2024 Novice Chasers

[Exar Essay]

I'm still yet to find anyone who can make a case for him to be the mid-150's+ chaser he's have to be to win a NH Chase. At best I'd have him at 144. If anything worthy rated in the 140's turns up at Naas there's a good chance he gets turned over. If not the hype will continue and make the price for others. He's as short as 4/1 in places for the race, which is possibly the worst antepost odds I remember seeing at the Festival.

I agree he shouldn't be the price he is. But the problem, to an extent, is the Antepost market and bookies unwillingness to push a horse out. Forget the 4/1, that's just shocking. But he was cut to 7/1 recently at a time when the market was lacking a good fav. Everyone wants to be on the Mullins hot pot and it seemed to be between him and Nick Rockett. Minella Cocooner had just run poorly at Christmas and Patrick, I think it was, said he was too free for a NHC. So people arrived at Embassy Gardens or Nick Rockett and both were cut to that sort of price. Nick Rockett was still a maiden and hadn't qualified at that point (still hasn't qualified) which is why he remained a little bigger. In a market that contained those two, Three Card Brag, Favori De Champdou, and Salvador Ziggy as the principals, I thought 7/1 was fair enough, if not a little skinny.

But then Meetingofthewaters becomes an option for Willie and has better form in the book that EG. And then Flooring Porter and Corbetts Cross become likely runners in the NHC. And then Minella Cocooner puts his hat back in the ring as Patrick's ride ... and at no point do the bookies push him back out. And he's not an 7/1 poke in that market.

[Lobos]

Danny Mullins said Embassy looks the most suited of all Willie's to the NHC so you wonder whether He and Patrick have been having a chat.

[Quevega]

Embassy Gardens got a very similar record and path to Stattler, so looks a definite planned runner barring accidents.
Stattler disappointed in the Bartlett also (although he wasn't PU), and ended his hurdling career on a very similar mark (low 140's)

[Run4Home]

Paul said EG got lit up early in the Bartlett and race was over before it began for him , they had very high hopes going into the race with him but ruined his own race.

Unless there is a big u-turn Patrick won't ride Minella C in the race imo. Literally wasn't in the conversation all year as a potential (but he did settle better the weekend) , a horse they think can be that free going would be likely too big risk for him to take to jump on on the day.

[riccirich]

Paul said EG got lit up early in the Bartlett and race was over before it began for him , they had very high hopes going into the race with him but ruined his own race.

Unless there is a big u-turn Patrick won't ride Minella C in the race imo. Literally wasn't in the conversation all year as a potential (but he did settle better the weekend) , a horse they think can be that free going would be likely too big risk for him to take to jump on on the day.

Do you think that means minella cocooner won't run in the race, or would you say that he could run but just likely won't be Patrick's ride?

[Istabraq]

Paul said EG got lit up early in the Bartlett and race was over before it began for him , they had very high hopes going into the race with him but ruined his own race.

Unless there is a big u-turn Patrick won't ride Minella C in the race imo. Literally wasn't in the conversation all year as a potential (but he did settle better the weekend) , a horse they think can be that free going would be likely too big risk for him to take to jump on on the day.

Always worries me when pilots say a horse got lit up as that's a mental weakness that could happen again at any time.
They can teach horses to jump and run faster but they can't help psychologically, some will naturally calm down with age others just never do.
One day it will all click into place and he'll look a star but I couldn't get serious about him...

[Studfarm254]

Danny Mullins said Embassy looks the most suited of all Willie's to the NHC so you wonder whether He and Patrick have been having a chat.

Form in graded races is 5,PU,6. Also doesn’t seem to like going left-handed. Given its shaping up to be the best NHC I can remember, I can easily put a line through EG, see yee!

[Run4Home]

Do you think that means minella cocooner won't run in the race, or would you say that he could run but just likely won't be Patrick's ride?

All to play for at DRF in terms of the browns runners and how one of 2 of the other NHC candidates run then before they figure how to split them up I would say.

My guess is he might go Browns but that's just a guess and as I say nothing will be decided for a long while with them.

[darlojim]

All to play for at DRF in terms of the browns runners and how one of 2 of the other NHC candidates run then before they figure how to split them up I would say.

My guess is he might go Browns but that's just a guess and as I say nothing will be decided for a long while with them.

You havent heard if both Grangeclare and F2F are intended runners in the flogas have you R4H?

[Run4Home]

You havent heard if both Grangeclare and F2F are intended runners in the flogas have you R4H?

FTF is a def. runner
Haven't heard on GW but assume he would

[Lobos]

Salvador Ziggy straight to Cheltenham for either BANC or NHC.

[TigerRolllllll]

Salvador Ziggy straight to Cheltenham for either BANC or NHC.

He’s got zip all chance in Browns? But guess what does Gordon have for it? Favori poss best?

[Lobos]

He’s got zip all chance in Browns? But guess what does Gordon have for it? Favori poss best?

Wouldn't say he has zip all chance. Ignoring his US run, which is very easy to do, and he was pretty impressive on his other runs. I'd still favour him going NHC but BANC can't be dismissed.

[Lobos]

He’s got zip all chance in Browns? But guess what does Gordon have for it? Favori poss best?

He did say don't give up on Three Card Brag

[Benjy23]

He’s got zip all chance in Browns? But guess what does Gordon have for it? Favori poss best?

Favori surely more a NHC type as well. Only race he'd have a chance in also.