Arkle 2020

[JackieMoon33]

Agree with this (though I'll be siding with AD)
Sums up generally what I'm after for most horses at this stage of the season. Easy to go overboard and far too critical on chase debuts. Not the easiest course to start off at either

Yes both fancied horses thrown in at the deep end on debut. I posted a few weeks back that each novice chase winner from the last festival lost on their seasonal debut.

[jonthehammer]

Nice that from Brewin.
probably go up in trip but that was speedy enough and he was held up off what looked a decent pace. Ran on nicely, hill would help.
added 25-1 arkle b365.

Brewin needs to polish up the jumping, GBB jumped much better for me and I think both will do pretty well this season

[Lobos]

Yes both fancied horses thrown in at the deep end on debut. I posted a few weeks back that each novice chase winner from the last festival lost on their seasonal debut.

Good point. I do expect one of AD or GT to win tomorrow though. Don't ask me which one !

[Kevloaf]

Yes both fancied horses thrown in at the deep end on debut. I posted a few weeks back that each novice chase winner from the last festival lost on their seasonal debut.

Can you go back further to put some meat on the bones for that?

(Please cos I can't be bothered tonight)



.... last season was a freak season, the ground was good to firm in October last year, I feel we should be aware that last year might be a one off.



Now obviously if you look back and it's a trend that the Arkle, JLT, RSA and 4 miler winners more often than not DON'T win on debut, it'll make me sit up and take note?


Every race and horse on their merits, and often value can be found after a defeat but if Getaway Trump is beaten tomorrow, the market may over react but ultimately, it's not a positive

[JackieMoon33]

Can you go back further to put some meat on the bones for that?

(Please cos I can't be bothered tonight)



.... last season was a freak season, the ground was good to firm in October last year, I feel we should be aware that last year might be a one off.



Now obviously if you look back and it's a trend that the Arkle, JLT, RSA and 4 miler winners more often than not DON'T win on debut, it'll make me sit up and take note?


Every race and horse on their merits, and often value can be found after a defeat but if Getaway Trump is beaten tomorrow, the market may over react but ultimately, it's not a positive

I don’t have time for more meat either other than to add that those 3 Festival novice chase winners actually got beat twice before winning on the big day.

[JackieMoon33]

I’m sure it was a freak year and most winners of the novice chases do win on debut and probably go unbeaten in the run up to Cheltenham. Even Western Warhorse managed that!

[ComplyOrDie]

I'll probably have a bit of time at work to take a look back over the years, not to prove anyone right or wrong, just like these sort of things with trends at stake!

[Scooby91]

I'll probably have a bit of time at work to take a look back over the years, not to prove anyone right or wrong, just like these sort of things with trends at stake!

Bar a silly fall from uds when miles clear. The previous 8 (before last year) were undefeated.

The last one to be beat was captain chris. Then it goes undefeated again.

[jono]

So looking back over the last 7 running of the Arkle JLT and RSA...

Arkle

DdG 1 win / 3 races
Footpad 3/3
Altior 3/3
Douvan 3/3
UdS 2/3
WW 1/1
Simonsig 2/2

= 16 wins from 19 runs

JLT

DdS 2/4
Shattered Love 4/5
Yorkhill 2/2
Black Hercules 2/3
Vautour 2/3
TdS 3/5
Benef 2/5

= 17 wins from 27 runs

RSA

TOTG 1/3
Percy 3/5
Might Bite 2/5
Blaklion 2/5
Don Poli 2/2
O'Faolains Boy 1/3
Lord Windermere 1/5

= 12 wins from 28 runs

Only 7 horses:

Footpad
Altior
Douvan
Western Warhorse
Simonsig
Yorkhill
Don Poli

Went unbeaten from 21 winners.

The Arkle clearcut ahead in the percentage of wins against runs. That said we've been absolutely blessed with some of the best 2 miles going over this period in Altior, Douvan and Simonsig (and like mentioned UdS was a fall away from doing so and in that bracket) who were just always going to win any race you threw at them. So rather than think the Arkle generally is a race you'd want to be going through the trials unbeaten I'd lean towards some freaks of the game skewing that stat. If we have a few more years without them the race may look more like the others. To a lesser extent it's also a race with historically less runs prior which could give fewer chances of defeat...

Even Don Poli, Yorkhill and Footpad at the time looked to be future superstars in their divisions...

With more time and thinking of today's AD vs GT matchup in mind - I might (or anyone else feel free to) look at how often horses have faced each other and then turned around the form come the big day. I.e Defi du Seuil turning round the Dipper form with Lostintranslation (albeit did so in the Scilly Isles) The above would show being beaten isn't a nail in the coffin but are defeats to market rivals in trials? I.e take Presenting Percy won 3 of his 5 races. The 3 horses to beat him were Our Duke (gold cup) Shattered Love (jlt) and Jury Duty (4 miler) who all ran in other races come Cheltenham. So they weren't defeats by a direct rival. Take Petit Mouchoir though. His defeat to Footpad in the Dublin trial, would past data suggest he was never going to overturn it despite at the time some saying fitness, run after layoff etc etc. Obviously not something to rule a horse out completely and past data doesnt actually dictate the future outcome but interesting all the same (for me at least!!)

All in all a defeat wouldn't be a huge alarm bell for me prior to Cheltenham. I used to be much harsher and want that string of 1s next to a name come March. Getting into the sport around the rise of Mullins and the Ricci stars possibly the reason for that. Far more lenient now and try and judge it on the Novice chasers go more on technique and jumping and so on not just the bare result. As long as they look to be showing enough promise I can forgive a defeat to a degree.
Even then you get defi du seuil chase debut last year though and I defy anyone who took positives then or even suggesting up in trip it would be a different story!

So far Reserve Tank and Lisnagar Oscar are two fairly high profile chase debutants to meet defeat. Now I dont particularly fancy either that much at this stage but if I had backed them for anything, I would have still been fairly satisfied with both runs. Neither enhanced their claims by any means but showed enough there imo

[ComplyOrDie]

Top work Jono

[Scooby91]

If al dancer doesn't win, I'll be cashing him personally.

Id be far more stringent, and wouldnt have much time for something like brewin up a storm who scrapes home. I don't think he would have pulled clear , 100 yards past the line, imo.

[JackieMoon33]

Top work Jono

Indeed - fantastic effort there!

[ComplyOrDie]

If al dancer doesn't win, I'll be cashing him personally.

Id be far more stringent, and wouldnt have much time for something like brewin up a storm who scrapes home. I don't think he would have pulled clear , 100 yards past the line, imo.

I fancy both to go out in trip in time, but one of them is going to lose today, and possibly could happen sooner.

I'd be extremely disappointed if Al Dancer was the losing horse though!

[JackieMoon33]

I fancy both to go out in trip in time, but one of them is going to lose today, and possibly could happen sooner.

I'd be extremely disappointed if Al Dancer was the losing horse though!

Based on what we know, they should be very closely matched so I'm not sure I'd be disappointed if I was in either camp, unless they jump terribly or get hammered. I still think fitness will be the deciding factor today so I won't cash anything in unless Trumpy can't jump for toffee or gets hammered by 10+ lengths.

[ComplyOrDie]

Based on what we know, they should be very closely matched so I'm not sure I'd be disappointed if I was in either camp,

It's more so I think Al Dancer is more a 2miler than Getaway Trump, though I'm not actually in either camp. As said also, I think both will go out in trip, whether this season or not, who knows!

Fitness will be key, as you noted.