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It's not just 0/17 Challow winners that doesn't read well. Paul has a rubbish record in the race and the Irish have dominated the race in recent years. Add to that the form of the Challow looking rubbish, and BMG, Thyme Hill and Champ being (probably) considerably more talented horses and still failing to win, you collectively paint a picture of a horse I don't want to go anywhere near tbh.
But on the flip-side.
BMG, Thyme Hill & Champ are all stayers.
Stage Star seems to have more of a turn of foot, so would be more of a typical “Ballymore” horse than the other three.
obviously, he may not even turn up, but in a year where there is no “stand-out” Irish Envoi/Bob/Samcro….
I'd love a bit of bold placement like that from Elliot. Can't see it happening though, not saying he's not bold of course.
I suspect he may have one or two on the boat for the Cleeve so it just fits if he can’t find a suitable race for the horse in Ireland.
As you say, unlikely though…
The Betfair Hurdle is an interesting entry for Stage Star.
The Ballymore is a race I've not really considered any of the UK trained runners for so far. He probably fits the style I like in a Ballymore horse a bit more than most though, in that he does actually have a bit of speed. A regular comment when discussing the fancied Irish runners in here seems to be that they could get caught out by something with a bit more pace, and he does fit that bill to be fair. Maybe I shouldn't have dismissed him just because of where he's trained, when there's actually nothing standout in Ireland so far this year.
The Betfair Hurdle is an interesting entry for Stage Star.
The Ballymore is a race I've not really considered any of the UK trained runners for so far. He probably fits the style I like in a Ballymore horse a bit more than most though, in that he does actually have a bit of speed. A regular comment when discussing the fancied Irish runners in here seems to be that they could get caught out by something with a bit more pace, and he does fit that bill to be fair. Maybe I shouldn't have dismissed him just because of where he's trained, when there's actually nothing standout in Ireland so far this year.
Don’t think I’ve ever dismissed a horse cos of where he’s trained.
Stage star looks a definite runner in this, and to
my eyes been no less impressive than the Irish horses of which I don’t really know which turn up here.
If I were to have a bet now SS is the only one I would consider without nrnb.
But I’m waiting.
Don’t think I’ve ever dismissed a horse cos of where he’s trained.
Stage star looks a definite runner in this, and to
my eyes been no less impressive than the Irish horses of which I don’t really know which turn up here.
If I were to have a bet now SS is the only one I would consider without nrnb.
But I’m waiting.
I mean dismissed from my early positions rather than ruled him out completely. I'd obviously naturally have another look at entries and again at declaration stage.
Think this is turning into a really strong race for Ireland though. That with their recent dominance at the festival means I don't want to be wasting antepost bets on UK trained horses in certain races. Something I've done too often in the recent past. Think it's worked out quite a good strategy in a lot of races to be honest. And I'll be doing the same in some of the handicaps.
This race is an anomaly in the sense that nothing definite for the race has appeared from Ireland.
Being with Nichols is also a negative with a view to Cheltenham imo. Not just because he's UK based.
Last edited by Benjy23; 13 January 2022, 07:47 AM.
I mean dismissed from my early positions rather than ruled him out completely. I'd obviously naturally have another look at entries and again at declaration stage.
Think this is turning into a really strong race for Ireland though. That with their recent dominance at the festival means I don't want to be wasting antepost bets on UK trained horses in certain races. Something I've done too often in the recent past. Think it's worked out quite a good strategy in a lot of races to be honest. And I'll be doing the same in some of the handicaps.
This race is an anomaly in the sense that nothing definite for the race has appeared from Ireland.
Being with Nichols is also a negative with a view to Cheltenham imo. Not just because he's UK based.
Well way it’s been lately you have been right to focus on the Irish, and this year it looks like SS against the Irish so it’s stacked in their favour for sure.
I do think SS is a bit different to BMG from last year in that he might be more suited to this race than he was? So I am keeping an interest in him.
Well way it’s been lately you have been right to focus on the Irish, and this year it looks like SS against the Irish so it’s stacked in their favour for sure.
I do think SS is a bit different to BMG from last year in that he might be more suited to this race than he was? So I am keeping an interest in him.
