2022 Champion Bumper

[The Giant Bolster]

In the last 3 years of the Bumper Elliott and Mullins between them were as follows:
2019 : 1st, 2nd, 4th
2020 : 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th
2021 : 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th

Given the concentration of power into a few stables and the fact that Henry, Hendo and Gigginstown tend to avoid the race (and others such as Nicholls also have misgivings), it has started to become almost a private sweepstake between Willie and Gordon. Although Willie keeps his cards closer to his chest, Gordon tends to be more open about his pecking order and targets and this has led to the 7/2 quote, mad as it seems.

As an aside only Skelton has got in amongst them in the past two years (Elle est Belle and Third Time Lucki) so he at least is still taking the race seriously.

I agree with this - it feels like the race has changed shape a bit in the last few years. It feels more predictable and more possible to build a book approach. As Buckingham said in the Upping the Ante thread, Gordon has done the sifting for us on American Mike and we know he is number one for one of the two stables to dominate.

I also had a slightly different take looking at RPRs to nortonscoin200 good analysis. I had a look at best RPRs of Bumper runners heading into the race rather than debut RPRs.

Out of 97 runners in the last five years, only 26 had posted 126+ RPRs going into the race. Of those 26, 10 won or placed. So 2/3s of win/place positions have been taken by horses who have this form going into the race. All of the winners in the last 5 years had 126+.

Looking at it by year:

2021: 4 with 126+ and 2 won/placed (Kilcruit and Sir Gerhard)
2020: 9 with 126+ and 2 won/placed (Ferny Hollow and Appreciate It)
2019: 4 with 126+ and 2 won/placed (Envoi Allen and Blue Sari)
2018: 5 with 126+ and 2 won/placed (Relegate and Carefully Selected)
2017: 4 with 126+ and 2 won/placed (Fayonagh and Claimtakinforgan)

So - unless we get another 2020 with a high number of horses running 126+ - American Mike's rating from his first run would suggest he has about a 50/50 chance of at least placing. If we throw in the fact that he will likely come on from his first run and seems to be the first choice of one of the two trainers to target this race, I think his current odds aren't probably far off if he was running in the Bumper tomorrow. My worry would be that they don't factor in risk of injury between now and the Festival.

So I'm really glad I got American Mike at 16s before his run because I think his current price isn't crazy but not one I'd see as providing value. If I see anything else hitting 126 I'll try to cover them off. I've also got Pink in the Park onside based on trainer record even if her first run was a 115 RPR.

[Kevloaf]

I agree with this - it feels like the race has changed shape a bit in the last few years. It feels more predictable and more possible to build a book approach. As Buckingham said in the Upping the Ante thread, Gordon has done the sifting for us on American Mike and we know he is number one for one of the two stables to dominate.

I also had a slightly different take looking at RPRs to nortonscoin200 good analysis. I had a look at best RPRs of Bumper runners heading into the race rather than debut RPRs.

Out of 97 runners in the last five years, only 26 had posted 126+ RPRs going into the race. Of those 26, 10 won or placed. So 2/3s of win/place positions have been taken by horses who have this form going into the race. All of the winners in the last 5 years had 126+.

Looking at it by year:

2021: 4 with 126+ and 2 won/placed (Kilcruit and Sir Gerhard)
2020: 9 with 126+ and 2 won/placed (Ferny Hollow and Appreciate It)
2019: 4 with 126+ and 2 won/placed (Envoi Allen and Blue Sari)
2018: 5 with 126+ and 2 won/placed (Relegate and Carefully Selected)
2017: 4 with 126+ and 2 won/placed (Fayonagh and Claimtakinforgan)

So - unless we get another 2020 with a high number of horses running 126+ - American Mike's rating from his first run would suggest he has about a 50/50 chance of at least placing. If we throw in the fact that he will likely come on from his first run and seems to be the first choice of one of the two trainers to target this race, I think his current odds aren't probably far off if he was running in the Bumper tomorrow. My worry would be that they don't factor in risk of injury between now and the Festival.

So I'm really glad I got American Mike at 16s before his run because I think his current price isn't crazy but not one I'd see as providing value. If I see anything else hitting 126 I'll try to cover them off. I've also got Pink in the Park onside based on trainer record even if her first run was a 115 RPR.

A good post.

I disagree though, a price of 11/2 is still crazy even with the small sample size you've produced... if he places you make a small profit? Absolutely not an ante post prospect at 11/2.



16/1is decent. However id I'd backed that I'd be wanting to lay off my stake immediately.

[Middle_Of_March]

That American Mike price right now is absolutely insane. He’s run once under rules (admittedly looked a weapon) and some of possible rivals in the race will have not even run yet.

That price is just disgracefully short.

[charlie]

That American Mike price right now is absolutely insane. He’s run once under rules (admittedly looked a weapon) and some of possible rivals in the race will have not even run yet.

That price is just disgracefully short.

