Champion Hurdle 2021

[Craigy14]

I was having a little think about Goshen so thought I’d do a little bit research.

It is well documented that juveniles seem to find it very tough coming out of that company and the following season being a bit of a write off.

I wanted to see if there was anything in the fact that Goshen has not run yet, will it benefit him? What did others do previously. I’ve just went back to 2014 and looked at the winners (Goshen was the likely winner before falling).

2014 Tiger Roll - now he returned in October but was in a 4 year old race which he won. His second outing again in October in open company PU and after that finished down the field the end of December.

2015 Peace and Co - returned in the international, same race Goshen is an intended runner for. He finished last of 6 runners and then was off until Feb where again he disappointed.

2016 Ivanovich Gorbatov - reappearance was in November, he raced twice in November finishing 3rd both and didn’t do much else worth mentioning the rest of the season.

2017 Defi Du Seuil - reappearance run was in November where he failed to fire and was then given a break till Feb (possible injury?) and then disappointed again in Feb.

2018 Farclas - 2 runs in December where she was poor and the season continued in that vain of form, no wins.

2019 Pentland Hills - ran in the International like Peace and Co for Henderson and again failed to fire and the season was a failure.

I suppose to sum up, it just shows how tough it is the following season to hold the juvenile form going into open company. If he doesn’t win I don’t see him becoming a champion hurdler. Looking at the above information I’m not sure imo how anyone can be so bold on Goshen coming into this season and history backs that up. The 2m hurdling scene isn’t great so Saturday still may leave more questions than answers I think.

[ToniC]

The race this weekend wouldn’t be a good trial for the champion hurdle in recent times either, no winners have come via the international hurdle that season since at least 2010. Think the last one would have been Katchit in 2008. British winners since 2010 have generally started in the fighting 5th (binocular & buveur dair) and the listed handicap at Newbury on Hennessy day (rock on ruby & Epatante). Buveur dairs first win the exemption having started the season as a novice chaser then reverted to hurdles after Xmas.

[Middle_Of_March]

It might be better to back him on Saturday now at 5/2 and reinvest if you still wanted him for March.

I certainly wouldn’t back him now for Saturday with his recent record of being pulled before the final decs.

the Moore’s are scared to run him because they know the champion hurdle bubble is burst when they do.

[Faugheen_Machine]

I certainly wouldn’t back him now for Saturday with his recent record of being pulled before the final decs.

the Moore’s are scared to run him because they know the champion hurdle bubble is burst when they do.

I think he'll win comfortably on Saturday. Really like his chances but won't be backing him until after final decs.

[Kevloaf]

I think he'll win comfortably on Saturday. Really like his chances but won't be backing him until after final decs.

Why so sweet on him big man?

I was a bit wary about Epatante against a couple of these..... although then ended up putting 30 points on her so I got over that...

Surely he can't put in a performance like that? Can he?


It'd shake things up on here, I'd absolutely love it for that. Kautothegreat8 will be taking heads! Not many openly big Goshen fans pre race.... if he wins I bet we have loads



I'll be just as bad, I've backed him and have jumped on the fence loads saying how much I hope he is actually a superstar.... proper fence sitting.



Horses like Goshen are what this sport is all about

[opatcho]

Goshen certainty has that "what if" and in a division where people are still trying to get beat Epatante (probably the same folks that tried to get BVD beat on both of his wins)

Goshen will have a few things on his side this weekend, being back on the new course is a bonus as I think that course suits his style more than the old course

I dont know whether I want to take on the 20/1's to win Saturday and the CH, mainly because the Moore's could pull him still, I'm not overly confident he will win on Saturday and I really dont think he will win in March.... so yeah.... sounds like a pass for me

[Faugheen_Machine]

Why so sweet on him big man?

I was a bit wary about Epatante against a couple of these..... although then ended up putting 30 points on her so I got over that...

Surely he can't put in a performance like that? Can he?


It'd shake things up on here, I'd absolutely love it for that. Kautothegreat8 will be taking heads! Not many openly big Goshen fans pre race.... if he wins I bet we have loads



I'll be just as bad, I've backed him and have jumped on the fence loads saying how much I hope he is actually a superstar.... proper fence sitting.



Horses like Goshen are what this sport is all about

I just think he's better than all of these and he's getting the 4 year old allowance. No issue first time up and the stable in decent enough form.

He fascinating isn't he. If he hadn't run on the flat, he'd be odds on in this. One the face of it, the flat runs were disappointing but those runs weren't that bad, and arguably a step up on his previous flat runs.

