Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[archie]

Far, far more likely that Shishkin doesn't take to fences but there is no logical reason why either's price should contract before October.

[Lobos]

Far, far more likely that Shishkin doesn't take to fences but there is no logical reason why either's price should contract before October.

No one knows that. Both are PTP winners. Envoi may be the more fluent hurdler but that means jack shit when it comes to going over the big ones. Envoi could just as easily jump like a skunk and return to hurdles. We just don't know.

[archie]

They could both jump like skunks and make 4/1 look even more skinny. It's why a fudge factor includes moving to a new discipline and the injury factor for novice chasers.

[Lobos]

They could both jump like skunks and make 4/1 look even more skinny. It's why a fudge factor includes moving to a new discipline and the injury factor for novice chasers.

I'm not disagreeing at all that 4/1 is skinny for either of them, it's a disgrace really but that's us punters for you. They should be 4/1 to get there but it is what it is. My point was simply none of us know at this stage who, of the two, will turn out to be the better jumper of fences.

[EnvoyAllen]

But surely guys it’s not the actual figure (the 4 in the 4/1) but the % that price might reduce to? If both horses (and it’s possible, with both trainers referring to each as special) have very good starts to their novice campaigns unbeaten, both horses say for example go off evens money - a shortening of 400%. But if you can get a 20/1 ante post shot now down to 5/1 come the day,we’d all be excited??? And yet, the mark up you’re getting 8 months in advance is still the same - 400%?? It’s not just about the price, it’s about the % extra you feel you might get in advance. And I think that’s often well overlooked.

[Lobos]

But surely guys it’s not the actual figure (the 4 in the 4/1) but the % that price might reduce to? If both horses (and it’s possible, with both trainers referring to each as special) have very good starts to their novice campaigns unbeaten, both horses say for example go off evens money - a shortening of 400%. But if you can get a 20/1 ante post shot now down to 5/1 come the day,we’d all be excited??? And yet, the mark up you’re getting 8 months in advance is still the same - 400%?? It’s not just about the price, it’s about the % extra you feel you might get in advance. And I think that’s often well overlooked.

That's far too clever for me in a Friday night ! Lol !

[EnvoyAllen]

That's far too clever for me in a Friday night ! Lol !

I just feel Mr Lobos that it’s very easy to look at a short single price and think it’s crazy to take it 8 months in advance of the event. But that price might well be 4 times greater than the horse might go off on the day. And with all kinds of factors to take in, if both these horses go their preferred routes,and have good starts to their seasons, it’s highly conceivable they’ll go off evens at least.

It’s about the perceived percentage gains. Bookmakers make their millions by using analysts to gain the percentages in their favour, I’m always surprised more punters don’t go down a more methodical route. And I am of the belief both of these horses might prove,in 8 months time, that their ante post price on the 11th July 2020 were actually steals.

[EnvoyAllen]

I took 6/4 in the Summer of 2011 that Usain Bolt to win the 100m at the London Olympics a year later. My work colleagues called me crazy for taking a short price a year in advance.

But why, I wondered? He was surely, if fit, going to go off odds on the day?

1/6 was his winning world record time.

Sometimes a short price can still be an exceptionally good price. But it’s knowing when. That’s the difficult bit!

[Lobos]

I took 6/4 in the Summer of 2011 that Usain Bolt to win the 100m at the London Olympics a year later. My work colleagues called me crazy for taking a short price a year in advance.

But why, I wondered? He was surely, if fit, going to go off odds on the day?

1/6 was his winning world record time.

Sometimes a short price can still be an exceptionally good price. But it’s knowing when. That’s the difficult bit!

The 'if fit' bit is the 'unknown' and the reason you got 6/4 but no debating it was a fabulous AP gamble.

[Spectre]

The ‘if fit’ bit is definitely relevant if it’s the only bet you have. When the risk is spread across multiple horses the risk to me is perfectly acceptable.

And As I’ve said several times, there is also the option of cash out and laying back for a profit on Betfair. With all four of Easysland, Epatante, Envoi Allen, and Shishkin you could have already locked in a profit and left some running if you so wished. Not all horses need to be still running for you in March.

