Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Kevloaf]

I agree the Marsh looks the perfect trip for him at this stage of his career - so why go further?

And if it all goes to plan a tilt at the 2022 Gold Cup - when EA will be aged eight - must surely be the plan unless he proves in the meantime there's no way he would get the trip.

With that in mind I've had a 2.5pt nibble at Skybet's special double: 40-1 Envoi Allen to win any novice chase at next year's festival and the Gold Cup in 2022.

Got a feeling this bet's already been discussed previously but it strikes me as pretty decent value.

Ok, it's a long wait to get paid out (and I'm not getting any younger) .

But I'd love to have a financial reason as well as the pure joy of cheering home Envoi Allen as he achieves immortality by becoming the first horse to win the Champion Bumper, A Festival novice hurdle, novice chase and Gold Cup.

If he wins at the Festival next year what price will he be for the Gold Cup this time next year - my guess is 4-1 tops.

By then all this year's Gold Cup field will be at least ten - apart from Delta Work and Real Steel. Champ will also be ten and no ten-year-old has won the Gold Cup since Cool Dawn in 1998.

So - gazing into the crystal ball - Envoi Allen's main rivals could be Minella Indo (9 by then), Allaho (8) and whatever young kids on the block emerge between now and March 2022.

His 'main rivals' are likely to be the RSA contenders from this season aren't they? The likes of Monkfish, Fury Road, The Big Whatevers etc...

If [we] are right and he's the best horse of his class/generation (novice chasers) then he actually could be the one to beat by the time we get there.

I must admit I did consider that price for very similar reasons. Without a doubt won't be the best value bet I place by a long way but sometimes you can afford to want to flirt with the storylines somewhat and whether it was technically value or not, waiting on Envoi Allen to win a Gold Cup, with a 40/1 voucher to boast about, when if he did he'd be an immortal of the sport, is quite appealing.




I'm allowed 25 pence on my account
£18.75 on another though, I think I'm right in saying if I tried again next week I'd be able to get more on?

[The King Pimm]

I’ve just been looking through my Ante Post bets and didn’t realise how many Skybet RABs and rollover trebles rely on Envoi turning up and doing the business in the Marsh. I need to ease up on using him as banker material especially if he goes to the RSA, I must have him as a potential winning leg of the Marsh in 12 AP bets so far .....I didn’t realise how many, I really hope he doesn’t do a Malone Road or Champagne Classic on me!!

[Marty973]

I agree the Marsh looks the perfect trip for him at this stage of his career - so why go further?

And if it all goes to plan a tilt at the 2022 Gold Cup - when EA will be aged eight - must surely be the plan unless he proves in the meantime there's no way he would get the trip.

With that in mind I've had a 2.5pt nibble at Skybet's special double: 40-1 Envoi Allen to win any novice chase at next year's festival and the Gold Cup in 2022.

Got a feeling this bet's already been discussed previously but it strikes me as pretty decent value.

Ok, it's a long wait to get paid out (and I'm not getting any younger) .

But I'd love to have a financial reason as well as the pure joy of cheering home Envoi Allen as he achieves immortality by becoming the first horse to win the Champion Bumper, A Festival novice hurdle, novice chase and Gold Cup.

If he wins at the Festival next year what price will he be for the Gold Cup this time next year - my guess is 4-1 tops.

By then all this year's Gold Cup field will be at least ten - apart from Delta Work and Real Steel. Champ will also be ten and no ten-year-old has won the Gold Cup since Cool Dawn in 1998.

So - gazing into the crystal ball - Envoi Allen's main rivals could be Minella Indo (9 by then), Allaho (8) and whatever young kids on the block emerge between now and March 2022.

I requested that one. Been nibbling at it ever since. Convinced he’d win the Marsh or the RSA, although I’d prefer him in the Marsh. Then like Kev says it would be nice to have 40/1 on a potential superstar to win a Gold Cup.

[EnvoyAllen]

[QUOTE=Kevloaf;167424]His 'main rivals' are likely to be the RSA contenders from this season aren't they? The likes of Monkfish, Fury Road, The Big Whatevers etc...

