Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Run4Home]

Have to laugh at Willie in the space of a few days going from Unexcepted to Klassical Dream as the Mullins main hope of an Arkle horse

[Lobos]

Have to laugh at Willie in the space of a few days going from Unexcepted to Klassical Dream as the Mullins main hope of an Arkle horse

What !!! The nutjob stayer Klassical Dream.......... ludicrous!

[ComplyOrDie]

Have to laugh at Willie in the space of a few days going from Unexcepted to Klassical Dream as the Mullins main hope of an Arkle horse

Where was this?

[TheRowebot]

Where was this?

https://mobile.twitter.com/SportingLife/status/1327529200409075712

[ComplyOrDie]

https://mobile.twitter.com/SportingL...29200409075712

Thank you

[Craigy14]

Great news that.

Last 2 supreme winners going hammer and tong up the hill

If he is over his issues Klassical Dream would be a massive player in the Arkle imo. Excited to see him out over fences.

I reckon Mr Mullins is pretty sweet on him.

[Kevloaf]

https://mobile.twitter.com/SportingL...29200409075712

Looks like part of the same interview where he got confused about Chacun Pour Soi

[Kevloaf]

Willie has won the Arkle four times in the last 6 years.

Those four - Duc de Genievres, Footpad, Douvan and Un de Sceaux - all started their chasing careers over a distance short of 2miles 4 furlongs.

This quartet had a total of 12 prep races over fences before the Festival. Only one of those races was over as far as 2m 4f.


DUC de GENIEVRES (Arkle winner in 2019): is the only one of the four to have run in a chase over 2miles 4furlongs before the Arkle and IMO there were special circumstances in his case.

He was still a maiden for Willie after 5 runs over hurdles. Four of those races were over 2m 4f and he only ran once at 2miles. He was 5th in the Ballymore.

They obviously saw him as a two-and-a-half miler at the time so it was logical to s start his chasing career over 2m 3f where he was second to A Plus Tard, beaten just over3 lengths.

His next race was over the minimum trip where he was a six-length third to Cilaos Emery.

He then won by 15 length over 2m 4f before he was Willie's only Arkle runner.

I'd say it's pretty obvious that DDG was not seen as one of the stable's most likely Arkle contenders at the start of the season. He may have ended up in the race almost by default because Willie had. nothing else in the race. He saddled 3 in the Marsh.

FOOTPAD (2018): all three of his prep runs for the Arkle were over 2m 1f.

DOUVAN (2016): His three prep runs were over 2m 1f, 2m 1f and 2 miles.

UN de SCEAUX (2015): His 3 prep runs were over 2m 2f, 2 miles and 2 miles.


These are the facts Q - not my opinion, just facts.

So I'm struggling to see how you can say my original comment was daft - although it did give me a chuckle (certainly no offence taken Q).

Willie's last horse to win the NH Chase was Rathvinden.

And guess what? He started his chasing career over 2 miles 4 furlongs. He was pulled up and missed the rest of the season.

But when Rathvinden resumed his novice chasing career the following season 7 of his 10 prep runs were run between 2m 31/2f and 2m 5f.

Food for thought.

Taking out Duc Des Genivres (who we all know was not Willie's first choice all season), the other 3 horses all had form far superior to Janidil didn't they?

Janidil isn't going to end up an Arkle horse cos he's not good enough for it, not because he's starting over 2m4f.


Surprising if he ends up a Grade 1 Novice Chaser, whereas Un De Sceaux, Footpad and Douvan all had Grade 1 form, winning form in the latter case...

Janidil, average hurdler?





***I haven't checked the ratings

[isitmarchyet]

Looks like part of the same interview where he got confused about Chacun Pour Soi

Can't wait to hear about Al Boum Photo going for a historic third Coral Cup.

[nortonscoin200]

Taking out Duc Des Genivres (who we all know was not Willie's first choice all season), the other 3 horses all had form far superior to Janidil didn't they?

Janidil isn't going to end up an Arkle horse cos he's not good enough for it, not because he's starting over 2m4f.


Surprising if he ends up a Grade 1 Novice Chaser, whereas Un De Sceaux, Footpad and Douvan all had Grade 1 form, winning form in the latter case...

Janidil, average hurdler?