[EnvoyAllen]

The ‘if fit’ bit is definitely relevant if it’s the only bet you have. When the risk is spread across multiple horses the risk to me is perfectly acceptable.

And As I’ve said several times, there is also the option of cash out and laying back for a profit on Betfair. With all four of Easysland, Epatante, Envoi Allen, and Shishkin you could have already locked in a profit and left some running if you so wished. Not all horses need to be still running for you in March.

Exactly Spectre. And that’s the way I always look at it. I won’t lie here - I had 100 points on Envoi Allen to win the Ballymore this year, taking the unbelievably generous odds of 10/1 in early October. Two reasons - firstly (and obviously) I genuinely believed the Ballymore was his preferred route and that he’d win the race, but secondly, and I feel this is perhaps just as important, if he ends up winning his maiden (which he did comfortably), he’ll get clipped to half those 10/1 odds. But the bookies went further and went 5/2 after his maiden win. So 4 months in advance of Cheltenham, I had already made a healthy cash out profit.
It’s just about being clear about the horses that are well priced in advance and you can be as certain as you can that they’ll shorten through the winter.

Al Boum Photo is a classic example. He’s 5/1 generally at the moment. He’s very likely to run just 1 race on New Year’s Day as his prep before the Gold Cup. He’s more than likely to win that, and then he go’s 3/1. You know he’s likely to go 3/1 before you take the 5/1, so the 5/1 though months in advance, is a genuinely generous price.

But of course, it’s just my opinion. Nothing more.

[archie]

October is one thing because he's in full training and 10/1 was generous and a prime candidate for serious cutting after his maiden. July and 4/1 is a completely different equation.

As for ABP, unless his main competitors fall by the wayside he'll still be 5/1 in December. Why would you tie up money and risk a training accident in the intervening 5 months?

That said, of course you're entitled to your opinion and to bet as you wish.

[Kevloaf]

Exactly Spectre. And that’s the way I always look at it. I won’t lie here - I had 100 points on Envoi Allen to win the Ballymore this year, taking the unbelievably generous odds of 10/1 in early October. Two reasons - firstly (and obviously) I genuinely believed the Ballymore was his preferred route and that he’d win the race, but secondly, and I feel this is perhaps just as important, if he ends up winning his maiden (which he did comfortably), he’ll get clipped to half those 10/1 odds. But the bookies went further and went 5/2 after his maiden win. So 4 months in advance of Cheltenham, I had already made a healthy cash out profit.
It’s just about being clear about the horses that are well priced in advance and you can be as certain as you can that they’ll shorten through the winter.

Al Boum Photo is a classic example. He’s 5/1 generally at the moment. He’s very likely to run just 1 race on New Year’s Day as his prep before the Gold Cup. He’s more than likely to win that, and then he go’s 3/1. You know he’s likely to go 3/1 before you take the 5/1, so the 5/1 though months in advance, is a genuinely generous price.

But of course, it’s just my opinion. Nothing more.

If you had 100 times your normal stake in October ante post, are you sure that what you're classing as 1 point is your normal stake?



For example, if £10 is 1 point, you put £1000 on ante post on one selection?

[EnvoyAllen]

If you had 100 times your normal stake in October ante post, are you sure that what you're classing as 1 point is your normal stake?



For example, if £10 is 1 point, you put £1000 on ante post on one selection?

Envoi Allen is the only horse I was interested in, is all I would suggest. I had an unbelievably poor Cheltenham with my selections in 27 races, but the outlay and focus on 1 horse (I kept pumping on after my initial 100 point outlay) meant I enjoyed the best Cheltenham I’m ever likely to. Though I’d like to do even better next year ��

[Lobos]

Envoi Allen is the only horse I was interested in, is all I would suggest. I had an unbelievably poor Cheltenham with my selections in 27 races, but the outlay and focus on 1 horse (I kept pumping on after my initial 100 point outlay) meant I enjoyed the best Cheltenham I’m ever likely to. Though I’d like to do even better next year ��

Hugely dangerous having a grand on and banking on one horse but you have got massive balls. Hats off to you. I would have shit myself ! Good luck again next year because I know you have rolled a nice chunk of that profit up on him again !