Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe 2020

[kinloch brae]

Be a huge shock if to lose the ride wouldn't it?

Beaten 0.5L in a Group 1

"In touch, ridden to chase leaders over 2f out, every chance from 1 1/2f out, kept on well, just held"

I appreciate we all see the races differently (and I haven't bothered to go back and watch) but as a backer on the day I don't remember thinking the jockey had cost me the race there... on another day it could have been different, but I'd be surprised if he didn't "keep the ride".


I also don't know the ins and outs of the operation in France, but I assume Crowley wouldn't be first pick when it's a French trained horse for those owners? Happy to be corrected though.

I don't know if there is a separate contract but having ridden 6 Royal Ascot winners I would be massively surprised if Crowley isn't clear top dog in the Maktoum stable. If I was the owner I would always want the best available.

Yes, I have Raabihah's optimum trip as 1m4f but that doesn't mean that she couldn't have won on the day. Clearly you can win by a cosy 1/2 length but that wasn't an example.

As for Love if I had backed her I would be hoping she takes a break and goes Yorkshire Oaks and Arc. They can experiment next year.

[kinloch brae]

I don't know if there is a separate contract but having ridden 6 Royal Ascot winners I would be massively surprised if Crowley isn't clear top dog in the Maktoum stable. If I was the owner I would always want the best available.

Yes, I have Raabihah's optimum trip as 1m4f but that doesn't mean that she couldn't have won on the day. Clearly you can win by a cosy 1/2 length but that wasn't an example.

As for Love if I had backed her I would be hoping she takes a break and goes Yorkshire Oaks and Arc. They can experiment next year.

I see Aidan's taken the advice. Good news for backers.

[Kevloaf]

Japan has been pushed to 40/1 with one firm.


Obviously it's incredibly hard to see him finishing ahead of Enable at any point, but that's a big price when it's surely still his no.1 target (as it was before this weekend)




Infact, I'm backing him at 40/1 now.....

I did back at 20s with PP, so that's still there, but I expect him to go off sub 20/1 and on the day I'll cash the PP ones out.




Might be a bit wild, but 40/1 for a horse the Japanese bought into, with a very clear target to peak in October, getting beaten in July is a bit of an over reaction.


I would definitely back him on the day at 40/1 each way anyway, so I'll chance it.

[thorne365]

dont think you'll get the cashout option on the day - they use different books for antepost usually (so look to do it a few days before i guess!)

[Kevloaf]

dont think you'll get the cashout option on the day - they use different books for antepost usually (so look to do it a few days before i guess!)

Yeah, good point. I'd look to cash it as soon as it gets back to 100% (it's not really a big amount anyway so I could and may just let it run).... depends how it looks.





I'll probably have to attempt to get Enable in the book, as FOMO kicks in on her!

[PaisleyClegg]

I'll probably have to attempt to get Enable in the book, as FOMO kicks in on her!

Thought Enable looked great on Saturday, the race didn't necessarily go her way and she just blazed away from former Group 1 winners.

What a story it would be if she could win a third!

[Kevloaf]

Thought Enable looked great on Saturday, the race didn't necessarily go her way and she just blazed away from former Group 1 winners.

What a story it would be if she could win a third!

Absolutely....and I'm going to attempt My Sister Sarah e/w (5pl) tonight with Enable at 35/1

[Kevloaf]

Absolutely....and I'm going to attempt My Sister Sarah e/w (5pl) tonight with Enable at 35/1

That leaves me with effectively 2 points (place only) at 5/4 I think (or close enough)

I can cash it for a small profit which I may end up doing when I think about it a bit more.


**Cashed it for a small profit. No point tying up 2 points for a couple of months to win 4.25 pts is there.

[Kevloaf]

Have added Raabihah before she runs in the Diane at (14:55)

33/1, hopefully wins but shouldn't get pushed out too much after if not.

We'll see.

As stated, I left this ready for her next run... the 0.5L defeat behind Fancy Blue looks a nice piece of form still given FB gave Donnacha a second Group 1 earlier this week.

I thought Raabihah didnt get the breaks in the straight, having had a good position throughout the race, up til then.

This may have been because she is more a 12F horse, and didnt have the speed (or experience) to avoid the bit of trouble she had getting a clear run.

She wasnt unlucky, just unable to take advantage of a good position, and i would think that she will improve a lot for 12F and a couple more races.

She was the most inexperienced filly involved in the finish (only had two prior runs).

Her breeding screams 12F, being by Sea the Stars out of an unraced mare, who's mother was Eswarah (Epsom Oaks winner) and who's grandmother was Midway Lady (Epsom Oaks winner).

She may run again in the next two months, but the plan could be Prix Vermeille then Arc.

Runs tomorrow, 16:00 - currently 6/4 fav.

Hoping for a good run, not given up on here as part of my arc 'team'

[Kevloaf]

Apologies Jack, missed this post!

Kev, you making a book makes me slightly intrigued about trying one.

I don't have your 20/1 on Love, f'ing lovely.

I took 8s after the race.

Today's Diane actually made me considering adding Peaceful, 50s on betfair, main issue is how likely she is to show up there. I think she'd stay a mile 1/2. Love + Magician ahead of her.

