Supreme Novices Hurdle 2021

[Kevloaf]

Has anyone read or seen anything about no ordinary joes likely trip for this season? Ive seen a fair few on here backing him for the supreme based on him running over two miles tomorrow, but I thought hendo might be running him tomorrow instead of dusart because with the ground possibly being heavy maybe he feels that no ordinary joe might be better suited to a test of stamina? In which case maybe he's more a ballymore type.

ive seen nothing to support this, was just a thought that I had, an im interested to hear if anyone has heard anything regarding his likely best trip, I want to back him but dont know whether to go supreme or ballymore and I dont want to back him for both.

I've spoken to someone who spoke to the jockey and they're running him to see if he's good enough for that level (but no specific trip)

As with Angel's Breath and Shishkin, my assumption would be if they won over 2m, they'll stay at 2m until they show they need further. The trainer tends to go that way and I'd plump for Supreme... or check his Any Race price? He might end up in a handicap


FWIW, I've backed him for the Supreme only.

[riccirich]

I've spoken to someone who spoke to the jockey and they're running him to see if he's good enough for that level (but no specific trip)

As with Angel's Breath and Shishkin, my assumption would be if they won over 2m, they'll stay at 2m until they show they need further. The trainer tends to go that way and I'd plump for Supreme... or check his Any Race price? He might end up in a handicap


FWIW, I've backed him for the Supreme only.

Any race price is 20/1 which is a fair drop from 33's, especially for a horse im taking a chance on with no idea how good he is.

i'll take the supreme price and hope for the best

[Kevloaf]

Any race price is 20/1 which is a fair drop from 33's, especially for a horse im taking a chance on with no idea how good he is.

i'll take the supreme price and hope for the best

Back now.
Cashout tomorrow.
That's the way to play the Supreme haha

[Eggs]

Any race price is 20/1 which is a fair drop from 33's, especially for a horse im taking a chance on with no idea how good he is.

i'll take the supreme price and hope for the best

....No Ordinary Joe is 50-1 (Hills & Sky) to win tomorrow & Supreme (56-1 Hills boost).

[Overturn]

Ignore- fake Twitter account!

[Lbur4288]

Bet365 have suspended Ferny Hollow for the Supreme, not sure how significant that is right now but its not helping my antepost anxiety.

[FaugheenTheMachine]

The easiest way to clear up Ferny Hollow is someone on Racing TV to ask Willie (or whoever’s representing him on course) tomorrow; will they? Nope

[Native River]

I'm debating a speculative e/w bet on Llandinabo Lad for this at 40/1. I liked the way he finished off both his races so far and get the impression that a bit more of a testing track might suit him. If he runs well tomorrow with 5lb penalty on his back it might be showing signs of progressing nicely.

Obviously the draw back is thinking their must be some ammo to come out and announce themselves soon and their could be plenty better than him. Off the top of my head recently in the supreme there has been a few horses coming from the smaller stables running well and placing, Kalashnikov, Itchy Feet. Added to his bumper form (not the most reliable often) works out quite well with Third Time Lucki and Highway One O Two showing themselves as being quite able over hurdles, with the latters form doing well in handicaps early this season.

[jono]

13th October

Mullins - Ferny Hollow 10/1
Elliott - Ballyadam 16/1
Henderson - Flinteur Sacre 20/1

------------------------------------------------------------------

17th December Update

Though he did very well on debut, doubts surround Ferny Hollow.
Flinteur Sacre flopped at Newbury and looked anything but a Festival horse.
Ballyadam has enhanced his claims winning the Royal Bond, albeit not in the most convincing manner.

Shortest priced horse per trainer is now

Mullins - Ferny Hollow 8/1
Elliott - Ballyadam 8/1
Henderson - Dusart 14/1



Henderson

I imagine by the time Ascot and the Kempton Christmas meetings have taken place we will have seen all / if any of the Supreme runners for Henderson.
He won't have held back any horse by intention given his liking for the Newbury, Kempton and Ascot novice hurdle options.
The race may not throw up the Supreme winner/runner from history but very interesting how NOJ gets on tomorrow and hopefully Dusart over Christmas.

