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I'm going to have to take a good look at this race and take a real swing at it. There's a ridiculous amount of horses in the market that wont go here, just aren't good enough, have had a setback or are staying over hurdles.
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I've only backed with free bets for the Arkle. Real bet is in the JLT so far... but that was because he was 40/1 and only 25s Arkle.
I really, really, really like him.
I hope he can jump, if his debut is going well I'll likely back him in running again.
I was very close to backing TD. But think he'll be done for a turn of foot / higher cruising speed in a small field. Much easier to make up the ground in a big field, hurdle race. with less emphasis over jumping.
Watching last years arkle back. TD would never have been able to lay up with DDG, and then DDG went for home and quickened up , off that pace.
Melon for one could travel on that pace within himself. felix desjy has a high cruising speed too (unfortunate if he's out) al dancer can go the pace, and iv a lot more videos to watch on the rest of the potential field.
Very unusual year where theres hardly anything from any of the grade 1 open company hurdles bar melon. Not even anything from the county (RIP we have a dream, who I'd have backed)
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I'm going to have to take a good look at this race and take a real swing at it. There's a ridiculous amount of horses in the market that wont go here, just aren't good enough, have had a setback or are staying over hurdles.
For me a lot will depend on the noises coming out of Closutton. I’ve taken early positions on both Melon & Draconien. Melon might be the one but at the least will be a good benchmark for anything else than Mullins targets the race with?
I think Thomas Darby, provided he can jump a fence, looks nailed on for a place, at minimum, and at 25/1 is my main bet so far, though I do have Sharjah at smaller stakes and expecting to cash out soon enough though.
Early free bet used on Draconien too, Melon will only be backed 'any race' until I see him over a fence.
For me a lot will depend on the noises coming out of Closutton. I’ve taken early positions on both Melon & Draconien. Melon might be the one but at the least will be a good benchmark for anything else than Mullins targets the race with?
Draconien has never excited me personally, but nothing really does in the market this year and theres no standout. That's for sure.
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I think Thomas Darby, provided he can jump a fence, looks nailed on for a place, at minimum, and at 25/1 is my main bet so far, though I do have Sharjah at smaller stakes and expecting to cash out soon enough though.
Early free bet used on Draconien too, Melon will only be backed 'any race' until I see him over a fence.
Cashed FD out after the news earlier.
Despite my win worries with him.
I certainly wont knock TD at all as an EW bet. Hes a big, big, price too.
One I'd be deffinately be backing at 25s EW with cashout.
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Draconien has never excited me personally, but nothing really does in the market this year and theres no standout. That's for sure.
I know what you mean but it was just Mullins’ comments about how much he had matured at the beginning of last year and “being in the same league as Footpad” that I keep playing back. If he makes anything like the same noises this year then 33s will look huge. Clearly a fragile sort tho so a bit of a leap of faith.
One I like at a price for this is Rouge Vif. Currently 33s available and his form last year was pretty solid finished in front of Thomas Darby at Kempton and beat Getaway Trump at Kelso. His jumping at times was a bit clumsy so hope that improves over fences. If Felix Desjy doesn't make it I could see him bowling along in front and getting into a rhythm. Hopefully will run on Saturday in what could be a hot race with the current entries and we'll get an early idea where he ranks.
Have given in and backed Thomas Darby for this. I still think he'll be better over further and hope he'll turn out in the JLT. Think 2 miles might just be too quick for him but at 25s with b365 it's a no brainer when both trainer and jockey have earmarked openly that this is his target to work back from.
Out of the top 20 in the market you can put a line through over half of them (Laurina, Klassical Dream, Band Of Outlaws, Malone Road, Samcro, Champ, City Island, Fusil Raffles, Summerville Boy, Aramon). The likes of Thomas Darby, Getaway Trump and Angels Breath could all easily emerge as players in this but I just think the Irish hand will be stronger. Willie has won 4 out of the last 5 and once you have put lines through everything that runs elsewhere, Melon stands out and I think is still a decent bet @ 12/1. Draconien is a complete punt at this stage, but I am happy to have these two in the book, plus 2 free bets on Thomas Darby @ 25/1.
The one I have just added is Fakir D'oudairies @ 25/1 with B365 (as short as 14's elsewhere). I know there is a chance he stays hurdling but they have mentioned chasing and I think JOB will have unfinished business with the race after their bad luck with Le Richbourg last year. We know he handles Cheltenham. It's speculative but with B365 being the best priced and with cash out, it seems the right horse and price to add all things considered.
Interesting one is Five O Clock for Ricci and Mullins - 365 price is at 12/1 while Sky Bet price it as 40/1. Joe Chambers suggested he would go chasing but Ricci has said he will go hurdling this season but 'a chaser in the making' - just one to keep an eye on anyway whether he does go hurdling or chasing as seems to be held in high regard.
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