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The speed figure she did was fairly average according to Andy Holding. Would have to see her again before people start calling her the winner.
Go ahead Spectre nobodys looking
I just had a look at winning times regarding Pink in the Park verses American Mike and The Big Doyen, she was faster on the average going for the track then the other two. Maybe I'm missing something that Andy noticed.
I haven't read Andy Holding's piece, but presumably his figures are time adjusted after comparing the other races run on the card on the same day.
All three won as they liked so I'm not sure any time figures are that relevant though. Just that they were all fast enough, and the manner of victory suggested they all very good.
Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.
Spot on Lobos but I reckon the chances are we have yet to see the winner.
Classic Getaway and I Am Maximus both posted 125 which would certainly give them place prospects at least. But IAM looks set for hurdles.
The more time I spend looking into this the more fascinating it becomes.
Just been through the Oddschecker prices for next year's bumper and the only horses who do fit the bill probably won't run in the race.
Journey With Me posted a 131 rpr on bumper debut and Dysart Dynamo hit 132.
Henry's already said JWM is set for a hurdling campaign and I imagine Dysart Dynamo will go the same way.
Three others in the market have yet to make their bumper debut including Gordon's American Mike and Glowing Account (Willie)
Here's the current market (best prices) with debut rprs
10-1 Classic Getaway 125
12-1 Pink in the Park 115
12-1 Grangeclare West 115
20-1 American Mike
20-1 Cool Survivor
20-1 Hunters Yarn 100
20-1 Dark Raven 121
25-1 I Am Maximus 125
25-1 Guily Billy (going hurdling says Henry)
25-1 Nikini 100
25-1 Jonbon 124
25-1 Hob House 106
25-1 Nos Na Gaoithe 99
25-1 Journey With Me 131
25-1 Dysart Dynamo 132
33-1 Timeforatune 120
33-1 Ashroe Diamond 113
33-1 Level Neverending 100
33-1 Au Fleuron 103
33-1 Glowing Account (Willie)
40-1 Champ Kiely 121
40-1 Go Dante 118
40-1 Non Binding 8 (coughed)
50-1 Might Potter 103
66-1 Wells Glory 109
100-1 Big Changes 92
100-1 Best Pal 82
100-1 Bolintlea 100
Using the debut rpr yardstick would have also found the first two finishers in the 2019 bumper.
In 2018 only one horse in the field posted a debut rpr above 121. That was Carefully Selected who notched a whopping 138 but he was beaten a neck by Relegate.
2017 is interesting because it sort of blows this theory out of the water!!!
But the one saving grace is that only one of the field who lined up qualified under the rpr debut stats - Willie's 11/2 second favourite Carter McKay who trailed in 13th.
My view is that none of the horses who have run in bumpers so far will be good enough to win the big one in March.
I only want to be on board a horse who posts a minimum 128rpr on debut.
Gordon has said American Mike will stick to bumpers this season and has lined him up for the Down Royal race where Sir Gerhard posted 131.
I wasn't overly impressed with American Mike's ptp run even though he won by 20 lengths!!!!
But he's obviously with the right connections in Gordie and Codd, his ptp mark was a shade better than Sir gerhard and...I have been wrong so many times before.
So, as several of the market leaders won't come up to scratch - in my view - I've jumped on board now and will hopefully be able to cash out if he fails to record an exceptional debut rpr (128 minimum).
Willie will no doubt have something up his sleeve and I'll back anything else that hits 128 on debut - but if recent years are any guide the list won't be very long, maybe 3 at most.
It's probably the closest I'll ever come to making a book - perhaps more accurately a pamphlet - but I'm having fun.
6pts win AMERICAN MIKE at 16-1 in the Champion Bumper.
Putting this back to the top. What was the RPR The Big Doyen ran to at the weekend, his debut? Thanks.
So far on my watchlist for this we have the following list based on first time out RPR's:
American Mike 125
Pink In The Park 115 (122 with mares allowance)
The Mediator 121
Champ Kiely 121
Vina Ardanza 112
The Big Doyen 109 (125 2nd run)
Cool Survivor 109
Bellatior 106
And I'm waiting to see Glowing Account.