Im going to take the available on Franconia as well- 270. Now, chances of her running here are pretty big, but she's 11/8 during the week + at Enable's age, who knows? She might not improve for today (likely she will). If that happens there's a tiny squeak we could see Franconia end up here. Logician also another one that's ahead of her. Lucky it's tiny money!


Love 8/1 (win) 15pts
Peaceful 50.0 (win) 2pts
Raabihah 41.5 (win) 2pts
Franconia 270.0 (win) 2pts


I'll maybe add a couple more and diversify the book away from 3yo fillies They can't + won't all show up.

Currently my fun book.

You made any changes?

Mine is currently:

Live: 10.2 pts

20/1 - Love (1.25 pt e/w)
25/1 - Ghiayyath (1 pt e/w)
33/1 - Raabihah (1 pt e/w)
22/1 and 40/1 - Japan (1 pt e/w and 0.5 pt e/w)
181/1 - Fleeting (0.7pts)

Cashed out total: -0.6pts
English King
Frankly Darling
Mogul
Russian Emperor
*Enable (+)

[kinloch brae]

Backed Raabihah EW.

Love remains by far the most likely winner but I will be surprised it there is that much depth to the final field. If Raabihah can find 7-10lbs for the step up in trip then she is in the mix for a place.

It seems from the trainer comments I wasn't the only one very disappointed with the Prix De Diane result. I was a little surprised at how highly he rates the filly given that he trained La Cressionnaire who didn't do anything wrong other than failing to make the Arc.

[Saxon Warrior]

I too was disappointed with Raabihah in the French Oaks, and I thought finishing in a 4-way lunge for the line was less than I thought she could achieve.

She was the least experienced filly in that field, and 1M4F was said to be her likely best trip, so I took those as pointers that she could improve for more races and a step up in trip.

To be honest I thought we wouldn't see here at 1M2F again, but she breezed clear, and it looks like she is back on track.

Her trainer absolutely loves her, and the interview given post-race reveals just how much:-


RP comments
Such is the belief shown by Jean-Claude Rouget in the daughter of Sea The Stars, it would be a brave bookmaker that offered odds against her not being the most celebrated of the trio (Battaash, Mohaather and Raabihah) by the end of the season, given her trainer's estimation that Raabihah is "the best filly I have trained since Stacelita."

Rouget confessed he had been sorely disappointed at the way the Prix de Diane unfolded where an unusually languid pace dictated by the three Irish-trained fillies left Raabihah marooned at the back before charging home to be fourth behind Fancy Blue.

"She is clearly a Group 1 filly and it's a real shame to miss out in the Diane, which was only her third race," said Rouget. "She lacked experience and Cristian [Demuro] dared not make more use of her."

"Today there was Raabihah and then the rest and I think she's the best filly in France. But that [a mile and a quarter] is not her trip and it's only her class that she is getting by on. Her second and third dams both won the Oaks and we'll look at the Arc with the Vermeille in between".

"I haven't trained a filly as good as her since Stacelita and that was why I was so down after the Prix de Diane. You never have two chances at a race like that."

RP comments
Such a statement needs to be taken seriously, since that places Raabihah above such luminaries as
La Cressonniere (French 1000 Guineas and French Oaks winner),
Avenir Certain (French 1000 Guineas & French Oaks winner) and
Qemah (multiple Group 1 winner)
in the Rouget hierarchy.

Raabihah was widely available at 33-1 before the Pysche and, with the Diane form looking strong and the promise of better to come when upped to a mile and a half, the revised 20-1 might not be considered an overreaction.

[Kevloaf]

Very positive isn't it, I'd definitely be backing her at 20/1 if I wasn't already involved.

Did he mention her next stop?

[Saxon Warrior]

Very positive isn't it, I'd definitely be backing her at 20/1 if I wasn't already involved.

Did he mention her next stop?

Prix Vermeille, as he seems to be gutted she isnt a Group 1 winner already, she will go to the Fillies Group 1 on Arc Trials Day.
That tallies with his comment that she wont go 10F again.

PS: I have updated the post, which mentions it would be a brave bookmaker that offered "odds against" her being the most celebrated of the Hamdan trio by the end of the season.

The trio was Battaash, Mohaather and Raabihah!

As well as a 'Win Single' I've got Raabihah in a few low stake roll-ups at 33/1 and 25/1, may add a couple more today at 20/1 before that price goes.

It only takes a small stake at Raabihah's price to give a good roll-over payout on Cheltenham picks (or other antepost bets). Its something I prefer to do than have any bets at Goodwood.

[Kevloaf]

Prix Vermeille, as he seems to be gutted she isnt a Group 1 winner already, she will go to the Fillies Group 1 on Arc Trials Day.
That tallies with his comment that she wont go 10F again.

PS: I have updated the post, which mentions it would be a brave bookmaker that offered "odds against" her being the most celebrated of the Hamdan trio by the end of the season.

The trio was Battaash, Mohaather and Raabihah!

Excellent, thanks SW.

Very pleased to have her onside.



I might take the 20/1 being dangled for Stradiavarius.... seems pretty obvious that's where they're going now, 14/1 everywhere else that I consider bookmakers.

Then again, he's got no chance of going off really short has he, unless Enable got injured and Frankie was on or something uncontrollable.