Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[jono]

I do think the NHC would really suit him but I suspect they'll want to go RSA with their best Novice chaser.

Despite Native River running a stormer in it I'll now always assume Tizzard will go RSA over NHC no matter what the horse does.

Having picked out Elegant Escape for the NHC at 50/1 in his novice chase year, where everything pointed to him being best suited to it with each passing week...

Turning down Jamie Codd for the ride on Copperhead after he bolted up at Ascot.

The RSA is the grade 1, so fair enough to aim for the best race possible but he seems to take that blindly and completely ignore another option, to the detriment of his horses chances (imo)

[Run4Home]

Latest Exhibition was well and truly put in his place today by the winner. Hard to find any real excuses. Not coming from the PTP scene, and not being the biggest meant there was a chance he may not carry his hurdles form over fences. But I actually thought it was a better round of jumping in comparison to his chase debut. He didn't really put a foot wrong. Which would be a concern.

I don't personally buy into the (what was) the 4 miler talk now. I've never thought of him as a boat. He showed a fair amount of pace for a 3 mile hurdler last year and for me taking the 4 out of the AB is the one that could mix it best at a shorter trip. So I don't see the trip being the issue at all. Prior to the race I commented how he is so consistant and always bang there at the finish, which would lead me to write off this race to a degree, at least until we see him again. All credit to Pencilfulloflead but i'll be stunned if he is up there with the best of the Irish by the festival. It was the biggest distance he's been beaten by in his career to date (7L), previously it was a 3L defeat to Abacadabras over the minimum trip. the fact his challenge today petered out so tamely, makes me thing something must have been amiss, the ground perhaps being one. Otherwise, with no clear mistakes, he just isn't good enough.

He just struggled to get to terms with the pace of the race today, Cooper continuously had to niggle him even if so slightly at times to stay in touch and drive him into fences to hold a position.

Saying that I would give him the benefit of the doubt with the ground being as it was and reserve judgement fully until we see him again.

I just don’t think he’ll have the same level of improvement for a fence as the likes of Monkfish will have so it’ll be a difficult season

[jono]

Clearly talented but id much rather back Monkfish at a similar price, loved his attitude in the Albert Bartlett.

Completely agree. TBB has won 3 of his 4 races with ease so far but the one proper race he has so far contested, he picked up the pieces in 4th place and never layed a glove on the race. Clearly lots of ability and I do think it was a very nice chase debut at the track. Henderson will very rarely start a novice there. We've seen countless examples of it catching a horse out. So I was impressed. But there's no getting around his price is now short. Granted we stlll haven't seen Monkfish jump a fence yet but I'd back the grade 1 festival winner all day long whilst the prices are as they are.

[Ray]

I beleive tizzard will run Lair du vent in the nh chase, and i wouldnt see that as a bad bet at 66/1!

[Kevloaf]

I thought The Big Breakaway jumped too big at the majority of fences.

In better quality races, wasting energy by clearing fences too big will take its toll.


It looks amazing, but isn't the most efficent way to complete a chase IMO.



At the moment I just think he'll find one too good this year as a novice chaser, but he's a very talented looking horse obviously. Next time out I'll be watching to see how he jumps. I'm not sure he is so far clear of his rivals he can afford to jump so exuberantly when we get to Grade 1's at festivals....

[Outlaw]

Not that we need any reminders with Tizzard over the last few years sending numerous horses to the wrong race etc
Post race comments are pretty firm that he is going to treat him like a top horse and not one you would send to the NHC imo. (not that Native river wasn't)
Tizzard said: "I'm thrilled to bits with him, he travelled and jumped really well. Robbie [Power] has said he wouldn't mind dropping him back to two and a half [miles] just to sharpen him up and make him think on his feet a little bit. That's food for thought. It was just a lovely performance to come here first time out and jump like that."

The Colin Tizzard team captured this race with Thistlecrack in 2017 and The Big Breakaway looks another who could emerge as a future star.

"His jumping was foot perfect and it has been since day one," Tizzard added. "I can't fault him, he popped when he needed to and had a bit of scope when he was asked. For a first run over fences we couldn't ask for anymore.

"He makes me tingle, he's that special. He's got a huge future ahead of him."

[Quevega]

Completely agree. TBB has won 3 of his 4 races with ease so far but the one proper race he has so far contested, he picked up the pieces in 4th place and never layed a glove on the race. Clearly lots of ability and I do think it was a very nice chase debut at the track. Henderson will very rarely start a novice there. We've seen countless examples of it catching a horse out. So I was impressed. But there's no getting around his price is now short. Granted we stlll haven't seen Monkfish jump a fence yet but I'd back the grade 1 festival winner all day long whilst the prices are as they are.