If [we] are right and he's the best horse of his class/generation (novice chasers) then he actually could be the one to beat by the time we get there.

Firstly guys, both yourselves are two of the people who analyze and write the best stuff here. So keep up your good analysis and thoughts! After ‘Norton’s suggested the 40/1 for the aforementioned bet, I couldn’t but help myself to a little treat of the same variety too. I’ve already written in detail about Envoi Allen, and his age come Gold Cups in 2022 & 2023 in his prime.

‘Norton’s is correct - should Envoi win his novice chase this year (discounting the Arkle) and win it as comfortably as he won his Ballymore, he’ll more than likely be nothing more than a 4/1 market leader for the Gold Cup in 2022. But working back from that, and which is key to the 40/1 potentially being value, is trying to assess his value for his novice chase, whichever route he go’s. If his career trajectory continues at the level his trainer believes it will, he’ll likely be best price evens for his novice chase at Cheltenham, more likely odds on. Suggesting that he’d win that (automatically bringing the 4/1 for the Gold cup in 2022 straight from the bookmakers into play). So even before he runs at Cheltenham next March, those 40/1 odds might not be any bigger than 10/1 tops. That’s what we try to assess when making these bets looking into the future.

[Eggs]

I agree the Marsh looks the perfect trip for him at this stage of his career - so why go further?

And if it all goes to plan a tilt at the 2022 Gold Cup - when EA will be aged eight - must surely be the plan unless he proves in the meantime there's no way he would get the trip.

With that in mind I've had a 2.5pt nibble at Skybet's special double: 40-1 Envoi Allen to win any novice chase at next year's festival and the Gold Cup in 2022.

Got a feeling this bet's already been discussed previously but it strikes me as pretty decent value.

Ok, it's a long wait to get paid out (and I'm not getting any younger) .

But I'd love to have a financial reason as well as the pure joy of cheering home Envoi Allen as he achieves immortality by becoming the first horse to win the Champion Bumper, A Festival novice hurdle, novice chase and Gold Cup.

If he wins at the Festival next year what price will he be for the Gold Cup this time next year - my guess is 4-1 tops.

By then all this year's Gold Cup field will be at least ten - apart from Delta Work and Real Steel. Champ will also be ten and no ten-year-old has won the Gold Cup since Cool Dawn in 1998.

So - gazing into the crystal ball - Envoi Allen's main rivals could be Minella Indo (9 by then), Allaho (8) and whatever young kids on the block emerge between now and March 2022.

....the anomaly with that Sky Special Double, is that they are offering the same price (40-1) in their NH RaB list for Envoi to specifically win the Marsh and the following years GC.

The ‘any novice Chase’ option @ 40-1 is clearly the way to go if anybody is interested.

[Lobos]

Has everyone forgotten ABP as a 'contender' in 2022? If he wins again next year as I expect him to then he'll only be 10 v Envoi and co and with very little mileage on the clock. Could be going for a 4 timer !

[nortonscoin200]

His 'main rivals' are likely to be the RSA contenders from this season aren't they? The likes of Monkfish, Fury Road, The Big Whatevers etc...

If [we] are right and he's the best horse of his class/generation (novice chasers) then he actually could be the one to beat by the time we get there.

I must admit I did consider that price for very similar reasons. Without a doubt won't be the best value bet I place by a long way but sometimes you can afford to want to flirt with the storylines somewhat and whether it was technically value or not, waiting on Envoi Allen to win a Gold Cup, with a 40/1 voucher to boast about, when if he did he'd be an immortal of the sport, is quite appealing.




I'm allowed 25 pence on my account
£18.75 on another though, I think I'm right in saying if I tried again next week I'd be able to get more on?

I was allowed £18.75 max on Monday but when I tried again today they let me have £6.25 top up which is what I wanted on Monday.

After they refused my original bet I complained to customer services that this just wasn't cricket - and the darlings put me down for an extra free bet!!! Rock on Skybet!!!

[nortonscoin200]

[QUOTE=EnvoyAllen;167431]

His 'main rivals' are likely to be the RSA contenders from this season aren't they? The likes of Monkfish, Fury Road, The Big Whatevers etc...

