Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe 2020

[Saxon Warrior]

Excellent, thanks SW.

Very pleased to have her onside.



I might take the 20/1 being dangled for Stradiavarius.... seems pretty obvious that's where they're going now, 14/1 everywhere else that I consider bookmakers.

Then again, he's got no chance of going off really short has he, unless Enable got injured and Frankie was on or something uncontrollable.

I would look at Stradivarius's Arc bid from the question:- How is the Arc going to be run that gives Stradivarius his best chance of winning?

- He cant play a hold-up race, over 12F surely? - and hope for the gaps to come and him to quicken through them

- Has he enough pace to be handy early on, (after the traditional charge from the gates for position) and then to take the lead and grind it out in the straight?

Given the track layout and the rhythm of the Arc, with horses pushed to get a position at the start, then relaxed ready for a move entering the straight, I'm struggling to see the way the race would be run that would see him win, at the moment. The Prix Foy will reveal more - probably.

[jack1092]

Apologies Jack, missed this post!



You made any changes?

Mine is currently:

Live: 10.2 pts

20/1 - Love (1.25 pt e/w)
25/1 - Ghiayyath (1 pt e/w)
33/1 - Raabihah (1 pt e/w)
22/1 and 40/1 - Japan (1 pt e/w and 0.5 pt e/w)
181/1 - Fleeting (0.7pts)

Cashed out total: -0.6pts
English King
Frankly Darling
Mogul
Russian Emperor
*Enable (+)

No i haven't changed anything, in fact, after doing the book i forgot about it until Raabihah won ran yesterday.

She looks very good and happy to have her onside.

I sort of knew Franconia was a massive long shot, the chances of her rocking up were marginal to say the least.

With Love likely to go here, Peaceful is also a massive longshot, but her form is still looking good, and by Galileo, who knows!?

i have to admit, there isn't anything that catches the eye at the prices now? Stradivarius, he's not priced too big for me anyway.

[Kevloaf]

I would look at Stradivarius's Arc bid from the question:- How is thee Arc going to be run that gives Stradivarius his best chance of winning?

- He cant play a hold-up race, over 12F surely, and hope for the gaps to come and him to quicken through them
- Has he enough pace to be handy early on, and then to take the lead and grind it out in the straight?

Given the track layout and the rhythm of the Arc, with horses pushed to get a position at the start, then relaxed, I'm struggling to see the way the race would be run that would see him win, at the moment. The Prix Foy will reveal more - probably.

Yeah I think that's a fair assessment. I think the jockey booking would be important for him, it could make a big difference to how he's ridden.

I don't feel like he'd be outpaced but then the Coronation Cup doesn't back that up. He was outpaced and stayed on well-ish. That could have been race fitness though?



20/1 hasn't made me pull the trigger. I just wonder what price he'd be on the day... a multiple group 1 winner.

Pfft, nah, it's just not happening is it.

[kinloch brae]

If I owned Raabihah I would be sorting something out to make sure there is pace in both the Vermeille and the Arc. The last thing she wants is to be tanking out wide again. Far too often these days races are wrecked by a big dust up to get to front and then someone just sets a crawl. Love, Enable and Stradivarius are not going to set a pace and even if Ghaiyyath turned up I suspect he would try and stack them up rather than go a proper pace.

[Kevloaf]

Ghaiyyath done his claims no harm today!

In my opinion he a better horse than he showed when flopping in this race last year.


Hopefully he runs his race and we'll know something is very, very good if they're getting past him.

[Saxon Warrior]

Ghaiyyath was excellent today.

I would have thought the Arc to be crowned horse of the year.
William Buick was thinking he could go there if the ground wasn't bad.

Charlie Appleby was talking of 10F and a soft ground Champion Stakes would suit best.
Probably only 1/5th of the money!

I'm sure after a sleep Mr A will see the light.
After all he could plan for the Arc and then if it was too soft, pull out and wait 2 weeks for Ascot.

[Istabraq]

May very well see Franconia entering the Arc market after tomorrow...

[Saxon Warrior]

I've just seen the Champion Stakes early market:-

5/2 Ghaiyyath
5/2 Mishriff
6/1 Lord North
6/1 Magical
12/1 Kameko
14/1 Addeyb

Maybe Ghaiyyath will come here, he has beaten the top of the market (barring Mishriff) today.

I think one thing is for sure, he won't run in both as connections say he needs time between his races, as he gives such "full-on" performances, and needs recovery time.

[gjt7756]

If travel is okay I believe he will go for the champion stakes at Leopardstown then he will be backed off for a nice break him then brought back for the breeders cup

[Kevloaf]

I've just seen the Champion Stakes early market:-

5/2 Ghaiyyath
5/2 Mishriff
6/1 Lord North
6/1 Magical
12/1 Kameko
14/1 Addeyb

Maybe Ghaiyyath will come here, he has beaten the top of the market (barring Mishriff) today.

I think one thing is for sure, he won't run in both as connections say he needs time between his races, as he gives such "full-on" performances, and needs recovery time.

Must be tempting for them...

What are Charlie/Godolphin's other options for each race I wonder.

[Saxon Warrior]

Must be tempting for them...

What are Charlie/Godolphin's other options for each race I wonder.

Godolphin have Barney Roy and Victor Ludorum quoted in the Champion Stakes market, at 20/1 and 25/1.

Victor Ludorum is the only one they have in the Arc other than Ghaiyyath.

I hope he goes to Paris, and all of the other favs come through their trials victorious, ready for the race of the season.

[Kevloaf]

After wins at York for two of the top 3 in the betting:

[Kevloaf]

Live: 10.2 pts and -0.6 pts in cash outs overall

20/1 - Love (1.25 pt e/w)
25/1 - Ghiayyath (1 pt e/w)
33/1 - Raabihah (1 pt e/w)
22/1 and 40/1 - Japan (1 pt e/w and 0.5 pt e/w)
181/1 - Fleeting (0.7pts)




Interesting that Love has gone favourite after the Yorkshire Oaks which was weaker than the previous rae she won?... all those 3 year old allowances she'll get clearly not missed by the market.

I wouldn't be backing her at that price that's for sure, but very easy to be pleased with her at 20/1 (obviously).


Looking like being a great race still, let's hope they all make it.

[Craigy14]

Mishriff another 3 year old of obvious interest, still 14/1 with sky, might take a punt.
Use to the french soft ground as well.

It is shaping to be a belter!

[jack1092]

Mishriff another 3 year old of obvious interest, still 14/1 with sky, might take a punt.
Use to the french soft ground as well.

It is shaping to be a belter!

He's not certain to go though which would be a worry i'd say!