Ludicrously short. Happens every year this. Ramillies looked ludicrous on debut and was shit thereafter.

[ComplyOrDie]

Ludicrously short. Happens every year this. Ramillies looked ludicrous on debut and was shit thereafter.

Ramillies wasn't the hype horse though, Sir Gerhard was (who also looked ridiculously good on debut), and he won it. Kilcruit was hyped prior to the festival before by Tony Mullins on a ATR festival preview but that soon died of death once he was beat by Captain Kangaroo.

I know, I know, backing the hype horse isn't necessarily the answer, but you could argue it's produced the last 3 winners of the race.

Ferny Hollow went off at a decent price because he didn't live up to the original hype prior to the festival, possibly by design, as I don't think Willie & Patrick are that stupid tbh, but he was definitely one of, if not the most, hyped/talked about horses prior to his debut (possible recency bias because he was under the same ownership as the previous years winner).

Envoi Allen shared the hype with Malone Road, but being owned and trained by the same connections meant only one was ever going to turn up and again Envoi ended up winning it.

American Mike is this years hype job. He had been mentioned a fair few times on Twitter also. Unfortunately it's a pattern that seems to have developed. You're either in early or you miss out and the price has gone.

[jono]

American Mike is this years hype job. He had been mentioned a fair few times on Twitter also. Unfortunately it's a pattern that seems to have developed. You're either in early or you miss out and the price has gone.

The hype horses are the only reason I’ve done well (backed EA, FH and SG, though cashed out the first 2 - like many) in the bumper the last few years. Used to have a shocking record in the race Long may it continue

Agree though. Same thing happened with the Mullins Ricci Supreme horse. Champagne Fever > Vautour > Douvan > Min. By the time that pattern had emerged the bookies took no risks hence the likes of Senewalk, way shorter than any prices of the previous, from the offset.

Sadly the price for American Mike is going to suffer off the back of what other horses in previous years have done.

I always think back to Douvan in the Supreme when we are dealing with hype horses. SP of 2/1Fav that day. Off the back of Mullins saying

"I have said what I think of him. He could be the best I have had, although he has long way to go and has to get past Hurricane Fly, who did what he did. The bar is high for him, but we will see”

Imagine what price he’d be nowadays (and we’re only talking 4 years!) he’d have been smashed off the boards.

[somer1]

That American Mike price right now is absolutely insane. He’s run once under rules (admittedly looked a weapon) and some of possible rivals in the race will have not even run yet.

That price is just disgracefully short.

But MOM isnt all ante post prices on the short side this year? Anything that has run well has taken an ass kicking by the bookies just in case this season. I dont really play ante post on the flat but did the prices there seem shit?

[Middle_Of_March]

But MOM isnt all ante post prices on the short side this year? Anything that has run well has taken an ass kicking by the bookies just in case this season. I dont really play ante post on the flat but did the prices there seem shit?

I have definitely noticed the Cheltenham favs over the summer were shorter than they usually would be. Not too sure about the flat but definitely seems a conscious effort to be shorter antepost on Cheltenham this year from the bookies.

[Many Clouds]

Just watched the Springwell Bay race from last week, picked up really well and looked to be going away from them at the end eased down. Anyone considered/had a punt/stuck him in their tracker for this?

Looking through his debut run 2nd by 3/4 length, carrying 7lb more than the winner and a good 9 lengths back to 3rd. The 3rd, 4th, 5th and 7th from that race have since picked up wins.

[Ray]

Just watched the Springwell Bay race from last week, picked up really well and looked to be going away from them at the end eased down. Anyone considered/had a punt/stuck him in their tracker for this?

Looking through his debut run 2nd by 3/4 length, carrying 7lb more than the winner and a good 9 lengths back to 3rd. The 3rd, 4th, 5th and 7th from that race have since picked up wins.

If im
honest, i wont be looking past the RPR stats that someone put in here, it was solid work in my opinion and is compelling enough for me to overlook anything that doesnt post above 120 on debut

[Quevega]

If im
honest, i wont be looking past the RPR stats that someone put in here, it was solid work in my opinion and is compelling enough for me to overlook anything that doesnt post above 120 on debut

springwell was 122.

[Ray]

springwell was 122.

Yep was jist coming back to say i got that one wrong, and just watched the last couple of furlongs on RP which was impressive enough, however i personaly wont back anything other then mullins or elliot here in searching for my winner!

[Quevega]

Yep was jist coming back to say i got that one wrong, and just watched the last couple of furlongs on RP which was impressive enough, however i personaly wont back anything other then mullins or elliot here in searching for my winner!

same here, but he looks good and i was tempted.

[Ray]

The 122 could be high enough to be placing in a bumper if im not mistaken, so its a nice option for my each way multiples of course

[Olliemagern]

Has jonjo had a runner in this race since 2005? Last I could find on a brief search. Is he like hendo who just doesn’t target the race? That would be my main concern