Arkle 2020

[Coneygree15]

Don't fancy strongly any of the ones near top of the market. And as has already been said. Lots are not going to come here.
Already backed Grand Sancy, as fancy one of nichols novices will likely make an impression, added it to B365 and was very happy with 40's.
Backed Quick Grabim also and hope they go chasing as he looks a definite 2 miler and running style may well suit.

Like the chances of Getaway Trump & Thomas Darby although both will need to be campaigned well and especially TD as he looks like another Kalashnikov to me and needs further (or a strongly run race on soft) to be at his best.

I've just backed Notebook at 50's, been watching the Punchestown meet from the other day and he jumped a perfect round under another excellent ride from Blackmore (she presents them at the fence really well, especially when they're talented enough anyway).
Not that good over hurdles but was probably always likely to be a better chaser after coming from PTP's.
Be amazed if it's good enough, but they all look shite right now and it looks good enough to shorten in price and win one or two races anyway.

I'm glad someone else has backed Notebook for this. 50s with cashout is worth a pop: HdB's last two winners of that particular Beginners' Chase were Some Plan and Petit Mouchoir, and they both ended up in the Arkle in March. Notebook would have to improve massively to even make the field at this stage, but as you say Q, the horse just wasn't tried over hurdles and is clearly a superb natural jumper, so has the sort of profile where you can keep your fingers crossed for a 20 pound improvement over the bigger obstacles. Anyway, the price is 50/1 so of course there are going to be negatives.

[Scooby91]

I'm glad someone else has backed Notebook for this. 50s with cashout is worth a pop: HdB's last two winners of that particular Beginners' Chase were Some Plan and Petit Mouchoir, and they both ended up in the Arkle in March. Notebook would have to improve massively to even make the field at this stage, but as you say Q, the horse just wasn't tried over hurdles and is clearly a superb natural jumper, so has the sort of profile where you can keep your fingers crossed for a 20 pound improvement over the bigger obstacles. Anyway, the price is 50/1 so of course there are going to be negatives.

Nothing to do with notebook himself. But just personal opinion that i'v never got this line of de bromhead is amazing with 2m chasers. Going from hurdles to fences and improving a ton.

Imo Hes done a pretty poor job of identity thief / petit mouchoir who were big prospects with very high hurdle ratings,

the same thoughts were applied to paloma blue last year, and although I didn't rate the horse, he got very little out of him.

[jack1092]

On Notebook lads, i thought he looked a big bull on the tv anyway. Unless the 2nd giggy horse is a pony lol. Was impressive first time up anyway.

[JackieMoon33]

Itchy Feet and Grand Sancy both confirmed for the Listed Hurdle at Kempton on Sunday. Probably not an indication of their future plans as they could be after a nice pot and checking to see what improvement they've made over hurdles, before committing to chasing. If they do go chasing afterwards then at least they'll be race fit.

[Quevega]

Nothing to do with notebook himself. But just personal opinion that i'v never got this line of de bromhead is amazing with 2m chasers. Going from hurdles to fences and improving a ton.

Imo Hes done a pretty poor job of identity thief / petit mouchoir who were big prospects with very high hurdle ratings,

the same thoughts were applied to paloma blue last year, and although I didn't rate the horse, he got very little out of him.

Agree with that, it's a bit of a stale observation these days. And probably never that accurate in the first place.
Bit Like Jonjo O'Neill being a good trainer to follow for the big staying handicap's (although he did alright for a few years).

[Saxon Warrior]

I mentioned in the JLT thread, spreading my research on this race to include horses going over fences after 2 years over hurdles. This has come about as I couldn’t find many options for this race coming from last seasons novice hurdlers.

I would love Willie to route Sharjah over 2M fences, and 33/1 is massive if he did, but I have only heard of a further season over hurdles mentioned regarding Sharjah. Hope to be quick off the mark if a Stable Tour from Closutton suggested that fences are a possibility.

