then 3rd November be too close a turnaround for Gordon Elliott to run Brighterdaysahead at Down Royal in the Grade 3 Mares Race?