Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe 2020

[Quevega]

Quite some weekend for all of those who have supported Ghaiyyath and Love.

I wasn't surprised Ghaiyyath won today but I shall still be very surprised if he is good enough to win an Arc. I would say it is by no means certain he heads in that direction. If he heads for York and looks short of pace would you still want him for an Arc? I know there were excuses for Enable but my guess would be that she is past her best.

On the other hand ability wise you would think Love has every chance but that said she will have to cope with both ground and whatever the draw throws at her. On the plus side it might be a small field. After today how many of the french are going to turn out? Victor Ludorum came to win his race and didn't; Pao Alto seemed to have left the speed he had previously shown at home and the least said about Ocean Atlantique the better. I think Raabihah should have won the Diane - surely Crowley is 1/2 length better than Demuro - but on that evidence she is no superstar. Did they all have an off day together? I doubt it.

It is a shame that Japan are not sending over their best because surely this year would provide them with a decent opportunity.

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Agree about Ghaiyyath for the Arc, it just seems a race that won't suit him. Not sure what you mean about pace though as that looks something he's not short of. The draw he gets and the ride and fractions would have to be perfection in a field with so many dangers and giving serious weight to some seriously decent 3 year olds.

The Juddmonte looks the perfect race for him, unless running up the middle without a rail freaks him out a bit.

[kinloch brae]

I've always wondered (but done no proper analysis yet) why on the flat people talk about middle aged horses (5/6+?) as past their best, but NH they're still considered progressive. Is it actual fact - maybe something to do with bodies being more worn down from running earlier in their life (like some french NH breds) - or simply that we don't get to see many top quality horses in training on the flat for long so don't have the data readily available to form opinions?

I think it is quite possible that they can improve but you have to make individual judgements. I thought it was a relatively weak Arc last year and at her best Enable would have won. Even if she wasn't fully tuned up I would also have had her beating Ghaiyyath yesterday. Of course most flat horses are finished before the majority of jumpers even start. The jumpers are essentially bred for stamina, rather than speed and I suspect the speed wanes before the stamina.

[kinloch brae]

Just a general ante-post question what percentage of your bets are covered by the cash out option?

Increasingly, I feel increasingly like out of water in that I just look for a horse to win a race and if the price is big enough (irrespective of whether a trade out is available) more often than not I will take it.

[thorne365]

I think it is quite possible that they can improve but you have to make individual judgements. I thought it was a relatively weak Arc last year and at her best Enable would have won. Even if she wasn't fully tuned up I would also have had her beating Ghaiyyath yesterday. Of course most flat horses are finished before the majority of jumpers even start. The jumpers are essentially bred for stamina, rather than speed and I suspect the speed wanes before the stamina.

Makes sense tbf - do wonder if there's an angle there though - you do see decent performances from old sprinters quite often even if not top level

[thorne365]

Just a general ante-post question what percentage of your bets are covered by the cash out option?

Increasingly, I feel increasingly like out of water in that I just look for a horse to win a race and if the price is big enough (irrespective of whether a trade out is available) more often than not I will take it.

For me it's < 10% - i don't have access to b365 and rarely seem to back horses that PP are top price on, so its not something that really concerns me. I have been bitten plenty of times though but thems the breaks! Bar the big races/festivals I definitely do most of my betting ante post too

[kinloch brae]

Makes sense tbf - do wonder if there's an angle there though - you do see decent performances from old sprinters quite often even if not top level

That's right but are there other factors at play other than age? A six year-old having run in big field handicaps may be that much more battle hardened than an inexperienced three year-old.

[Saxon Warrior]

I didnt think yesterdays Eclipse had the 2020 Arc winner anywhere in it.

The first three were all beaten by Waldgeist last season, and for me, the chances are that some of these emerging classic 3 year olds could have better chances.

[Stormy Antarctic]

Quite some weekend for all of those who have supported Ghaiyyath and Love.

I wasn't surprised Ghaiyyath won today but I shall still be very surprised if he is good enough to win an Arc. I would say it is by no means certain he heads in that direction. If he heads for York and looks short of pace would you still want him for an Arc? I know there were excuses for Enable but my guess would be that she is past her best.

On the other hand ability wise you would think Love has every chance but that said she will have to cope with both ground and whatever the draw throws at her. On the plus side it might be a small field. After today how many of the french are going to turn out? Victor Ludorum came to win his race and didn't; Pao Alto seemed to have left the speed he had previously shown at home and the least said about Ocean Atlantique the better. I think Raabihah should have won the Diane - surely Crowley is 1/2 length better than Demuro - but on that evidence she is no superstar. Did they all have an off day together? I doubt it.