In the meantime I was impressed by NUBE NEGRA’s first run over fences. He looks a decent size, has always travelled well in his hurdle races, including when 3rd in the 2018 Fred Winter. He is a longshot to consider, especially if Dan Skelton aims him at a Cheltenham Graded Novice Chase in October/November.

His debut over fences is already rated above any rating he had achieved over hurdles. He has an Offical a Rating of 142 over fences after one run. His hurdles OR is 137.

[Kevloaf]

I mentioned in the JLT thread, spreading my research on this race to include horses going over fences after 2 years over hurdles. This has come about as I couldn’t find many options for this race coming from last seasons novice hurdlers.

I would love Willie to route Sharjah over 2M fences, and 33/1 is massive if he did, but I have only heard of a further season over hurdles mentioned regarding Sharjah. Hope to be quick off the mark if a Stable Tour from Closutton suggested that fences are a possibility.

In the meantime I was impressed by NUBE NEGRA’s first run over fences. He looks a decent size, has always travelled well in his hurdle races, including when 3rd in the 2018 Fred Winter. He is a longshot to consider, especially if Dan Skelton aims him at a Cheltenham Graded Novice Chase in October/November.

His debut over fences is already rated above any rating he had achieved over hurdles. He has an Offical a Rating of 142 over fences after one run. His hurdles OR is 137.

Might end up being a Close Brothers or Grand Annual plot with that kind of mark?

[Quevega]

Might end up being a Close Brothers or Grand Annual plot with that kind of mark?

Looks and ideal type for close brothers even at this early stage.

[Kevloaf]

My eyes tell me Thomas Darby will want the JLT trip and I've already backed at 40/1

However, until this morning I've only had a free bet on him for the Arkle - decided to back him at 25s with Cashout available this morning as I watched back the Supreme, I really, really like him and on 26th Sept Olly Murphy mentioned the Arkle... https://betting.betfair.com/horse-ra...00919-801.html

So I'll go with the trainer for now and when I prove him wrong later in the season I'll cash out the Arkle bet for profit anyway

[Faugheen_Machine]

TD reminds me so much of Tidal Bay and he didn't do badly in the Arkle.....

[Kevloaf]

TD reminds me so much of Tidal Bay and he didn't do badly in the Arkle.....

His Arkle was just before I had got the bug... why does he remind you of TB?

[Morley Street]

Anybody fancy 25s about Summerville Boy... he apparently treats his fences with more respect than his hurdles...will need to! Seeing those colours getting up in next year’s Arkle could give some disturbing flashbacks to the Warhorse!

[Scooby91]

Anybody fancy 25s about Summerville Boy... he apparently treats his fences with more respect than his hurdles...will need to! Seeing those colours getting up in next year’s Arkle could give some disturbing flashbacks to the Warhorse!

Not too dis-similar profile to defi if you fancy him.
The Supreme looking poor atm. So I wouldn't knock trying to go outside of the novices.

Im hoping thomas darby and al dancer can do the business in there respective races this week and give the race a bit of a boost. The 12/1 on melon is even looking big atm.

[Can't Catch Me]

I've added Rouge Vif ew at 33/1. Was looking forward to seeing him over fences and thought that was a pretty impressive start. Jumped straight and accurate and looks every inch a chaser. Could be this seasons Lalor but worth a small dabble I think.

His hurdles form has a fairly solid look to it. Decisive winner of a Grade 2 beating Windsor Avenue who looked like a good horse himself at the weekend. He then went on to finish 3rd in the Grade One at Aintree behind Felix Desjy and Aramon which looks pretty solid form.

Probably will fall just sort of the top level, but 33/1 seems a good enough option with cash out when loads at the head of the market won't be running. I suppose the JLT could be an option but he's been kept to 2m so far.

[ComplyOrDie]

There are worse 33/1 shots, and at least you've seen him jump a fence now, my problem is I just don't think he'll be good enough, although a step up in trip may be worth a shot in time.

You have noted he will probably just fall short and I think you are bang on with that assessment.