Dusart 14/1 - 1
Lecale's Article 20/1 - 1
No Ordinary Joe 33/1 - runs tomorrow
Flinteur Sacre 33/1 - 4


Elliott

Has in the last 7 years only once had more than 1 runner in the race, though that is likely to increase year on year as his operation just gets stronger and bigger.
He has a few entered up over Christmas both in the Future Champions Novice (Ballyadam, Call me Lyreen and Eskylane possible runners) and Maiden hurdles so it's probably too early to be thinking we've see all candidates as there is still time.

Ballyadam 8/1 Fav - 11
Call Me Lyreen 25/1 - 111
Magic Tricks 33/1 - 1
Eskylane 40/1 - 15
Indigo Breeze - 40/1 - 2


Mullins

Looks a much cloudier picture. Has had quite a few runners so far, with varying success. And you have to feel he has more to come out where races later in the season often being key trials for him. 7 possible runners in just the Future Novices.

Ferny Hollow 8/1 2nd Fav - 1
Appreciate It 16/1 - 1
Ganapathi 25/1 - 1
Shewearsitwell 25/1 - 111
N'golo - 25/1 - 1P113
Power of Pause 33/1 - 11
Galopin Des Champs 50/1 - 1
Capodanno 50/1 - 3


If I had to guess I think come 1st January all of Henderson and Elliott's possible Supreme runners will all have had at least 1 run over hurdles.

Mullins definitely more of a waiting game and you couldn't rule anything out. Melon had the one run at the very end of January though word about him was constant for much of Winter so he was fairly well known. It's worth noting though that even if we haven't seen the Mullins runner yet, they would generally of had the / some entries at least so it's rare to get a horse come out completely out the pack January onwards.

[nortonscoin200]

[QUOTE=jono;n262141]13th October

Mullins - Ferny Hollow 10/1
Elliott - Ballyadam 16/1
Henderson - Flinteur Sacre 20/1

------------------------------------------------------------------

17th December Update

Though he did very well on debut, doubts surround Ferny Hollow.
Flinteur Sacre flopped at Newbury and looked anything but a Festival horse.
Ballyadam has enhanced his claims winning the Royal Bond, albeit not in the most convincing manner.

Shortest priced horse per trainer is now

Mullins - Ferny Hollow 8/1
Elliott - Ballyadam 8/1
Henderson - Dusart 14/1



Henderson

I imagine by the time Ascot and the Kempton Christmas meetings have taken place we will have seen all / if any of the Supreme runners for Henderson.
He won't have held back any horse by intention given his liking for the Newbury, Kempton and Ascot novice hurdle options.
The race may not throw up the Supreme winner/runner from history but very interesting how NOJ gets on tomorrow and hopefully Dusart over Christmas.

Dusart 14/1 - 1
Lecale's Article 20/1 - 1
No Ordinary Joe 33/1 - runs tomorrow
Flinteur Sacre 33/1 - 4


Elliott

Has in the last 7 years only once had more than 1 runner in the race, though that is likely to increase year on year as his operation just gets stronger and bigger.
He has a few entered up over Christmas both in the Future Champions Novice (Ballyadam, Call me Lyreen and Eskylane possible runners) and Maiden hurdles so it's probably too early to be thinking we've see all candidates as there is still time.

Ballyadam 8/1 Fav - 11
Call Me Lyreen 25/1 - 111
Magic Tricks 33/1 - 1
Eskylane 40/1 - 15
Indigo Breeze - 40/1 - 2


Mullins

Looks a much cloudier picture. Has had quite a few runners so far, with varying success. And you have to feel he has more to come out where races later in the season often being key trials for him. 7 possible runners in just the Future Novices.

Ferny Hollow 8/1 2nd Fav - 1
Appreciate It 16/1 - 1
Ganapathi 25/1 - 1
Shewearsitwell 25/1 - 111
N'golo - 25/1 - 1P113
Power of Pause 33/1 - 11
Galopin Des Champs 50/1 - 1
Capodanno 50/1 - 3


If I had to guess I think come 1st January all of Henderson and Elliott's possible Supreme runners will all have had at least 1 run over hurdles.