If [we] are right and he's the best horse of his class/generation (novice chasers) then he actually could be the one to beat by the time we get there.

Firstly guys, both yourselves are two of the people who analyze and write the best stuff here. So keep up your good analysis and thoughts! After ‘Norton’s suggested the 40/1 for the aforementioned bet, I couldn’t but help myself to a little treat of the same variety too. I’ve already written in detail about Envoi Allen, and his age come Gold Cups in 2022 & 2023 in his prime.

‘Norton’s is correct - should Envoi win his novice chase this year (discounting the Arkle) and win it as comfortably as he won his Ballymore, he’ll more than likely be nothing more than a 4/1 market leader for the Gold Cup in 2022. But working back from that, and which is key to the 40/1 potentially being value, is trying to assess his value for his novice chase, whichever route he go’s. If his career trajectory continues at the level his trainer believes it will, he’ll likely be best price evens for his novice chase at Cheltenham, more likely odds on. Suggesting that he’d win that (automatically bringing the 4/1 for the Gold cup in 2022 straight from the bookmakers into play). So even before he runs at Cheltenham next March, those 40/1 odds might not be any bigger than 10/1 tops. That’s what we try to assess when making these bets looking into the future.

Cheers Envoy.

Your (almost) namesake will need to defy some pretty imposing stats to realise "The Invincible" double - I'm a gooners fan.

No winner of the Marsh has gone on to win the Gold Cup in the last decade - Sir Des Champs came closest when he was a 5l runner-up to Bob's Worth.

And no winner of the Ballymore has gone on to achieve Gold Cup glory since Davy Lad way back in 1977.

Help!!!

Taking up Kev's point about where his main rivals are likely to come from, here are a few more pointers:

The only Albert Bartlett winner to then triumph in the Gold Cup in the last 15 years is Bob's Worth.

The RSA has the best record for throwing up GC winners: Denman, Bob's Worth and Lord Windermere since 2008 - and Might Bite was close to becoming the fourth.

The last Arkle winner to land the GC was Alverton in 1979.

But runners-up in the Arkle have a very decent Gold Cup record: Kicking King (2007) and Sizing John (2017) both won the GC a year after they were runner up in the Arkle.

So rule out Fakir D'Oudairies at your peril next March - I'd be more surprised if he turned up in the Champion Chase than the GC but the Ryanair is probably most likely.

So although the majority of GC winners are already proven stayers it's not always the case. Al Boum Photo was completing a 3m chase for the first time the day he won his first GC - after falling two out when beaten in the previous year's RSA and then famously running out before the last at Punchestown six weeks later when set to win.

And Envoi has looked a bit special every since his public debut in a maiden ptp over 2m 4f at Ballinaboola 12 days before his (real) fourth birthday.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2HB0Aa7-ruw

A performance to warm the cockles of your heart - what can possibly go wrong?

[Ray]

[QUOTE=nortonscoin200;167525]

Cheers Envoy.

Your (almost) namesake will need to defy some pretty imposing stats to realise "The Invincible" double - I'm a gooners fan.

No winner of the Marsh has gone on to win the Gold Cup in the last decade - Sir Des Champs came closest when he was a 5l runner-up to Bob's Worth.

And no winner of the Ballymore has gone on to achieve Gold Cup glory since Davy Lad way back in 1977.

Help!!!

Taking up Kev's point about where his main rivals are likely to come from, here are a few more pointers:

The only Albert Bartlett winner to then triumph in the Gold Cup in the last 15 years is Bob's Worth.

The RSA has the best record for throwing up GC winners: Denman, Bob's Worth and Lord Windermere since 2008 - and Might Bite was close to becoming the fourth.

The last Arkle winner to land the GC was Alverton in 1979.

But runners-up in the Arkle have a very decent Gold Cup record: Kicking King (2007) and Sizing John (2017) both won the GC a year after they were runner up in the Arkle.

So rule out Fakir D'Oudairies at your peril next March - I'd be more surprised if he turned up in the Champion Chase than the GC but the Ryanair is probably most likely.