I think Stage Star is a good 10lb's shy of whats required to win a normal ballymore.
However, the better horses might be running over 2 miles this year and you might only need a few more pounds improvement.
With Gordon running Gringo over here it does give a small form line with a few Irish horses.
It's just whether you trust Gringo's run completely as it could easily have been part of a plan to ensure he is fairly handicapped.
If Stage Star has an OR of 143, then it'd be hard to place Gringo too near him, based on that run.
Stage Star's current price though looks awful and he should be double figures at least, based on a lot of what people have written above.
I think Stage Star is a good 10lb's shy of whats required to win a normal ballymore.
However, the better horses might be running over 2 miles this year and you might only need a few more pounds improvement.
With Gordon running Gringo over here it does give a small form line with a few Irish horses.
It's just whether you trust Gringo's run completely as it could easily have been part of a plan to ensure he is fairly handicapped.
If Stage Star has an OR of 143, then it'd be hard to place Gringo too near him, based on that run.
Stage Star's current price though looks awful and he should be double figures at least, based on a lot of what people have written above.
I think this race is heading Ireland’s way but if I was looking for options among British horses I would not land on Stage Star personally. The two that for me represent more value are wonderwall and Elle est belle. EEB only needs to improve 3 pounds for a step up in trip to dead heat with SS on ratings factoring in the allowance. I’d be amazed if she hasn’t got significantly more improvement in her than that. In an hour or so we will know if she has been declared for Warwick if so recognising they are constantly entering her amongst the boys (ooh er bishop) I think this will be her race as imo they will want to take advantage of the allowance rather than take on senior mares in the MH with no allowance.
Regards wonderwall I just think he is improving fast. He was very immature as a bumper horse but didn’t disgrace himself in the CB. He was also very green fto and his jumping wasn’t great, but was in total control throughout the Doncaster race, improved 16 pounds on rpr and looks to be rapidly on the rise and at more than double the price looks better value to me.....but as I say I think the Irish will win it
I think this race is heading Ireland’s way but if I was looking for options among British horses I would not land on Stage Star personally. The two that for me represent more value are wonderwall and Elle est belle. EEB only needs to improve 3 pounds for a step up in trip to dead heat with SS on ratings factoring in the allowance. I’d be amazed if she hasn’t got significantly more improvement in her than that. In an hour or so we will know if she has been declared for Warwick if so recognising they are constantly entering her amongst the boys (ooh er bishop) I think this will be her race as imo they will want to take advantage of the allowance rather than take on senior mares in the MH with no allowance.
Regards wonderwall I just think he is improving fast. He was very immature as a bumper horse but didn’t disgrace himself in the CB. He was also very green fto and his jumping wasn’t great, but was in total control throughout the Doncaster race, improved 16 pounds on rpr and looks to be rapidly on the rise and at more than double the price looks better value to me.....but as I say I think the Irish will win it
Wonderwall through pull again green is a No for me.
I think you've got carried away with the City Chief formline.
The horse that fell in the challow is just as likely to have folded. He did go off the outsider of the field.
All look like 130+ horses.
Wouldn't rule them out of the Pipe.
Surrey Quest could be an improver, but I often only see handicappers running in the Leamington in recent years.
So any winner on Saturday would need to do it easily.
Wonderwall through pull again green is a No for me.
I think you've got carried away with the City Chief formline.
The horse that fell in the challow is just as likely to have folded. He did go off the outsider of the field.
All look like 130+ horses.
Wouldn't rule them out of the Pipe.
Surrey Quest could be an improver, but I often only see handicappers running in the Leamington in recent years.
So any winner on Saturday would need to do it easily.
Nothing whatsoever to do with city chief or party business (in case you couldn’t remember his name ) it’s to do with wonderwall. I liked the horse last year but thought he was very immature, I thought he did everything wrong on his debut but still ran respectably and I like the improvement he showed at Doncaster and was pleasantly surprised at how much he had obviously learnt. The way he traveled was eye catching to me and recorded an rpr of 136 not getting out of second gear and is more than double SS price so it’s a value thing as I obviously badly tried to point out in my previous post.
