Supreme Novices Hurdle 2021

[ComplyOrDie]

I know there's been a fair bit said about Ballyadam possibly getting closer to Appreciate It if the ground is better, but does anyone think Blue Lord could get closer to the pair of them also on this basis?

He's run admirably, for a horse I put aside as no chance initially, but his French flat form on soft he was beaten out of sight, then he won (his only win in France) on Good ground.

[ToniC]

Those looking to cover metier (I’ll probably do the same myself, between the sky & will hills offer if it is on) do you expect him to drift or are you going in now? I’m fairly convinced he’ll drift and going to hang fire for the moment

[Captain Chris]

Would you use it on Bob Olinger for now at 12s. If he's a non runner, then you get to go in again (point 3 in the Ts and Cs)?

[Muswell]

Yeah I had an early bet last year on a NR and got to go in again when it wasn’t declared

[dannycraigpirates]

for me 20 quid aint going to add much having bets on the fav unless youve got a fair few accounts to throw 10s at.

I may try and wait to see confirmed runners and then play some higher priced horses i havent covered e.g. thedevilscoachman, gowel road, ganapathi/galopin

Shame theyve reduced it from 20 and now only do this offer on day 1. Was a great offer 2 years ago

When I was a priority customer with them years ago, they used to allow me 250 money back as cash first race every day. I soon had those sort of privileges withdrawn after a couple of good festivals back to back put in a decent profit ! I remember that year I was invited into their box (not overlooking the track so not that great!) they let me have another 250 on in the box on the same deal (so ended up with 500 on yorkhill to win the ballymore completely risk free)

needless to say that account no longer is open. From priority customer to no customer is under 4 years

[dannycraigpirates]

With ?10/?20 bets however, I’d be looking at a cover instead of a big lump on something I liked. No point topping up appreciate it @ 7/4 when I might as well add blue Lord @ 16s and recover some liabilities if that wins

[Spectre]

Spectre, may I throw a speculative name out there. Now, don’t all laugh but, Gowel Road.

Hear me out. He just beat Good Ball by almost 6 lengths carrying 9lbs more. He did so even though running incredibly green with some suspect jumping. He can surely improve from that run. More interestingly, Good Ball has decent form. Note he finished 2nd to Teahupoo in France by under 2 lengths off level weights. Teahupoo has since gone to Ireland, with reasonable fanfare, and battered Druid’s Altar by 15 lengths.

Based on the latter’s OR you can make a case that Teahupoo is an 140+ hurdler. Good Ball still has an OR in the UK of 131, but the French form with Teahupoo makes me question whether he’s more of a mid 130s horse at the bare minimum. On that basis, Gowel Road could, I emphasise “could”, be a be a late 140s horse already with obvious potential to improve.

That suddenly puts him in with a genuine shout here.

I know that’s a lot of conjecture, but in answer to your question, I’d thought I’d throw it out there. Someone may tell me he won’t run now...but he’s also with Twister who doesn’t have that many darts this year...and his horses usually like Cheltenham. 25s NRNB seem very fair.

I quite like him TCH, but had wondered whether NTD was heading for the County with him when I saw the entries. I've watched his races back now and it looks to me as though he's had some tack added to stop him hanging/lugging right between his second and third runs, and he's improved for it. Given I liked his run behind Bear Ghylls the improvement makes him pretty smart.

I'm a bit torn with which race he might be best sent to though. I think they'd probably prefer a smaller field for his jumping, but a big field for the strong hold he takes.

He may be one I add with extra places on the day. I can't imagine him going off much shorter that 16/1-20/1 so I'm happy to wait for the concessions if he turns up here.

[opatcho]

Those looking to cover metier (I’ll probably do the same myself, between the sky & will hills offer if it is on) do you expect him to drift or are you going in now? I’m fairly convinced he’ll drift and going to hang fire for the moment

I expect Metier to drift, despite the field being a pile of shite outside the fav and Bally
Ground looks like its going to go against him
Trainer isnt one I'd be relying on
More multiples will be placed on the Irish pair head into and on the day of the fez

[Madmoose]

This Atoll Street looks a no brainer nrnb bet at 33/1 ladbrokes for the supreme, dovecote fav tomoz and wont run being a nicholls horse if bombs out. It looks to prefer better ground so if wins this it would be 14/1 post race?

[Cashew King]

This Atoll Street looks a no brainer nrnb bet at 33/1 ladbrokes for the supreme, dovecote fav tomoz and wont run being a nicholls horse if bombs out. It looks to prefer better ground so if wins this it would be 14/1 post race?

Think the plan is Aintree rather than Cheltenham - “While he still holds an entry in the Supreme Hurdle at Cheltenham a good run at Kempton is more likely to book his ticket for Aintree.”

[Madmoose]

Think the plan is Aintree rather than Cheltenham - “While he still holds an entry in the Supreme Hurdle at Cheltenham a good run at Kempton is more likely to book his ticket for Aintree.”

Cheers I didn’t realise, backed nrnb thankfully

[Quevega]

Cape Gentleman winning that race has - in a small way, shown the bridge that exists between the UK & Irish novices IMO.

[Outlaw]

Cape Gentleman winning that race has - in a small way, shown the bridge that exists between the UK & Irish novices IMO.

Especially with him not even having an entry in the Supreme. I reckon they could send over a Shetland Pony and pick up prize money over here at present.

[Quevega]

Especially with him not even having an entry in the Supreme. I reckon they could send over a Shetland Pony and pick up prize money over here at present.

Probably not the strongest of races to be fair.
But still.

[Kevloaf]

Cape Gentleman winning that race has - in a small way, shown the bridge that exists between the UK & Irish novices IMO.

Yeah I agree with that.... it's obviously not conclusive, but the Irish 'raids' this year are pretty noteable, handicaps, graded novice races.... they just seem to have loads more depth and be better at the top end.


I doubt anyone is surprised, and Metier/Soearing Glory backers won't be taking it as a "negative" as such, but it's hard to be excited about a British horse..... although the Triumph thread probably disagrees right now.