Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[The King Pimm]

Hugely dangerous having a grand on and banking on one horse but you have got massive balls. Hats off to you. I would have shit myself ! Good luck again next year because I know you have rolled a nice chunk of that profit up on him again !

I love your honesty Lobos I would have been the same, all in on one horse all festival!! I thought Envoi was beat turning the bend in the Ballymore, I thought The Big Getaway wasn’t for catching. Credit to him he found his gears when he needed too. I’m not sure he’s nailed on for the Marsh yet. I think there will some some significant improvement to come from a few maturing novice chasers. The big Getaway being one

[Lobos]

I love your honesty Lobos I would have been the same, all in on one horse all festival!! I thought Envoi was beat turning the bend in the Ballymore, I thought The Big Getaway wasn’t for catching. Credit to him he found his gears when he needed too. I’m not sure he’s nailed on for the Marsh yet. I think there will some some significant improvement to come from a few maturing novice chasers. The big Getaway being one

Agree. TBG was the only one to really put it up to Envoi who is a superstar. He is a massive player in what looks to be the RSA . It'll be interesting if Mullins keeps him and Monkfish apart. Still have an inkling that Monkfish may go Stayers or even NHC. We'll see.

[Kevloaf]

I wonder if The Big Getaway will be the Patrick Mullins / Willie Mullins horse for the NH Chase.

Found a few clips of Patrick really talking him up and saying that he's such a big horse (biggest in the yard) and that he's just a galloper. Patrick said he wanted him in the Albert Bartlett last year.

It's obvious he's a chasing type given his size and with the Albert Bartlett winner Monkfish in the yard, there is an easy alternative in the RSA for Paul Townend to want to be on?


Given it is July this isn't time to bet on it, but he's 33/1 and it's certainly crept onto my radar.

Aione and Monkfish are both Ricci horses in the betting, a perfectly reasonable case was made that Aione could end up here which I don't dispute. The others in the oddschecker list at the moment are Energumene, Next Destination, Janidil, Five O'Clock and Lord Royal. Not saying any of them can't be the one either, but The Big Getaway has better form than any of them so far on his 3rd in the Ballymore (excluding Monkfish who it's pretty obvious will be aimed at the RSA)

[ComplyOrDie]

I wonder if The Big Getaway will be the Patrick Mullins / Willie Mullins horse for the NH Chase.

Found a few clips of Patrick really talking him up and saying that he's such a big horse (biggest in the yard) and that he's just a galloper. Patrick said he wanted him in the Albert Bartlett last year.

It's obvious he's a chasing type given his size and with the Albert Bartlett winner Monkfish in the yard, there is an easy alternative in the RSA for Paul Townend to want to be on?


Given it is July this isn't time to bet on it, but he's 33/1 and it's certainly crept onto my radar.

Aione and Monkfish are both Ricci horses in the betting, a perfectly reasonable case was made that Aione could end up here which I don't dispute. The others in the oddschecker list at the moment are Energumene, Next Destination, Janidil and Lord Royal. Not saying any of them can't be the one either, but The Big Getaway has better form than any of them so far on his 3rd in the Ballymore (excluding Monkfish who it's pretty obvious will be aimed at the RSA)

Don't say that Kev, that would hurt if he ended up there

Not sure how many Ballymore 3rd's have gone on to run in the NH Chase? I'd imagine an extremely small amount, if any at all, but this is Willie, he does things others don't think of.

[Kevloaf]

Don't say that Kev, that would hurt if he ended up there

Not sure how many Ballymore 3rd's have gone on to run in the NH Chase? I'd imagine an extremely small amount, if any at all, but this is Willie, he does things others don't think of.

Ummm.... probably is a small amount, but Rathvinden is one

RSA is more likely, but I'd want the other race covered personally!

[ComplyOrDie]

Ummm.... probably is a small amount, but Rathvinden is one

RSA is more likely, but I'd want the other race covered personally!

Ah yeah, 4 years later though

I feel like I'm going to be talked into backing him for the NH Chase, because I really like him, and the 12/1 'any race' is not a price I think is value at all.

[Kevloaf]

Ah yeah, 4 years later though

I feel like I'm going to be talked into backing him for the NH Chase, because I really like him, and the 12/1 'any race' is not a price I think is value at all.

He's 25/1 with 365, so it's not the riskiest cover bet you'll have to make?

If he's going to end up a player in the RSA, he's certain to also shorten for the NH chase, and you can cash out if the target becomes clear?



I might back him for both, not done anything yet...I agree I wouldn't want the 12/1 as the alternative.

[The King Pimm]

The Big Getaway won’t be running in the NH, I think he’ll be in the Marsh for a re match with EA unless Monkfish or Aione get injured and he goes RSA. The NH is a B list race and the fields are getting weaker by the year but I do think Latest Exhibition may head to it. It’s a more realistic race of winning than the hot looking RSA. Paul Nolan nearly won it with Discorama and has a better horse in Latest Exhibition. Not the best priced at present but I think he’s a genuine contender compared to others.

[Kevloaf]

The Big Getaway won’t be running in the NH, I think he’ll be in the Marsh for a re match with EA unless Monkfish or Aione get injured and he goes RSA. The NH is a B list race and the fields are getting weaker by the year but I do think Latest Exhibition may head to it. It’s a more realistic race of winning than the hot looking RSA. Paul Nolan nearly won it with Discorama and has a better horse in Latest Exhibition. Not the best priced at present but I think he’s a genuine contender compared to others.