So although the majority of GC winners are already proven stayers it's not always the case. Al Boum Photo was completing a 3m chase for the first time the day he won his first GC - after falling two out when beaten in the previous year's RSA and then famously running out before the last at Punchestown six weeks later when set to win.

And Envoi has looked a bit special every since his public debut in a maiden ptp over 2m 4f at Ballinaboola 12 days before his (real) fourth birthday.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2HB0Aa7-ruw

A performance to warm the cockles of your heart - what can possibly go wrong?

I think Lostintranslation coming from runner up in the marsh into the gold cup has done well though

[EnvoyAllen]

[QUOTE=nortonscoin200;167525]

Cheers Envoy.

Your (almost) namesake will need to defy some pretty imposing stats to realise "The Invincible" double - I'm a gooners fan.

No winner of the Marsh has gone on to win the Gold Cup in the last decade - Sir Des Champs came closest when he was a 5l runner-up to Bob's Worth.

And no winner of the Ballymore has gone on to achieve Gold Cup glory since Davy Lad way back in 1977.

Help!!!

Taking up Kev's point about where his main rivals are likely to come from, here are a few more pointers:

The only Albert Bartlett winner to then triumph in the Gold Cup in the last 15 years is Bob's Worth.

The RSA has the best record for throwing up GC winners: Denman, Bob's Worth and Lord Windermere since 2008 - and Might Bite was close to becoming the fourth.

The last Arkle winner to land the GC was Alverton in 1979.

But runners-up in the Arkle have a very decent Gold Cup record: Kicking King (2007) and Sizing John (2017) both won the GC a year after they were runner up in the Arkle.

So rule out Fakir D'Oudairies at your peril next March - I'd be more surprised if he turned up in the Champion Chase than the GC but the Ryanair is probably most likely.

So although the majority of GC winners are already proven stayers it's not always the case. Al Boum Photo was completing a 3m chase for the first time the day he won his first GC - after falling two out when beaten in the previous year's RSA and then famously running out before the last at Punchestown six weeks later when set to win.

And Envoi has looked a bit special every since his public debut in a maiden ptp over 2m 4f at Ballinaboola 12 days before his (real) fourth birthday.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2HB0Aa7-ruw

A performance to warm the cockles of your heart - what can possibly go wrong?

And no horse Mr Norton has gone off shorter than Envoi to win the Ballymore at 4/7.

As the saying go’s........there’s ‘lies,lies and damn statistics’ !!

And that’s where hope lies eternal.

[Lobos]

Norton, you are in the wrong job. Brilliant write up. Really enjoyed it and plenty of food for thought!

[nortonscoin200]

Haha, thanks Lobos. I’ve been gelded and put out to grass.

[JackieMoon33]

Although the forum is very active at present, I'm struggling to keep even remotely up to date with all the threads and I've been unable to compile more write ups. I've found time though for my next RSA candidate to go alongside The Big Getaway and Ask For Glory. Although I respect the form of the Albert Bartlett, those horses are short enough for me to leave alone, especially given the nature of the RSA and the fact that it's not always the best hurdler that wins the race. I've therefore happy with my alternative selections who I believe will significantly improve for fences and offer more value.

Five O'Clock - Willie Mullins - RSA
Sired by Cokoriko, who has had a slowish start to stallion duties, he is very much a chaser and a stayer at that. He had three starts in 2018 which showed more promise than substance but due to the way he's been campaigned, he was never going to be an early type and hurdles would only be a stepping stone for him.

After joining Willie Mullins and after a long break (537 days), he made his stable debut and was beaten over 2m 5f on heavy going. He followed that with a win over 2m before landing a Grade 3 over 2m 5f in February that set him up for a tilt at the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham. He was fancied by some on here and he ran a creditable race where he was a staying on seventh, beaten 4.75 lengths. Whilst it was a decent enough showing, he was slightly outpaced coming down the hill at the business end before getting going again in the home straight where he made up his ground. As the Martin Pipe is over 2m 4f, I'm not too concerned by the effort and it serves as course experience for the future.

His size and the way he raced last season all point towards staying trips over fences and he could be one to show significant improvement over larger obstacles. Although Ricci and Mullins have two staying chasers in his ranks already (Monkfish and Aione), I don't think he'll be able to avoid at least two of them treading a similar path as none of them look like they could step down to the Marsh trip.

