Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Spectre]

There are two horses I want to add to my Cheltenham portfolio, but I can't get myself over the line for the respective races they'll end up in.

Pencilfulloflead is an RSA horse to my mind, or even the NH Chase would suit on better ground. If it came up soft or heavy he could even go to the Marsh I suppose.

Eklat de Rire looks made for the National Hunt Chase (already qualified), but given he's with De Bromhead I can see him turning up in the RSA instead given he doesn't have an obvious alternative that looks good enough for that race.

I know some would suggest the any race option or dutching the races, but they're both the kind of horses that I want for the correct race, and if I can't get my head around them I'd rather concede a few points and back them later. I'd like to see if you guys have any strong opinions about either horse before I decide what to do?

[Kautostar]

Im fairly certain pencilfulloflead will go to the rsa, he looks to be elliots top stayer now easywork is out. He already has the fav in the nh chase in galvin so there’s no point in doubling up and having nothing of note the rsa.

I agree with you re eklat de rire, nh chase would suit best but I think he’ll go to the rsa. Less confident in this one however.

[Lobos]

Was tempted to get Pencil on board but just think that Right Handed around Limerick Asterion Forlonge is likely to have too much pace for him. AF is a no bet for me for Cheltenham though in view of his disastrous Supreme performance.

[germanshepherd]

There are two horses I want to add to my Cheltenham portfolio, but I can't get myself over the line for the respective races they'll end up in.

Pencilfulloflead is an RSA horse to my mind, or even the NH Chase would suit on better ground. If it came up soft or heavy he could even go to the Marsh I suppose.

Eklat de Rire looks made for the National Hunt Chase (already qualified), but given he's with De Bromhead I can see him turning up in the RSA instead given he doesn't have an obvious alternative that looks good enough for that race.

I know some would suggest the any race option or dutching the races, but they're both the kind of horses that I want for the correct race, and if I can't get my head around them I'd rather concede a few points and back them later. I'd like to see if you guys have any strong opinions about either horse before I decide what to do?

They're already said NH Chase is the target but he's ground dependant. No chance he runs in the Marsh.

[Kevloaf]

They're already said NH Chase is the target but he's ground dependant. No chance he runs in the Marsh.

Where have the owners or trainer stated the NH Chase is the target, I haven't seen that?

[germanshepherd]

It was the owners. Think someone posted a link on here. They definitely said it's the target but emphasised he's ground dependent. Easywork has died since then though.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Was tempted to get Pencil on board but just think that Right Handed around Limerick Asterion Forlonge is likely to have too much pace for him. AF is a no bet for me for Cheltenham though in view of his disastrous Supreme performance.

The most interesting horse in the race is Janidil for me. How far would be need to be beaten for them to start looking at the handicaps. Weakness in the market might just be a sign of their intentions.

[Craigy14]

They also have Conflated now who looks to be going to the 3m novice on the 29th. He could be Elliotts RSA horse if winning over Xmas.

Pencil could go either imo but I think it will depend on Conflated. If he’s not good enough Pencil surely RSA.

[YoungHustler]

Where have the owners or trainer stated the NH Chase is the target, I haven't seen that?

The King Pimm had a quote from somewhere I believe.

[7barrows]

The most interesting horse in the race is Janidil for me. How far would be need to be beaten for them to start looking at the handicaps. Weakness in the market might just be a sign of their intentions.

Would you tout him for something like the brown advisory if he was a well beat tame 3rd ?

[Kevloaf]

The King Pimm had a quote from somewhere I believe.

The only thing I've speculation about that being most likely....

[The King Pimm]

Oh shit now the heats on me

The quote was from an update from Declan Phelan who is connected to Robcour who own Pencilfulloflead. It was more speculative than a firm commitment about his festival target but the 4 miler on soft being the preferred option for Pencilfulloflead if they did decide to send him over but this was before Easywork died which means Gordon.

Personally I’ve backed Pencilfulloflead for both the RSA (16’s) and NHC (25’s) before he races today. Given he’s running over 2.4f today it may prove to be a dull bet but he’s a horse who looks progressive and has loads of power & stamina and will shorten again today if he wins. Apparently heavy going at Limerick is some of the toughest conditions a horse can race in so 2.4f today may equate to more of a stamina test than 3 mile plus on good to soft elsewhere so that’s my thinking.

[Eggs]

Oh shit now the heats on me

The quote was from an update from Declan Phelan who is connected to Robcour who own Pencilfulloflead. It was more speculative than a firm commitment about his festival target but the 4 miler on soft being the preferred option for Pencilfulloflead if they did decide to send him over but this was before Easywork died which means Gordon.

Personally I’ve backed Pencilfulloflead for both the RSA (16’s) and NHC (25’s) before he races today. Given he’s running over 2.4f today it may prove to be a dull bet but he’s a horse who looks progressive and has loads of power & stamina and will shorten again today if he wins. Apparently heavy going at Limerick is some of the toughest conditions a horse can race in so 2.4f today may equate to more of a stamina test than 3 mile plus on good to soft elsewhere so that’s my thinking.

....Sky offer 33-1 Pencilfuloflead to win today & a/r at the Festival.

[Lobos]

Fully expecting Darver Star to put his name firmly back in the Arkle picture today. 2 miles around Leopardstown on decent going will really suit him. His 2 mile Champion Hurdle pace may be too much for Felix and co at the back end of the race. Win today and his odds will plummet.

[Lobos]

I'm thinking The Big Breakaway might run himself into the 4 miler here. Will be interesting what Tizzard says after the race