The Big Getaway doesn't look like he wants a drop in trip to me, but you never know


Latest Exhibition will be interesting wherever he ends up, very likeable. I don't think he's lacking pace either but he clearly stays well enough to not need to come down in trip. Will be routing for him!

[nortonscoin200]

I wonder if The Big Getaway will be the Patrick Mullins / Willie Mullins horse for the NH Chase.

Found a few clips of Patrick really talking him up and saying that he's such a big horse (biggest in the yard) and that he's just a galloper. Patrick said he wanted him in the Albert Bartlett last year.

It's obvious he's a chasing type given his size and with the Albert Bartlett winner Monkfish in the yard, there is an easy alternative in the RSA for Paul Townend to want to be on?


Given it is July this isn't time to bet on it, but he's 33/1 and it's certainly crept onto my radar.

Aione and Monkfish are both Ricci horses in the betting, a perfectly reasonable case was made that Aione could end up here which I don't dispute. The others in the oddschecker list at the moment are Energumene, Next Destination, Janidil and Lord Royal. Not saying any of them can't be the one either, but The Big Getaway has better form than any of them so far on his 3rd in the Ballymore (excluding Monkfish who it's pretty obvious will be aimed at the RSA)

Interesting proposition and could well happen. They'll obviously start him off over shorter trips and the NH Chase could well come into the equation if he doesn't look as though he's got the speed to trouble the best in the Marsh/RSA. He'd obviously be a big player.

Wouldn't surprise me if none of the top 10 market leaders quoted on Oddschecker for the NH Chase turn up. It's a classic example of Saxon Warrior's recent post showing how the early ante-post markets often gets it completely wrong for Festival races. I think there's more punter value to be had in this race than any other at the Festival based on current odds.

You could take a speculative plunge on half a dozen long shots at each way prices and have a decent chance of coming out with a healthy profit.

Perhaps the Forum should pick a NH Chase squad called "Out In The Long Grass" Here are some possible contenders:

The Big Getaway 25-1
Aione 33-1 (I realise many already on board this one)
The Bosses Oscar 33-1
Commander of Fleet 33-1
Janidil 33-1 *
Galvin 33-1 *
Cobblers Way 40-1
Sempo 50-1

*I should declare an interest - already backed these two.

Just like to take slight issue with Kev over The Big Getaway having the best form for this race of Willie's horses. Janidil's 11-length 5th in a very strong AB is surely comparable form with the NH Chase in mind.

Quiz question: Name the horse who finished 5th in the 2019 AB and won at this year's Festival.

[Cooldaddy]

I am buildng my Cheltenham AP book around Shishkin for the Arkle. Really think the horse is the real deal and providing it jumps has pounds in hand. Does anybody think there is a danger it will go Marsh?

[Vautour]

Hugely dangerous having a grand on and banking on one horse but you have got massive balls. Hats off to you. I would have shit myself ! Good luck again next year because I know you have rolled a nice chunk of that profit up on him again !

It very much depends on what your appetite for risk is and if the potential rewards are worth the outlay when there is a high chance of zero return. Envoy seems similar to me in that hes happy to take a high risk, high reward approach by basing Cheltenham around a couple of horses. I had seven winners and nine seconds at this years festival but ended up with zero as my strategy is based around multiples. However, I had Paisley Park running for me for £24k which is a position I would be delighted to take every year even if I end up with years where I get zero. Same happened two years ago where Cause of Causes would have won me £32k and Apples Jade £20k rolling off various multiples but neither won. 2019 I won £8k.

2021 For me will hang on Shiskin and Envoi and whilst this is risky having so much staked on them already, it is educated risk. A 26.5/1 double currently seems like a gift to me, obviously barring any injuries, and well worth the risk that either of them doesnt take to fences.

[Spectre]

I am buildng my Cheltenham AP book around Shishkin for the Arkle. Really think the horse is the real deal and providing it jumps has pounds in hand. Does anybody think there is a danger it will go Marsh?

I think there's little chance of him going to the Marsh unless he get's turned over a couple of times over 2 miles. If he does you'd be offloading him anyway.

[Lobos]

Think TBG 25/1 with cash out is a very decent bet. Personally think he'll end up in RSA and Mullins has already said he may have to take on Envoi again in that race so that's as close as him giving away a target this early as you'll ever get ! He's 12/1 TWAR which is too short for me but I think I've covered him in a bet off the Sky RAB page.

[Lobos]

It very much depends on what your appetite for risk is and if the potential rewards are worth the outlay when there is a high chance of zero return. Envoy seems similar to me in that hes happy to take a high risk, high reward approach by basing Cheltenham around a couple of horses. I had seven winners and nine seconds at this years festival but ended up with zero as my strategy is based around multiples. However, I had Paisley Park running for me for £24k which is a position I would be delighted to take every year even if I end up with years where I get zero. Same happened two years ago where Cause of Causes would have won me £32k and Apples Jade £20k rolling off various multiples but neither won. 2019 I won £8k.

2021 For me will hang on Shiskin and Envoi and whilst this is risky having so much staked on them already, it is educated risk. A 26.5/1 double currently seems like a gift to me, obviously barring any injuries, and well worth the risk that either of them doesnt take to fences.

You are a very brave man. I've been there before.