Supreme Novices Hurdle 2021

[ToniC]

This thread seems to have got lost a little, due to the combined novices hurdle thread being the more popular option.

But where does everyone stand on current Supreme runners?

Obviously the top of the market is sitting with the Cheveley Park pair of Ballyadam and Ferny Hollow, followed by a Nicky Henderson horse, in Dusart.

Does anyone have anything left that we potentially haven't seen or feels is currently overpriced?

I ask, having just made a small case for one due out on Friday in my diary thread, called Not Available, but also the one other I feel could be overpriced, based on the little we have seen to date is Magic Tricks for JP/Gordon Elliott.

I wouldn’t be sleeping on the Joseph O’Brien horses, lovely crop of bumper horses he had last season so hopefully at least some of them translate that form to obstacles. Could be worth looking outside the 2 most obvious ones, Forged In Fire was really poor the last day & think he’d want an intermediate trip this season, Eric Bloodaxe probably the best bumper form but worrying we haven’t seen him out yet.

Keskonrisk was good on debut as was Fire Attack who I’d say may well have surprised them just how well he run as he took quite a drift before the off that day. Either of these 2 could go to the Supreme & so could Uhtred if we get to see him soon finished a few lengths in front of John Snow when 2nd in a maiden last year with a couple of reasonable bumper wins too. He’s a good trainer Joseph and it’s a shame he’s getting out of the NH game as he could easily get the ammo to be rivalling the big 2 or 3 over there in 5 years time or so.

I think we can be fairly confident we’ve identified Gordon’s leading hope in Ballyadam now, it would be unlike him to have multiple for the race. Will be interesting to see what comes out of Mullins yard over Xmas & early Jan as mentioned, not been too impressed with any of his yet barring the obvious Ferny Hollow, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see him wait for the Moscow Flyer and skip Leopardstown the grade 1 there wouldn’t be one he usually targets with his good ones.

[Run4Home]

This thread seems to have got lost a little, due to the combined novices hurdle thread being the more popular option.

But where does everyone stand on current Supreme runners?

Obviously the top of the market is sitting with the Cheveley Park pair of Ballyadam and Ferny Hollow, followed by a Nicky Henderson horse, in Dusart.

Does anyone have anything left that we potentially haven't seen or feels is currently overpriced?

I ask, having just made a small case for one due out on Friday in my diary thread, called Not Available, but also the one other I feel could be overpriced, based on the little we have seen to date is Magic Tricks for JP/Gordon Elliott.

Strange year where there doesn't seem to be much noise about much we haven't seen yet. Likely the winner has already run

Ballyadam and Ferny would be the obvious top 2 and initial thoughts of one stepping up seem to be wide of the mark, it seems if both fit this is the race for both.

Dusart looks the best of the English but would like to see him again

What's left to come out? Maybe a Mullins one like Fly Smart , Micro Manage, Feu Du Bresil or Figaroc (likely the latter 2 both late in season though) ; but you wouldn't be putting money with any confidence on any.

As stands Ballyadam seems the most solid to be me as we know he's fit and everything coming out of the stable is how a stronger run race will play to strengths even more.

[Lobos]

With Mullins record in the race I'd have to pick Ferney as the number 1 Supreme horse closely followed by Ballyadam. We then need to find Henderson's horse for the race. Today's winner has to now be favourite but perhaps Dusart can put his name in the hat at Xmas or even Flinteur Sacre getting back on track. Ferney for me though as I think Bob Ollinger is a serious horse who can go on and win the Ballymore.

[darlojim]

Hendersons comments after todays race..

Although Lecale’s Article was trimmed from 25-1 into 20-1 for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in March, the reigning champion trainer will continue taking small steps for the moment.

He added: “He is quite good, and I think he is more for chasing next year. I don’t think we will be going anywhere grand over novice hurdles.

“You would have not run any more than that today, but when he goes up a bit in grade he will go a bit further.”

[Topofthegame2021]

Hendersons comments after todays race..

Although Lecale’s Article was trimmed from 25-1 into 20-1 for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in March, the reigning champion trainer will continue taking small steps for the moment.