***I haven't checked the ratings

Kev, I totally agree that Janidil won't be good enough for the Arkle.

But this is what Willie told the Racing Post about Janidil in his stable tour last week:

"He goes novice chasing and he could be smart enough to go down the Arkle route. I know he ran in the Albert Bartlett, but he did all his winning prior to that over two miles."

The point I'm trying to make is that running Janidil in a 2m 4f race on his novice chase debut is not going down the Arkle route.

I still think this race entry is a clear signal that Willie is not thinking of Janidil in terms of the Arkle. Despite what Q says I maintain trainers are far more likely to give their novice chasers a step up in trip after their fencing debut than to bring them back in trip.

But who cares.

The question is where will Janidil end up at the Festival?

The answer is surprisingly predictable provided Willie sticks to his well entrenched Festival race planning policy.

Let's assume you're right and he's not good enough for a Grade ! Novice Chase - which rules out the Arkle, Marsh and RSA.

That leaves us with 5 options - the Grand Annual, the Brown Advisory, Ultima, Kim Muir and National Hunt Chase.

GRAND ANNUAL: We can rule it out because Willie hates the race. Over the last 5 years he's had just ONE runner - a second season novice who pulled up in 2018.

BROWN ADVISORY: Janidil's not going to end up here either because it's completely against the way Willie operates. He uses it as a race to give older chasers a run at the Festival. He hasn't run a novice chaser in the BA for the last 5 years. Here's Willie's record in the race:

2020: 3 runners aged 10,10 and 9 - all unplaced.
2019: 1 runner aged 10 - unplaced.
2018: 0 runners.
2017: 0 runners.
2016: 1 runner aged 9, a second season chaser who came 5th.

ULTIMA: It's also highly unlikely Janidil will run here because it's completely against Willie's modus operandi. Over the last five years he's saddled just ONE runner in the Ultima - Up For Review, a second season chaser who went off co-favourite and finished 8th in 2019.

KIM MUIR: It's just possible but unlikely that Janidil will run here for two reasons. Firstly, he might struggle to get a low enough qualifying mark because of his 149 rating over hurdles. Secondly, it's not a race Willie much cares for - particularly for his decent novice chasers. He's had just 3 runners in the KM over the last 5 years but one of them was a novice who would have struggled to get in his second team. Here's Willie's record in the race:

2020: Second season chaser Cabaret Queen, aged 8, finishes 15th at 40-1.
2019: Second season chaser aged 9 is unplaced.
2018: 0 runners
2017: 0 runners
2016: Six-year-old novice chaser Sambremont finishes 8th at 14-1. Sambremont was only rated 123 over hurdles but ran here on the back of victory in the Grade 2 Flying Bolt novice chase at Navan.

NH CHASE: Willie hasn't won any of the above four Festival handicap chases in the last decade. It's all about the graded chases for him. He simply doesn't target the handicaps - specially not with his novices.

But he has won the NH Chase twice in the last 8 years and usually has a fancied runner in the race. He's had 9 runners in the race over the last 5 years. Here's his record:

2020: 1 runner. Carefully Selected ( aged 8)went off 10-11 favourite and unseated at the last when held in third.
2019: 1runner. Ballyward (aged 7) was the 9-4 favourite and fell. It was only his third run over fences.
2018: 2 runners. Rathvinden (aged 10) was a 9-2 shot and WON, Pylonthepressure (aged 8) came 5th.
2017: 2 runners. Haymount (aged 8) a 33-1 shot came third and Abre De Vie (aged 7) unseated when beaten.
2016: 3 runners. Measureofmydreams (aged8) was 3rd at 9-1 while Pleasant Company (8) and 15-2 shot Pont Alexandre (8) both pulled up.

Conclusion: Unless Janidil proves to be a Grade 1 chaser (unlikely) he has 3 options for the Festival:
1. Stay home.
2. Revert to hurdles.
3. Run in the NH Chase for which he is 33-1 with Bet365. And if Janidil ends up here I think he's capable of giving Galvin a run for his money.

Daft or what?

[JackieMoon33]

“3. Run in the NH Chase for which he is 33-1 with Bet365. And if Janidil ends up here I think he's capable of giving Galvin a run for his money.

Daft or what?”