20Feb20 Thurles (21Sft, RPR 143)
Five O'Clock is a horse I think a lot of. He wasn't impressive over 2m on the inside track at Limerick, he really wants a galloping track. He's an out-and-out 3m chaser down the line. We might look for races nearer home after this - Willie Mullins, trainer.

30Jan20 Limerick (16Sft/Hy, RPR 128)
Five O'Clock made hard work of it but this trip was way too short for him. He's an out-and-out stayer. He handles testing ground and he might go down the handicap route - Willie Mullins, trainer.

At 50/1 I have no doubt he'll shorten considerably during the season but he could be more than just a trading angle in the long run.

[Hardy Eustace]

Although the forum is very active at present, I'm struggling to keep even remotely up to date with all the threads and I've been unable to compile more write ups. I've found time though for my next RSA candidate to go alongside The Big Getaway and Ask For Glory. Although I respect the form of the Albert Bartlett, those horses are short enough for me to leave alone, especially given the nature of the RSA and the fact that it's not always the best hurdler that wins the race. I've therefore happy with my alternative selections who I believe will significantly improve for fences and offer more value.

Five O'Clock - Willie Mullins - RSA
Sired by Cokoriko, who has had a slowish start to stallion duties, he is very much a chaser and a stayer at that. He had three starts in 2018 which showed more promise than substance but due to the way he's been campaigned, he was never going to be an early type and hurdles would only be a stepping stone for him.

After joining Willie Mullins and after a long break (537 days), he made his stable debut and was beaten over 2m 5f on heavy going. He followed that with a win over 2m before landing a Grade 3 over 2m 5f in February that set him up for a tilt at the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham. He was fancied by some on here and he ran a creditable race where he was a staying on seventh, beaten 4.75 lengths. Whilst it was a decent enough showing, he was slightly outpaced coming down the hill at the business end before getting going again in the home straight where he made up his ground. As the Martin Pipe is over 2m 4f, I'm not too concerned by the effort and it serves as course experience for the future.

His size and the way he raced last season all point towards staying trips over fences and he could be one to show significant improvement over larger obstacles. Although Ricci and Mullins have two staying chasers in his ranks already (Monkfish and Aione), I don't think he'll be able to avoid at least two of them treading a similar path as none of them look like they could step down to the Marsh trip.

20Feb20 Thurles (21Sft, RPR 143)
Five O'Clock is a horse I think a lot of. He wasn't impressive over 2m on the inside track at Limerick, he really wants a galloping track. He's an out-and-out 3m chaser down the line. We might look for races nearer home after this - Willie Mullins, trainer.

30Jan20 Limerick (16Sft/Hy, RPR 128)
Five O'Clock made hard work of it but this trip was way too short for him. He's an out-and-out stayer. He handles testing ground and he might go down the handicap route - Willie Mullins, trainer.

At 50/1 I have no doubt he'll shorten considerably during the season but he could be more than just a trading angle in the long run.

Like this Jackie! I have a point on him already TWAR at almost 28/1 with hills. It was a taking run in the Martin Pipe, full of promise. Think he will be a big improver for fences and one I am really looking forward to.

[Saxon Warrior]

Five O'Clock - Willie Mullins - RSA
Sired by Cokoriko, who has had a slowish start to stallion duties, he is very much a chaser and a stayer at that. He had three starts in 2018 which showed more promise than substance but due to the way he's been campaigned, he was never going to be an early type and hurdles would only be a stepping stone for him.

At 50/1 I have no doubt he'll shorten considerably during the season but he could be more than just a trading angle in the long run.

JackieM,

Thinking along similar lines to you regarding staying chases.

Five O'Clock (Mullins) is one of two I have in mind for the National Hunt Chase, along with Run Wild Fred (Elliott).
It helps confidence when knowing the two top Irish Trainers have won the NHC 5 times in the last 8 years (plus 2 thirds in two of the other 3 races, with the only time they didnt place being the 4-finisher debacle that Le Breuil and Discorama slogged out the finish off, that led to the race changing).