The counter argument is where would Monkfish have finished in the Ballymore ?
Big Breakaway ran in the wrong novice hurdle as he's a big sleeping baby.

[Quevega]

Not that we need any reminders with Tizzard over the last few years sending numerous horses to the wrong race etc
Post race comments are pretty firm that he is going to treat him like a top horse and not one you would send to the NHC imo. (not that Native river wasn't)
Tizzard said: "I'm thrilled to bits with him, he travelled and jumped really well. Robbie [Power] has said he wouldn't mind dropping him back to two and a half [miles] just to sharpen him up and make him think on his feet a little bit. That's food for thought. It was just a lovely performance to come here first time out and jump like that."

The Colin Tizzard team captured this race with Thistlecrack in 2017 and The Big Breakaway looks another who could emerge as a future star.

"His jumping was foot perfect and it has been since day one," Tizzard added. "I can't fault him, he popped when he needed to and had a bit of scope when he was asked. For a first run over fences we couldn't ask for anymore.

"He makes me tingle, he's that special. He's got a huge future ahead of him."

Glad Robbie has said that, as the dipper would be a better option over christmas IMO, than Kempton.
He could do with livening up a bit.

[Quevega]

I thought The Big Breakaway jumped too big at the majority of fences.

In better quality races, wasting energy by clearing fences too big will take its toll.


It looks amazing, but isn't the most efficent way to complete a chase IMO.



At the moment I just think he'll find one too good this year as a novice chaser, but he's a very talented looking horse obviously. Next time out I'll be watching to see how he jumps. I'm not sure he is so far clear of his rivals he can afford to jump so exuberantly when we get to Grade 1's at festivals....

Depends if he's wasting energy though. He wasn't ballooning them.
If he has the size and scope and can jump that big and long (which is the important part) and it not take much out of him then he could be a serious horse.

But I take the point as generally most horses in the staying division need to be more economical.

[ComplyOrDie]

The counter argument is where would Monkfish have finished in the Ballymore ?
Big Breakaway ran in the wrong novice hurdle as he's a big sleeping baby.

Yeah, I think the same can be said of The Big Getaway but the yard had Monkfish for the Bartlett, and also the likely option, and my opinion, that TBG is quicker than Monkfish too.

I think the past two or three seasons, the 'boats' haven't won the RSA. They seem to have come from the 'quicker' races, like the Ballymore (Champ), Coral Cup (Topofthegame) and although Presenting Percy won the Pertemps, he still won it in a very slightly quicker time than Penhill in the Bartlett, carrying 6lbs more.

I wonder how many Bartlett winners follow up in the RSA? Genuine question. I'm sure someone will have the answer.

[Muswell]

Bob’s worth and Weapons Amnesty are the two that come to mind

[Muswell]

Looking back they are the only two I can see monalee and Boston Bob placed on both

[JackieMoon33]

Bob’s worth and Weapons Amnesty are the two that come to mind

Yeah they would be the first that come to mind. There are probably more also rans from the AB that actually went on to win the RSA.

[Bonjers]

Denman - 2nd in Neptune
Albertas Run - 1st EBF Final off 115!
Cooldine - 2x Grade 2 novice hurdle winner, didn't travel over
Weapons Amnesty - 1st AB
Bostons Angel - PU 50/1 shot in the AB
Bobs Worth - 1st AB
Lord Windermere - 4th in the Deloitte, didn't travel over
O'Faolains Boy - 4th AB
Don Poli - 1st Martin Pipe
Blaklion - PU AB, won 3m trial in Dec
Might Bite - Won Silver Plate off 138
Presenting Percy - Won Pertemps off 146
Topofthegame - 2nd Coral Cup off 150
Champ - 2nd Neptune

[charlie]

I thought The Big Breakaway jumped too big at the majority of fences.

In better quality races, wasting energy by clearing fences too big will take its toll.


It looks amazing, but isn't the most efficent way to complete a chase IMO.

At the moment I just think he'll find one too good this year as a novice chaser, but he's a very talented looking horse obviously. Next time out I'll be watching to see how he jumps. I'm not sure he is so far clear of his rivals he can afford to jump so exuberantly when we get to Grade 1's at festivals....

I think majority is a bit harsh. He's big at 1, 4, 6, 13 and colossal at the fence at the top of the hill (7 & 16), but he's jumped 13 other fences very well IMO, and when the race tempo picked up that's when he was jumping at his best. Jury out though, I agree. I want him to be awesome but wouldn't be surprised if he find one or two too good like you say