It’s irrelevant to me that city chief was in the race as he clearly needs further which was my original view and I stupidly managed to tell myself that perhaps it was pace and not stamina that he displayed behind party business. No it was very clearly stamina.
For me it is far too early to limit both EEB and Wonderwall as being sub 140 horses after 5 runs over hurdles between them and both doing everything wrong possible fto. EEB recorded a 135 rpr lto despite being wrong at the weights, running imo over an inadequate trip and with the race being run polar opposite to how she would have liked.
anyhow it’s likely all academic as I think one of the Irish novices wins it, but I don’t even know what runs in it let alone wins.
On a slightly different topic but related to EEB, Skelton is going through a quiet spell right now and I wonder if he is jabbing his horses so despite my posts I am not convinced we will see EEB at her best Saturday if she does run.
Nothing whatsoever to do with city chief or party business (in case you couldn’t remember his name ) it’s to do with wonderwall. I liked the horse last year but thought he was very immature, I thought he did everything wrong on his debut but still ran respectably and I like the improvement he showed at Doncaster and was pleasantly surprised at how much he had obviously learnt. The way he traveled was eye catching to me and recorded an rpr of 136 not getting out of second gear and is more than double SS price so it’s a value thing as I obviously badly tried to point out in my previous post.
It’s irrelevant to me that city chief was in the race as he clearly needs further which was my original view and I stupidly managed to tell myself that perhaps it was pace and not stamina that he displayed behind party business. No it was very clearly stamina.
For me it is far too early to limit both EEB and Wonderwall as being sub 140 horses after 5 runs over hurdles between them and both doing everything wrong possible fto. EEB recorded a 135 rpr lto despite being wrong at the weights, running imo over an inadequate trip and with the race being run polar opposite to how she would have liked.
anyhow it’s likely all academic as I think one of the Irish novices wins it, but I don’t even know what runs in it let alone wins.
On a slightly different topic but related to EEB, Skelton is going through a quiet spell right now and I wonder if he is jabbing his horses so despite my posts I am not convinced we will see EEB at her best Saturday if she does run.
Probably best to assume most horses will not get much above the 145 rating. IMO.
It's a pretty low percentage of maiden winners that go on to be rated higher.
It is too early, I agree.
But the odds are in my favour.
Probably best to assume most horses will not get much above the 145 rating. IMO.
It's a pretty low percentage of maiden winners that go on to be rated higher.
It is too early, I agree.
But the odds are in my favour.
Yes well I have been talking about British horses at 20s and 33s ...it was hardly going to be plain sailing but it’s something a little different from the debate over which Of the Irish are going to run in this race. Totally understandable btw as answering this unlocks a lot.
I've mentioned Elle Est Belle a few times in here and actually backed her in few multis. Slight lie earlier about ignoring all the English Just the ones below 33/1.
Interesting point about Skelton's running below form earlier. If she's not going to do herself justice I'd rather she didn't run at the weekend.
I've mentioned Elle Est Belle a few times in here and actually backed her in few multis. Slight lie earlier about ignoring all the English Just the ones below 33/1.
Interesting point about Skelton's running below form earlier. If she's not going to do herself justice I'd rather she didn't run at the weekend.
Yes on one hand the declaration will be a clear cash out message to folks that may have her for the mnh or even supreme as she was 66 for that. But on the other hand I’d also prefer her not to run unless she is very close to A1.
interestingly HS is jacked up on viva Lavilla...not sure if that means anything
I've mentioned Elle Est Belle a few times in here and actually backed her in few multis. Slight lie earlier about ignoring all the English Just the ones below 33/1.
Interesting point about Skelton's running below form earlier. If she's not going to do herself justice I'd rather she didn't run at the weekend.
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) it’s to do with wonderwall. I liked the horse last year but thought he was very immature, I thought he did everything wrong on his debut but still ran respectably and I like the improvement he showed at Doncaster and was pleasantly surprised at how much he had obviously learnt. The way he traveled was eye catching to me and recorded an rpr of 136 not getting out of second gear and is more than double SS price so it’s a value thing as I obviously badly tried to point out in my previous post.
but it’s something a little different from the debate over which Of the Irish are going to run in this race. Totally understandable btw as answering this unlocks a lot.
Just the ones below 33/1.
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