He added: “He is quite good, and I think he is more for chasing next year. I don’t think we will be going anywhere grand over novice hurdles.

“You would have not run any more than that today, but when he goes up a bit in grade he will go a bit further.”

Those comments sound like Ballymore to me?

[Topofthegame2021]

Hendersons comments after todays race..

Although Lecale’s Article was trimmed from 25-1 into 20-1 for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in March, the reigning champion trainer will continue taking small steps for the moment.

He added: “He is quite good, and I think he is more for chasing next year. I don’t think we will be going anywhere grand over novice hurdles.

“You would have not run any more than that today, but when he goes up a bit in grade he will go a bit further.”

Personally I imagine the yard think more of Lecales Article than they do Dusart. Starting LA off in the same race Shishkin did last year tells plenty. They know the route works so surely they would put their best on the same route.

[ComplyOrDie]

Personally I imagine the yard think more of Lecales Article than they do Dusart. Starting LA off in the same race Shishkin did last year tells plenty. They know the route works so surely they would put their best on the same route.

I don't know one trainer that's followed an exact same route the following season and had the same results. Altior went a completely different way to Shishkin both for Nicky.

Willie's best are usually entered in the Moscow Flyer and/or the Chanelle Pharma.

Gordon hasn't had many, he had the rogue, Labaik, and his prep was somewhat unorthodox anyway given he RR on no less than 4 times up until the point he won the Supreme.

Overall, I wouldn't read too much into where Lecales Article started his hurdling career out.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Personally I imagine the yard think more of Lecales Article than they do Dusart. Starting LA off in the same race Shishkin did last year tells plenty. They know the route works so surely they would put their best on the same route.

From NJH comments today it sounds like Cheltenham is unlikely this season.

[Topofthegame2021]

From NJH comments today it sounds like Cheltenham is unlikely this season.

*gulp* if not then he’s had me by the short and curly!

[Imperial Commander]

Don't I seem to remember Nicky also being vague about the distance Shishkin would be campaigned over last year? Then after his trial he said something like, the Supreme was always where we going to go. This could be accused of being a lazy comparison as they have the same connections but his comments seem similar to last year so do we take them with a good pinch of salt until we see where LA gets entered next time?

[riccirich]

I think with covid a lot of the big trainers are behind and taking a good bit longer than usual to get all their runners out, so imo these novice hurdles markets are not as well developed as usual for this time of year. Take willie mullins for example, a good few of his novice hurdlers that were being talked before the season started about are still to be seen out. Joe chambers mentioned on twitter recently that figaroc will be out in january/february, and it wouldnt surprise me if it was a similar case with the likes of fly smart. I think we may see a lot more novice hurdlers than usual turning up at the festival with only one run under their belt this year, so im keen to hold fire myself at this stage with the novice hurdlers, ive only backed six so far across the supreme, ballymore, ab, mares novice and triumph.

[jono]

I recall Henderson saying Santini was an unlikely runner at the 2018 festival for much of the season. On trials day that year he said

The Albert Bartlett closes next week and he will get an entry, but I think that we are all leaning against it at the moment. I think that he wants another year and to come back as a chaser

So lots may change in terms of where Lecale's Article will go onto as the season progresses. But on those comments today you'd have to be thinking they bypass the festival with him. Plenty of raw ability there though certainly looks to have a quirk in him!

Donnelly is starting to build up quite a string of horses so it may not be too much of a concern but I do wonder if having waited over 2 years to get him onto a racetrack, they'd be inclined to run him whilst they have him fit and well.

[jono]

Couldn't also help but laugh hearing RTV today. They must have mentioned seeing Shishkin a year ago today, and being blown away and thinking we saw something special...

You mean the same race where he fell at the first

[Mr X]

No Ordinary Joe straight into a Grade 2 (Kennel gate) on Friday must be interesting giving the prefference over Dusart in the race by Henderson?

[Redbridge]

I recall NH talking about the stable hand that had the massive accumulator off a few years ago that he placed in the January, Hendo claimed never mind finding all those winners and claimed that he himself had no idea of each animal's eventual targets for the festival back in Jan.