It's obviously early days, but there won be may that will come out and top the first four now, and they set the standard, and are entitle to improve past The Big Doyen, who had posted 109 on debut before his 125 on Sunday. He's a player but others may have more scope to improve further.
FWIW I think all of the top 5 will be aimed here and I expect Glowing Account will probably join them. Anything else that joins that party is likely to be from Mullins or Elliott anyway. Henderson doesn't target here, and almost every other trainer will already have had there best candidates out now. The only other bumper I'll look forward to is the Newbury Bumper in February, which can throw a left-field contender out, and usually the best of the British turns up there.
Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.
So far on my watchlist for this we have the following list based on first time out RPR's:
American Mike 125
Pink In The Park 115 (122 with mares allowance)
The Mediator 121
Champ Kiely 121
Vina Ardanza 112
The Big Doyen 109 (125 2nd run)
Cool Survivor 109
Bellatior 106
And I'm waiting to see Glowing Account.
It's obviously early days, but there won be may that will come out and top the first four now, and they set the standard, and are entitle to improve past The Big Doyen, who had posted 109 on debut before his 125 on Sunday. He's a player but others may have more scope to improve further.
FWIW I think all of the top 5 will be aimed here and I expect Glowing Account will probably join them. Anything else that joins that party is likely to be from Mullins or Elliott anyway. Henderson doesn't target here, and almost every other trainer will already have had there best candidates out now. The only other bumper I'll look forward to is the Newbury Bumper in February, which can throw a left-field contender out, and usually the best of the British turns up there.
Hopefully we can narrow that list down by 2 soon as well as both Willie and Gordon said that Champ Kiely and Vina Ardanza will be hurdling this season in their racing post tours
FWIW I think all of the top 5 will be aimed here and I expect Glowing Account will probably join them. Anything else that joins that party is likely to be from Mullins or Elliott anyway. Henderson doesn't target here, and almost every other trainer will already have had there best candidates out now. The only other bumper I'll look forward to is the Newbury Bumper in February, which can throw a left-field contender out, and usually the best of the British turns up there.
Yes, the one I am waiting on too. Same owners as the ill-fated Hollowgraphic. I hope he has as much talent as that one looked to have had on his only two starts.
Absolute madness, to put it into perspective, envoi was 9/2 at one point on the day for the champ bumper after having 3 runs.
Biggest reason that tip at 11/2 was not great.
The bumper market in particular can be very volatile after decs, and especially in the final half hour before the race itself.
It's the last race on the card and depending on how other results go, the market will bounce about.
Might not though as last year the top 2 were both around 2-1 or shorter for most of the 48 hours.
Biggest reason that tip at 11/2 was not great.
The bumper market in particular can be very volatile after decs, and especially in the final half hour before the race itself.
It's the last race on the card and depending on how other results go, the market will bounce about.
Might not though as last year the top 2 were both around 2-1 or shorter for most of the 48 hours.
In the last 3 years of the Bumper Elliott and Mullins between them were as follows:
2019 : 1st, 2nd, 4th
2020 : 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th
2021 : 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th
Given the concentration of power into a few stables and the fact that Henry, Hendo and Gigginstown tend to avoid the race (and others such as Nicholls also have misgivings), it has started to become almost a private sweepstake between Willie and Gordon. Although Willie keeps his cards closer to his chest, Gordon tends to be more open about his pecking order and targets and this has led to the 7/2 quote, mad as it seems.
As an aside only Skelton has got in amongst them in the past two years (Elle est Belle and Third Time Lucki) so he at least is still taking the race seriously.
In the last 3 years of the Bumper Elliott and Mullins between them were as follows:
2019 : 1st, 2nd, 4th
2020 : 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th
2021 : 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th
Given the concentration of power into a few stables and the fact that Henry, Hendo and Gigginstown tend to avoid the race (and others such as Nicholls also have misgivings), it has started to become almost a private sweepstake between Willie and Gordon. Although Willie keeps his cards closer to his chest, Gordon tends to be more open about his pecking order and targets and this has led to the 7/2 quote, mad as it seems.
Impossible to argue with this post and does at least give some sort of understanding as to why America Mikes price has drastically reduced over the past month.
Gordon is definitely one for the punters, IMO, in the sense you know fairly early on via the market or the exchanges as to where a horse is likely to be aimed and how highly they rate it.
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