Mullins definitely more of a waiting game and you couldn't rule anything out. Melon had the one run at the very end of January though word about him was constant for much of Winter so he was fairly well known. It's worth noting though that even if we haven't seen the Mullins runner yet, they would generally of had the / some entries at least so it's rare to get a horse come out completely out the pack January onwards.[/QUOT

Great stuff Jono - brilliant to have all this useful info on one post.

[taylorch1990]

With the Supreme looking more open than usual this year I had a look for something at a big price. The 3 that jumped out to me were Metier, Magic Tricks and For Pleasure. I eventually ruled out Metier as I think he might go Ballymore to avoid Boothill (who I like a lot and have backed already). Magic Tricks was really impressive on his hurdle debut against some well thought of rivals and I may add him at 33-1.

However if Shantou Express runs well in the trial tomorrow I think I'll add For Pleasure at 50-1. I had a look through his form and there's a bit of depth to it. In his earlier win at Stratford he beat Shantou Express and One True King by 5 and 25 lengths while giving them both 10 lbs. Both those horses have won twice since. I also rewatched his Cheltenham win beating Third Time Lucki and as much as he might have got a soft lead as he goes off quick from the front, Third Time Lucki was the only one to get near him and For Pleasure pulled away again up the hill.

He's definitely got his quirks as he wandered about after the last at Cheltenham and hated going right handed at Kempton. He ticks the boxes of having course form and he has tonnes of experience and at 50-1 I think he's too big a price in a weakish looking supreme so far.

[Kevloaf]

No Ordinary Joe is the the next JP Supreme hope I'm getting jiggy with this season after The Bomber Liston and Capodanno

Not even favourite tomorrow.

[Scooby91]

Before the race is ran today.
what's the general consensus?

I believe this is the strongest renewal of the kennel gate that I have ever seen, and imo is far and away the stronger and deeper race than the royal bond which ballyadam won.

People may or may not agree. But interested on thoughts before its ran.

[Scooby91]

No Ordinary Joe is the the next JP Supreme hope I'm getting jiggy with this season after The Bomber Liston and Capodanno

Not even favourite tomorrow.

In what world would be be fav?


landinabo lad soaring glory and even Kim baileys horse have some very smart form coming into this.

My drogo beat the mighty flinteur sacre etc.

Even the rag has won his last 2 and is 130+

He will have to be very special to win this off levels on hurdles debut.

Dusart recieved 4 and would have been no cert what so ever to have beaten soaring glory off levels. With the latter tenderly handled in the closing stages of there race. And that's without the others.

[ComplyOrDie]

Before the race is ran today.
what's the general consensus?

I believe this is the strongest renewal of the kennel gate that I have ever seen, and imo is far and away the stronger and deeper race than the royal bond which ballyadam won.

People may or may not agree. But interested on thoughts before its ran.

It looks a strong race on paper, for sure, time will tell how the form ends up stacking up, I guess.

I think it's between Soaring Glory, and whether or not the JP/Hendo newcomer is any good over hurdles or not, for me.

My Drogo won that weak maiden hurdle that Flinteur Sacre was in, Shantou Express has won over 2m & 2m4f at big odds on prices, and was also beat over them distances prior to his winning sequence starting, Llandinabo Lad has done nothing wrong, beating some in form horses but shoulders a penalty, so will do very well to win, Press Your Luck has won two weak races by not very far, which leaves Soaring Glory, who hopefully will uphold the Dusart form, or the hurdling newcomer, who could be anything.

Coincidentally, about half hour ago I backed the 50/1 special with SkyBet for No Ordinary Joe.

This is my assessment of the race, anyway.

With regards to the Royal Bond, I agree with you, probably wasn't the strongest race, and unless Ballyadam improves markedly for it I struggle to see him winning a Supreme. I think last years was a much better renewal and Abacadabras couldn't win this years Supreme.