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I think Gallopin Des Champs is smart and we haven’t seen his best yet. Disappointing he was pulled up at Limerick but ran well lto where likely he wasn’t fully tuned. Not sure what the plan is with him, but definitely one I want to keep on side.
I think we all pretty much think Appreciate It is the most likely winner, but I can't shake the feeling there's going to be a boilover in the race.
If that happened what wins?
So my question is, remove Appreciate It, Metier, and Ballyadam from the field. What horse would you back and why?
Spectre, may I throw a speculative name out there. Now, don’t all laugh but, Gowel Road.
Hear me out. He just beat Good Ball by almost 6 lengths carrying 9lbs more. He did so even though running incredibly green with some suspect jumping. He can surely improve from that run. More interestingly, Good Ball has decent form. Note he finished 2nd to Teahupoo in France by under 2 lengths off level weights. Teahupoo has since gone to Ireland, with reasonable fanfare, and battered Druid’s Altar by 15 lengths.
Based on the latter’s OR you can make a case that Teahupoo is an 140+ hurdler. Good Ball still has an OR in the UK of 131, but the French form with Teahupoo makes me question whether he’s more of a mid 130s horse at the bare minimum. On that basis, Gowel Road could, I emphasise “could”, be a be a late 140s horse already with obvious potential to improve.
That suddenly puts him in with a genuine shout here.
I know that’s a lot of conjecture, but in answer to your question, I’d thought I’d throw it out there. Someone may tell me he won’t run now...but he’s also with Twister who doesn’t have that many darts this year...and his horses usually like Cheltenham. 25s NRNB seem very fair.
I think we all pretty much think Appreciate It is the most likely winner, but I can't shake the feeling there's going to be a boilover in the race.
If that happened what wins?
So my question is, remove Appreciate It, Metier, and Ballyadam from the field. What horse would you back and why?
Its so hard to even think of one ! Outside of those 3 we are left with next year's handicappers at best. It really is a poor race. I'm not even going to try and get AI or Ballyadam beat. The winner will come from those 2 imo. Just top up on them if you need to imo.
Spectre, may I throw a speculative name out there. Now, don’t all laugh but, Gowel Road.
Hear me out. He just beat Good Ball by almost 6 lengths carrying 9lbs more. He did so even though running incredibly green with some suspect jumping. He can surely improve from that run. More interestingly, Good Ball has decent form. Note he finished 2nd to Teahupoo in France by under 2 lengths off level weights. Teahupoo has since gone to Ireland, with reasonable fanfare, and battered Druid’s Altar by 15 lengths.
Based on the latter’s OR you can make a case that Teahupoo is an 140+ hurdler. Good Ball still has an OR in the UK of 131, but the French form with Teahupoo makes me question whether he’s more of a mid 130s horse at the bare minimum. On that basis, Gowel Road could, I emphasise “could”, be a be a late 140s horse already with obvious potential to improve.
That suddenly puts him in with a genuine shout here.
I know that’s a lot of conjecture, but in answer to your question, I’d thought I’d throw it out there. Someone may tell me he won’t run now...but he’s also with Twister who doesn’t have that many darts this year...and his horses usually like Cheltenham. 25s NRNB seem very fair.
Hi TCH29
nice write up on Gowel Road. I missed the race Saturday but liked his previous race where he hit the line hard pulling away from Gunsight Ridge.
just gone back and watched Saturdays race and you are right about his greenness. He’s literally pulled and looked around the whole race. To do that it shows the ability he has and to still finish strong again like that suggests he will be wanting a lot further in time.
negatives for me is that his inexperience will let him down in a Supreme. It’s ok pulling your head off in a weak race but you won’t get away with it in a grade 1 at Cheltenham. They could try some headgear to help him concentrate a bit better but horses who have are 0/37 since 1992.
I’m no time expert but comparing his time to the Betfair Hurdle and Bumper, even allowing for weight differences and no flights his time wasn’t great.
I would say there is plenty more to come from Gowel Road especially when stepped up in trip but at this stage the Supreme will come to quick.
He will get his new mark Tuesday (must be close to 140) and if he’s a big enough on the day with extra places I wouldn’t put you off an e/w play.
Spectre, may I throw a speculative name out there. Now, don’t all laugh but, Gowel Road.
I agree. He looks an excellent shot at a longer price. I was taken with him when he was a good second to Bear Ghylls at the back end of last year. Only a length or so down. He's done it in all conditions, but his win on the weekend made me think he will thrive in quicker conditions ... of which there appears to be a good chance of at Chlets.
Do we have any trainer quotes about the race? My only concern is that he ends up in the County off a very competitive weight.
I agree. He looks an excellent shot at a longer price. I was taken with him when he was a good second to Bear Ghylls at the back end of last year. Only a length or so down. He's done it in all conditions, but his win on the weekend made me think he will thrive in quicker conditions ... of which there appears to be a good chance of at Chlets.
Do we have any trainer quotes about the race? My only concern is that he ends up in the County off a very competitive weight.
Twister don’t shirk opportunities, he reminds me a bit of Ballyandy for the yard, I reckon he will end up here and said after the race Sat I bet he wish he had him entered up in the Betfair in hindsight.
I do like these offers, I won't blow my load too early (can probably only get 20 quid on to be fair)
Always interesting to see how people approach these kind of bets...
Top up on the fav?
Cover a horse you're scared of?
Go for a hail mary shout win only?
Something else?
Cover a horse. I see it as free protection in the market. I rarely want the horse I select in these to actually win, as have bigger winners elsewhere, but gives piece of mind, especially in the Supreme which I always way over-bet with too many mults linking to it.
I do like these offers, I won't blow my load too early (can probably only get 20 quid on to be fair)
Always interesting to see how people approach these kind of bets...
Top up on the fav?
Cover a horse you're scared of?
Go for a hail mary shout win only?
Something else?
for me 20 quid aint going to add much having bets on the fav unless youve got a fair few accounts to throw 10s at.
I may try and wait to see confirmed runners and then play some higher priced horses i havent covered e.g. thedevilscoachman, gowel road, ganapathi/galopin
Shame theyve reduced it from 20 and now only do this offer on day 1. Was a great offer 2 years ago
I do like these offers, I won't blow my load too early (can probably only get 20 quid on to be fair)
Always interesting to see how people approach these kind of bets...
Top up on the fav?
Cover a horse you're scared of?
Go for a hail mary shout win only?
Something else?
I'll probably cover a couple of horses I haven't got onside yet or as much as I'd like to be on them, so one is likely to be Metier, which was actually always the plan anyway.
I definitely wouldn't top up on the favourite, that would be my last approach. A hail mary is an option but given the extra places likely to be on offer on the day I'd rather back these horses with cash E/W, as the prices will very likely still be decent. I have a couple in mind currently.
for me 20 quid aint going to add much having bets on the fav unless youve got a fair few accounts to throw 10s at.
I may try and wait to see confirmed runners and then play some higher priced horses i havent covered e.g. thedevilscoachman, gowel road, ganapathi/galopin
Shame theyve reduced it from 20 and now only do this offer on day 1. Was a great offer 2 years ago
Yeah I had 4 accounts back then when it was 20 so had 60 on Pentland Hills..... they were BOG then too..... absolutely ridiculous, wasn't even aware of the drift as I think it was Sir Erec/Pic D'Orhy's year and they were both absolutely my main darts
I'd love to get a lot on Metier in this market to be fair, hopefully some other bookies do similar so I can get a 'risk free' stake on the main danger/gap... as ComplyOrDie says above, that was my plan too with him...
That's how I'd like to play it, if I can't, I'd be more likely to wait for the day and back some wild ones
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