It seems fashionable to knock Goshen and the Moore's at the moment. What can I say, I'm a sucker for an underdog!

Can a favourite be an underdog?!

[ComplyOrDie]

I just think he's better than all of these and he's getting the 4 year old allowance. No issue first time up and the stable in decent enough form.

He fascinating isn't he. If he hadn't run on the flat, he'd be odds on in this. One the face of it, the flat runs were disappointing but those runs weren't that bad, and arguably a step up on his previous flat runs.

It seems fashionable to knock Goshen and the Moore's at the moment. What can I say, I'm a sucker for an underdog!

Can a favourite be an underdog?!

You're not wrong FM. Let's hope he does the business when seen

[Kevloaf]

I just think he's better than all of these and he's getting the 4 year old allowance. No issue first time up and the stable in decent enough form.

He fascinating isn't he. If he hadn't run on the flat, he'd be odds on in this. One the face of it, the flat runs were disappointing but those runs weren't that bad, and arguably a step up on his previous flat runs.

It seems fashionable to knock Goshen and the Moore's at the moment. What can I say, I'm a sucker for an underdog!

Can a favourite be an underdog?!

Haha, all very fair points.

So we have Team Goshen: COD, FM, Kauto8


Tribal

[Quevega]

Haha, all very fair points.

So we have Team Goshen: COD, FM, Kauto8


Tribal

I'd kind of like him to win.
But have backed against him as the odds are he's not going to win, and they have the race priced wrong.

[ComplyOrDie]

Haha, all very fair points.

So we have Team Goshen: COD, FM, Kauto8


Tribal

Feels like deja vu Only this time I'm not on my own.

I think he wins Saturday should he turn up, whether he'll be good enough at the festival though, that remains to be seen. Either way, Epatante is my biggest winner in the race regardless, so I guess I'll be hoping she backs up last seasons win.

[Middle_Of_March]

Why so sweet on him big man?

I was a bit wary about Epatante against a couple of these..... although then ended up putting 30 points on her so I got over that...

Surely he can't put in a performance like that? Can he?


It'd shake things up on here, I'd absolutely love it for that. Kautothegreat8 will be taking heads! Not many openly big Goshen fans pre race.... if he wins I bet we have loads



I'll be just as bad, I've backed him and have jumped on the fence loads saying how much I hope he is actually a superstar.... proper fence sitting.



Horses like Goshen are what this sport is all about

You may remember me arguing with almost everyone last year on the triumph thread in my claims that Goshen had no chance in the Triumph because he can’t jump.

Whilst he did unseat so I was sort of right, I certainly wouldn’t have claimed that as a moral victory and felt genuinely gutted for people on here for him to lose like that.

However, even if you pretend the shenanigans on the flat this summer and all the will they, won’t they so far this season as to actually running him... a champion hurdler requires proper fluent jumping. Epatante was a sloppy jumper in the Mares Novice Hurdle and it cost her a couple of lengths every time. Fast forward a year to the champion hurdle and her jumping was quite good. Fast forward another few months to that Fighting Fifth and watch her jumping... it couldn’t have been slicker. It was like watching an on-song Buveur D’Air in the jumping department.

Now compare Epatantes jumping to Goshen last season. I feel that Goshen needs to transform his jumping to the level that Epatante did from her novice season to the champion hurdle win. That difference was enormous. Goshen has ZERO chance of winning a Champion Hurdle unless he’s improved his jumping to the amount that she did. Saturday is a big race for Goshen (if he every turns up) in many aspects. And jumping is certainly one of them.

He could win well on Saturday but if he jumps how he has shown so far.. I’d be even more confident that he won’t win a Champion Hurdle. He’s in a couple of the request a bet specials from after the festival last year so I’d actually be pleased if he won as i fancy him in absolutely no way whatsoever. I hope he wins Saturday. I absolutely expect he won’t. And whether he does or doesn’t, his jumping is the most important thing I’ll be watching.

That’s where I stand on the horse.. a proper FJ marmite horse ain’t he.

[FinalFurlong91]

With the way he jumps he is going to need to have a faugheenesque engine to win this

[Kautothegreat8]

Come on Team Goshen !!!!!!

[Nortons who]

Come on Team Goshen !!!!!!

Absolutely, let's just hope he's not squeamish about returning to the scene of the crime (the horse I mean but that goes for Jamie Moore too!).

This sport has a habit of creating compelling storylines and I for one would love to see Goshen make amends for what happened in March.