Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe 2020

[Saxon Warrior]

Very Unfortunate for Love backers not to get a run for the money, even with the doubts.
Sounds like they would have waited for the draw and the ground on the day, but the loss of Ryan being able to ride was a factor ???
The last bit I don't get. They just jocked him off Magical the last day and she ran her best race.

More importantly Kinloch, we don't get to find out who was talking bollocks.
I'll settle for the fact that most of us do some of the time, some more than others. and some a little less so.
The skill is sifting through the Bollocks that's been talked to try and find the Dog's Bollocks.
Officially the best Bollocks in the world.
Now that's talking Bollocks.

Glad I held off with Love. Was very close as she drifted as was sure they'd at least let her take her chance.
Lost the bet on Telecaster though.

Now on Mogul 1pt 25-1
Sovereign 1pt 210-1
Both been hovering around those prices all week. On the Exchange.

Ive done the same with Sovereign, Q, at similar prices on BFX.
There is no standout AOB runner, they should all do whats best for their own chances.

....and now we have Mickael Barzalona riding him.

[Quevega]

When I seen Serpentine had been supplemented for the Arc I went on to my PP account and stuck few pound each way at 16/1. 12/1 I see now this morning with PP.

Not got best draw in 15/15 - will likely drift again now.
Will do well to front run from there.
Enable got perfect draw in 5.
Mogul in 3 also OK.

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/211/longchamp/2020-10-04/763753/

[Istabraq]

Updated market:


Enable 5/4
Stradivarius 13/2
Sottsass 9/1
In Swoop 11/1
Serpentine 12/1
Raabihah 14/1
Japan 14/1
Mogul 16/1
Japan (IRE) 18/1
Persian King 20/1
Way To Paris 40/1
Gold Trip 40 /1
Deirdre 66/1
Sovereign 100/1
Chachnak 150/1
Royal Julius 200/1

[Faugheen_Machine]

The draw puts me off Serpentine. In Swoop has a good draw and will relish the soft ground. Every ml of rain that falls is in his favour.

He might not be good enough but he'll definitely go on the ground. I can't be backing Enable at that price on likely bottomless ground.

[Quevega]

Stradivarius looks way too obvious now.
Surely it has to suit this horse, especially if they go a decent gallop.
The draw not so important to him, as likely to be held up now.
And try and reel them in up the straight.

[Kevloaf]

Glad Japan is back below 20/1 - that 40/1 I highlighted was way too much of an over reaction.

I'll cash my 22/1 and 20/1 as 100% and have him running at 40/1.




I hope Enable wins now, or Rabihaah of course as she's still live.

Stradivarius 2nd favourite for the Arc, sweet Lord.

[Lobos]

I do think it's fixed for Enable to win . Enable being smashed into short fav, Love being pulled (AOB paid off?) and now a great draw. The flat season has struggled to create any enthusiasm in light of Covid and could do with a massive shot in the arm before it ends. Superstar Enable winning will provide that.

[Appreciate It]

I do think it's fixed for Enable to win . Enable being smashed into short fav, Love being pulled (AOB paid off?) and now a great draw. The flat season has struggled to create any enthusiasm in light of Covid and could do with a massive shot in the arm before it ends. Superstar Enable winning will provide that.

I've seen some conspiracy theories in my time, but this might just top the lot. Lobos are you seriously saying that connections from all over the world have forged an alliance and agreed to fix the richest race in Europe so that a 5/4 favourite can win and give the public a pick me up?

P.S. I am an enable backer, but would have much much much preferred to see Love winning it.

[Lobos]

I've seen some conspiracy theories in my time, but this might just top the lot. Lobos are you seriously saying that connections from all over the world have forged an alliance and agreed to fix the richest race in Europe so that a 5/4 favourite can win and give the public a pick me up?

P.S. I am an enable backer, but would have much much much preferred to see Love winning it.

Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying. About time we had another Frankie fix.....after all it's been over 24 years since they let him win on Fujiyama Crest to achieve his magnificent 7.

I was in the shop that day and only joined the party after his 4th win. The treble paid a nice bit but it could have been so much better

[kinloch brae]

Stradivarius looks way too obvious now.
Surely it has to suit this horse, especially if they go a decent gallop.
The draw not so important to him, as likely to be held up now.
And try and reel them in up the straight.

Trouncing a tiring Nayef Road over 2m4f isn't quite the same as winning an Arc over a mile shorter. On everything he has shown over shorter distances he is much too short.

By the way don't you think Aidan would have run Love if he thought she was going to act on the ground? I think we found out the answer to Sunday's question today.

[jack1092]

I do think it's fixed for Enable to win . Enable being smashed into short fav, Love being pulled (AOB paid off?) and now a great draw. The flat season has struggled to create any enthusiasm in light of Covid and could do with a massive shot in the arm before it ends. Superstar Enable winning will provide that.

Lol, what a load of cobblers.

AOB/Coolmore paid off......like they need the money

[Quevega]

Trouncing a tiring Nayef Road over 2m4f isn't quite the same as winning an Arc over a mile shorter. On everything he has shown over shorter distances he is much too short.

By the way don't you think Aidan would have run Love if he thought she was going to act on the ground? I think we found out the answer to Sunday's question today.

He is too short, for sure.
But he has also done far more in his career than beat Nayef Road. The versatility and consistency is hard to knock, and if he was ever to win an arc, then this renewal and the likely conditions, and pace. Then this is it.

As regards Love. It sounded to me like he thought asking her to race on that ground would probably finish her for the season, and they have other options, financially better ones at that. Which makes some sense, especially if they have the US and then Asia on their minds. It seemed like they will likely run her 2 or 3 more times. Ideally.

So it was not so much in their minds that she'd definitely be beat.
He also made a point of saying she did very well on what he thought was as near to soft ground at York.

We 100% did not find the answer to Sundays question today.
But if you want to clasp at something. Hold tight.

I've always conceded that extremes of ground carries risks. So Heavy would naturally have been a concern.
But the difference between Soft and good ground would not have worried me for a minute, in this case in particular.

[parimutuel]

In Swoop 25/1 ew

Snatched second when 2.5l behind Mogul on good ground Sunday but won the German Derby on GS and has won on soft too so pretty versatile.

Added Persian King 22/1 ew 2 places

[nortonscoin200]

Gold Trip the each way value at 56-1 (Hills with boost) to finish in first 4.

Finished strongly to beat In Swoop (best price 10-1) by a length on soft ground over 1m 3f and only went down by a short head to the same horse on good ground when they were beaten 2 1/2 lengths by Mogul on good over 1m 4f at Longchamp last month.

Reckon the heavy ground will play into the hands of the 3-year-olds getting the weight allowance.

Gold Trip drawn 9 which is a bit wider than ideal but not a disaster.

Raabihaah must also have a very decent chance at the weights/draw but coming to the party late I can't get excited about 16-1 as an each way proposition.

1pt each way Gold Trip

[nortonscoin200]

Hills have pushed Gold Trip out to 75-1 with boost - I've obviously got em running for cover.

So, chocs away....

Another 1pt each way Gold Trip at 75-1.

Convinced myself he's a better horse in testing conditions and heavy ground is more likely to throw up a shock result.

Who else remembers Jet Ski Lady sluicing through the mud to win The Oaks at 50-1?

Gold Trip doesn't even have to beat Enable - fourth place will do nicely.