Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Kevloaf]

You see PFN as a negative? I have him as a positive for staying chasers

No, not at all, he's fantastico.

I just always worry if a horse disappoints at any stage they end up hunting the other pots away from that one week in March.


I have already backed him which I should have said, so I'm not adding any more on him..... that's the main reason.

Eh?? He's known for his staying chasers and more importantly has the trophy cabinet to back it up.

ND can still be boosted with Hills to 27/1 for the RSA

As above, I already have him backed at 33/1

I just meant I don't want to go in again 'any race' because I wouldn't be convinced Paul will send him to Cheltenham regardless.

He probably will, but Nicholls likes winning big races everywhere.




I know I post a lot, but I know I've said more than once that Nicholls is da bees knees

[charlie]

No, not at all, he's fantastico.

I just always worry if a horse disappoints at any stage they end up hunting the other pots away from that one week in March.

I have already backed him which I should have said, so I'm not adding any more on him..... that's the main reason.

Ah I see, makes sense

[Altior]

Anyone see Next Destination priced up for the Marsh anywhere?

[charlie]

Anyone see Next Destination priced up for the Marsh anywhere?

No but then I'd be close to certain he is a 3m+ horse

[Istabraq]

Anyone see Next Destination priced up for the Marsh anywhere?

You see him as having the pace to go Marsh pace Altior ?

[Altior]

You see him as having the pace to go Marsh pace Altior ?

Not necessarily Ista, more wondering out of interest what he'd be priced up as.

It's also partly me trying to find any sort of an angle for the Marsh. Envoi seems to have everyone spooked, and the RSA looks much deeper.

[Istabraq]

Not necessarily Ista, more wondering out of interest what he'd be priced up as.

It's also partly me trying to find any sort of an angle for the Marsh. Envoi seems to have everyone spooked, and the RSA looks much deeper.

Yeah understood, well worth looking at value in that Marsh market, I’m convinced Envoi Allen will scare plenty off and there could easily be less than 8...

[Kevloaf]

Not necessarily Ista, more wondering out of interest what he'd be priced up as.

It's also partly me trying to find any sort of an angle for the Marsh. Envoi seems to have everyone spooked, and the RSA looks much deeper.

Always worth looking for angles

I don't think Nicholls is likely to bring him back in trip though in this instance.

[Altior]

Yeah especially given how he's looked over further and with him being off so long it is likely they'll stick with the if it ain't broke don't fix it route, but if he were a tasty price I think I would back him over shorter at this stage.

I've also bit the bullet on Energumene for the Marsh via Hills boosted in the hope Klassical Dream, Elixir Dainay et al in the Arkle forces Mullins hand to the Marsh for Energumene. Backed him far too late but willing to take the poorer price now because I feel if I didn't do so now I'd only do it closer to March at a worse price. Still think he may be an Arkle horse mind, but the any race market isn't tasty enough any more.

[Pendil]

Interesting horse for me today in Newbury's novice chase was One for the Team. He hasn't done his handicap any good by finishing well against Next Destination. I cant see the handicapper having any option but to give him an OR of circa147, but that's what you have to take if you run your horse in a G2. He was also finishing well when u/r at the last behind Kalooki in his first run over fences.

He has now (I think) qualified for the NH chase. Checked prices with B365 and Next Destination is quoted @ 12/1, not that I think he will go there and OFTT is 33/1. Too high in the handicap not good enough for RSA, it could be an aim. .75pts ew @ 33/1

[charlie]

So the two RSA market movers today are obviously Monkfish (now as short as 3/1) and Next Destination (now as short at 10/1, but still 20/1 with Hills).

Anyone already on Monkfish must have been absolutely delighted with today. He did everything easily and looked a complete natural over fences. He won so easily the calibre of what he beat doesn't come into it for me, and as someone who is not on I wish I was, but never will be because he's priced up as the real deal, but not proved it yet. He is very, very exciting.

For those not on either, the horse to take out of today from an ante post and value perspective is IMO without question, Next Destination.

Next Destination was 10/1 fav having not jumped a fence in public before being ruled out in January 2019, which tells us he was very well fancied.

He's clearly had his issues, moved to Paul Nicholls and ran what Paul called an 'awesome' seasonal appearance run behind Roksana at Wetherby. To me it was a superb reappearance run after 920 days off, but what he did today was much closer to awesome, IMO of course. If ever there was a horse that should 'bounce' then it was Next Destination today. 27 days ago he ran over 3m after 920 days off, then puts in a near flawless round of jumping on his chase debut on ground less that ideal, and wins a Grade 2 with enough in hand to think there is upwards trajectory.