It is a shame that Japan are not sending over their best because surely this year would provide them with a decent opportunity.

I wouldn’t necessarily say Crowley would’ve done any better, I’m a big fan of his but Demuro has become an excellent jockey over there. If I was backing Raabihah in the arc, i’d much rather have Demuro on her. He has a great understanding of the French courses

[kinloch brae]

I wouldn’t necessarily say Crowley would’ve done any better, I’m a big fan of his but Demuro has become an excellent jockey over there. If I was backing Raabihah in the arc, i’d much rather have Demuro on her. He has a great understanding of the French courses

There doesn't seem to be any obvious difficulties to their leading tracks, certainly nothing that should trouble a decent jockey. The problems arise from the lack of pace - unable to settle, boxed in and too far back would be the three favourites.

[Stormy Antarctic]

There doesn't seem to be any obvious difficulties to their leading tracks, certainly nothing that should trouble a decent jockey. The problems arise from the lack of pace - unable to settle, boxed in and too far back would be the three favourites.

We are talking about the same race? The French oaks? Where Raabihah was ridden prominently throughout the entire race from her wide draw? I didn’t think Demuro had many options. The filly had every chance to go and win but wasn’t quite up to it. No sign of being boxed in and too far back.

[kinloch brae]

We are talking about the same race? The French oaks? Where Raabihah was ridden prominently throughout the entire race from her wide draw? I didn’t think Demuro had many options. The filly had every chance to go and win but wasn’t quite up to it. No sign of being boxed in and too far back.

I was responding to your comment regarding 'understanding of french courses'.

As for the Diane I don't believe he got the filly settled and racing on an even keel in the early stages and as for the finish to my eyes the other jockeys fighting out the finish looked stronger in the saddle than he did. If he had gone down by 3-4 lengths then it wouldn't have been worth mentioning but a change of jockey could easily make 1/2 length difference. Perhaps she will go for the Vermeille? It will be interesting to see if he keeps the ride.

[Kevloaf]

I was responding to your comment regarding 'understanding of french courses'.

As for the Diane I don't believe he got the filly settled and racing on an even keel in the early stages and as for the finish to my eyes the other jockeys fighting out the finish looked stronger in the saddle than he did. If he had gone down by 3-4 lengths then it wouldn't have been worth mentioning but a change of jockey could easily make 1/2 length difference. Perhaps she will go for the Vermeille? It will be interesting to see if he keeps the ride.

Be a huge shock if to lose the ride wouldn't it?

Beaten 0.5L in a Group 1

"In touch, ridden to chase leaders over 2f out, every chance from 1 1/2f out, kept on well, just held"

I appreciate we all see the races differently (and I haven't bothered to go back and watch) but as a backer on the day I don't remember thinking the jockey had cost me the race there... on another day it could have been different, but I'd be surprised if he didn't "keep the ride".


I also don't know the ins and outs of the operation in France, but I assume Crowley wouldn't be first pick when it's a French trained horse for those owners? Happy to be corrected though.

[Saxon Warrior]

I thought Raabihah didnt get the breaks in the straight, having had a good position throughout the race, up til then.

This may have been because she is more a 12F horse, and didnt have the speed (or experience) to avoid the bit of trouble she had getting a clear run.

She wasnt unlucky, just unable to take advantage of a good position, and i would think that she will improve a lot for 12F and a couple more races.

She was the most inexperienced filly involved in the finish (only had two prior runs).

Her breeding screams 12F, being by Sea the Stars out of an unraced mare, who's mother was Eswarah (Epsom Oaks winner) and who's grandmother was Midway Lady (Epsom Oaks winner).

She may run again in the next two months, but the plan could be Prix Vermeille then Arc.

[Kevloaf]

Sort of reading between the lines but it sounded like Aidan thinks Love will come here perhaps missing the St Leger as their are Breeders Cup targets for a good sum of money available....

[Saxon Warrior]

Sort of reading between the lines but it sounded like Aidan thinks Love will come here perhaps missing the St Leger as their are Breeders Cup targets for a good sum of money available....

If she is fit and well, the weekend before the St Leger, Love could well get an entry in it.
They don't like leaving chances untaken, when their horses are thriving.