I’d still like to know what this last point is based on, especially the assumption that he’s capable of giving Galvin a run for his money over the NH trip. I think if you wound back the clock and Willie had the final decision then Janidil would not have run in the AB. The horses that finished in front of him in the AB absolutely smoked him between the last two flights and pulled well clear. To me it looked like Janidil emptied and didn’t get the trip as he was in a decent enough position turning for home. The rest of his season he was winning over two miles, in fact, that’s the only distance he’s ever won at. It’s a real leap of faith that he’s going to become a 3m6f novice chaser and a festival winner to boot.

[Quevega]

“3. Run in the NH Chase for which he is 33-1 with Bet365. And if Janidil ends up here I think he's capable of giving Galvin a run for his money.

Daft or what?”

I’d still like to know what this last point is based on, especially the assumption that he’s capable of giving Galvin a run for his money over the NH trip. I think if you wound back the clock and Willie had the final decision then Janidil would not have run in the AB. The horses that finished in front of him in the AB absolutely smoked him between the last two flights and pulled well clear. To me it looked like Janidil emptied and didn’t get the trip as he was in a decent enough position turning for home. The rest of his season he was winning over two miles, in fact, that’s the only distance he’s ever won at. It’s a real leap of faith that he’s going to become a 3m6f novice chaser and a festival winner to boot.

he's had 3pts on at 50-1, so the effort and wishful thinking is understandable

[Muswell]

Shiskin amongst others in the ladbroke trophy gallops this morning on RTV

[darlojim]

Shiskin amongst others in the ladbroke trophy gallops this morning on RTV

Don't see him on the list??

[nortonscoin200]

He's had 3pts on at 50-1, so the effort and wishful thinking is understandable

Below the belt Q - I'm also on Galvin at a tasty price for the NH Chase and have also backed Janidil TWAR.

So in terms of my pocket, Janidil running in a handicap would suit me far better.

But that's just not going to happen based on hard facts showing Willie's race strategy at the Festival over the last 5 years. He simply does not run first season novice chasers in handicaps at the Festival. The only exception was Sambremont who had a RPR of 134 when he ran in the Kim Muir in 2016. That was always going to be the height of his ambition but Janidil is in a totally different league to Sambremont.

I think you will find it very difficult to come up with evidence to knock my theory.

The fact that Janidil is owned by JP makes it all the more likely he will go for the NH Chase in my book. JP has won the race twice in the last seven years, usually has a fancied runner and doesn't have an obvious candidate now Early Doors is likely to be out for the season.

Regarding the point posed by Jackie - on what do I base the assumption that Janidil can give Galvin a run for his money over 3m 6f when he got smoked in the AB?

1. The AB was Janidil's first run beyond 2m 2f where he "kept on to hold second" in a 38k listed hurdle at Auteuil where he was beaten 2 lengths in a 16-runner field on his third and final start before joining Willie.

2. Janidil was hardly a flop in the AB. He beaten just over 11 lengths by Monkfish (co favourite for the RSA), Fury Road and Thyme Hill (both in the top 6 in betting for the Stayers Hurdle) and Latest Exhibition who will probably still be a leading contender for the RSA/Marsh despite his reputation taking a knock last week. If Janidil is so far off the pace how come those four are so short in the betting for Grade 1 races? I just don't get it.

3. I've just watched a replay of the AB (for probably the tenth time since March) and just noticed something for the first time. Every horse in the field was in with a chance of winning at the top of the hill on the final circuit. Janidil was travelling comfortably towards the back of the pack and started to make ground coming down the hill but had a wall of horses to pass and was slightly checked. They really motored down the hill and all the way to the line. It was a really tough ask for Janidil to make up ground on the leaders and then have the stamina left to go with them up the straight. Basically, he didn't quite have the speed or the stamina to match them. But that was a hell of a hot race and he was far from disgraced. here's the AB replay:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nDec49F10jE&ab_channel=RacingTV

4. I don't think Galvin would have done any better than Janidil in the AB. He was a 15 length sixth in the Ballymore and rated 9lbs inferior to Janidil over hurdles.

5. The NH Chase will be far easier to win than the AB in my book and Janidil will start at single figures if he takes his chance.

(Just been called by my wife for second time - that's my lot)