I thought it was serious performance disguised on a busy day of racing as just a good performance, which is so important in terms of finding value, and the price discrepancy between bookmakers kind of suggest they are not sure either! It was clear for all to see that turning in he was getting tired and his Wetherby exploits were catching up with him, but HC knew exactly how to handle him, and class prevailed.

I think he is a proper RSA contender, and cannot see PN having a better horse to aim at this race than Next Destination.

When his name first came up everyone was naturally very reserved pre-Wetherby and even post Wetherby we still didn't know if he was fit, well and would take to chasing. For me, he's answered those questions today.

He was incredibly well fancied for the RSA on here the year he got injured, and he's 9 next year. We've seen 50+ Grade 1 chase winners nine years or older over 3m or more at Cheltenham over the years, and if Paul can keep ND fit and well, and steadily improve him, I think 22/1 EW is excellent ante post value bet.

Cue the news on Monday that ND has been ruled out of the season

[Eggs]

....the one I took out of today, I’ve popped in the handicapper thread behind the ‘Diary Wall’. I accept I’m useless but I would be interested in any thoughts.

[Quevega]

So the two RSA market movers today are obviously Monkfish (now as short as 3/1) and Next Destination (now as short at 10/1, but still 20/1 with Hills).

Anyone already on Monkfish must have been absolutely delighted with today. He did everything easily and looked a complete natural over fences. He won so easily the calibre of what he beat doesn't come into it for me, and as someone who is not on I wish I was, but never will be because he's priced up as the real deal, but not proved it yet. He is very, very exciting.

For those not on either, the horse to take out of today from an ante post and value perspective is IMO without question, Next Destination.

Next Destination was 10/1 fav having not jumped a fence in public before being ruled out in January 2019, which tells us he was very well fancied.

He's clearly had his issues, moved to Paul Nicholls and ran what Paul called an 'awesome' seasonal appearance run behind Roksana at Wetherby. To me it was a superb reappearance run after 920 days off, but what he did today was much closer to awesome, IMO of course. If ever there was a horse that should 'bounce' then it was Next Destination today. 27 days ago he ran over 3m after 920 days off, then puts in a near flawless round of jumping on his chase debut on ground less that ideal, and wins a Grade 2 with enough in hand to think there is upwards trajectory.

I thought it was serious performance disguised on a bust day of racing as just a good performance, which is so important in terms of finding value, and the price discrepancy between bookmakers kind of suggest they are not sure either! It was clear for all to see that turning in he was getting tired and his Wetherby exploits were catching up with him, but HC knew exactly how to handle him, and class prevailed.

I think he is a proper RSA contender, and cannot see PN having a better horse to aim at this race than Next Destination.

When his name first came up everyone was naturally very reserved pre-Wetherby and even post Wetherby we still didn't know if he was fit, well and would take to chasing. For me, he's answered those questions today.

He was incredibly well fancied for the RSA on here the year he got injured, and he's 9 next year. We've seen 50+ Grade 1 chase winners nine years or older at Cheltenham over the years and if Paul can keep ND fit and well, and steadily improve him, I think 22/1 EW is excellent ante post value bet.

Cue the news on Monday that ND has been ruled out of the season

No 9 yr old has won the race since 1992 - Minnehoma.

However, this lad has a chance.
Cos he's not really 9 , and after the lay off he could have easily come back and not been as good as when we last saw him.
But he looks like he likes what he does.

His jumping style has positives and negatives, he lands running and his front end dives to the ground, like a good hurdler. But he may well end up dragging his arse through one or two if he's not careful.

I liked him enough to have 1pt on at 22-1 WH.

[Topofthegame2021]

The one I took out of today... I think it’s already been mentioned so apologies to anyone who I’m not crediting... but ontheropes. Finished behind Monkfish and seemed to still be on the bridle, looked good. Not sure where he’s going though.

on a separate note - does anyone know why Next Destination was moved from WPM to PN?

[Lobos]

Watched Monkfish back again. He was even more impressive the second time around. What a beast he is. Didn't touch a twig. God knows how he ever won an Albert over hurdles. He is every inch a staying chaser. Probably the best Novice chaser staying debut I've seen in many years. The further he went the better he looked. He won with his head in his chest from a decent field. It will take a very good one to beat him. Wonderful performance.