2024 Novice Chasers

[Black Dog]

I couldn't agree with this more.
I have today placed a sizeable bet for the turners NRNB, i haven't put it in my diary because i don't think it's worth me doing it anymore
It makes total sense
But i'd not fancy him for the banc, for many reasons. and flooring porter isnt one of them.

On another note if the french horse is such a monster, how can you be so dismissive of the king george?

I'm also in the Turners camp for Hermes allen, he's more versatile than Stay Away Fay and I think Paul will likely split them. I'm sure Harry would want them split!!!
Don't give up on the diary mate it's always a good read,and your confidence in your selections is second only to Lobos .Its out of the box thinking that makes this forum second to none,and you're one of the many on here capable of that.Not everyone will agree with you, as is only right,but you shouldn't be put off. Keep up the good work.

[Frankely My Dear]

Would Knappers Hill not sway Nicholas to send Hermes to the BANC? He seems more fitting to the Turners and has hit the right notes trend-wise so far. Not at my desk so can't expand on that currently but my spreadsheet shows plenty of green for KH. Could lead to Stay Away Fay running in the Gold Cup...

[Carnage at Taunton]

Would Knappers Hill not sway Nicholas to send Hermes to the BANC? He seems more fitting to the Turners and has hit the right notes trend-wise so far. Not at my desk so can't expand on that currently but my spreadsheet shows plenty of green for KH. Could lead to Stay Away Fay running in the Gold Cup...

KH had a setback and likely out of the Festival.
Can’t see SAF going anywhere but BANC, and HA will be kept apart from him.
Hope HA goes Turners, but would not be shocked if he was saved for Aintree.

[Jrow]

I know Willie spouts a lot of rubbish, but he has said that GW could actually drop down to the minimum trip. Does anyone think Garlic Warrior could end up in the Arkle? willie doesnt have a stand out currently, FV will end up in the turners and I cant see him running GW against FV. I suppose Leopardstown will reveal all. I can see GW running in, and winning the irish arkle.

[Frankely My Dear]

KH had a setback and likely out of the Festival.
Can’t see SAF going anywhere but BANC, and HA will be kept apart from him.
Hope HA goes Turners, but would not be shocked if he was saved for Aintree.

Ah had forgotten about that. My pocket wants SAF in the BANC so hopefully that's playing out

[Istabraq]

Ah had forgotten about that. My pocket wants SAF in the BANC so hopefully that's playing out

Has Stay Away Fay's destination ever been anything else ?
I thought he was certain to go that way a long time ago and Nicholls even came out and said it after Exeter is memory serves right.
He has everything you need for a BANC, bar injury he is surely 100% certain to land here....

[DenmanSacre]

It's been mentioned a fair few times about Willie moving Gaelic down to the Arkle. That's only happening IMO if Gaelic beats Marine Nationale in the Irish Arkle and I don't think it's that likely he even runs in that race. The Scilly Isles over 2m4 would be the perfect race for Gaelic pre Cheltenham.

Would he also give up an odds on favourite in one race to then be longer odds in a more competitive race, on a course less likely to suit Gaelic? I know Ricci doesn't really have a day but would you be happy as an owner that your horse is moving to a race you're less likely to win so Willie can try and win 2 races and ultimately may end up losing both instead of winning one.

FV will go to the Irish Arkle and instead of holding him up, just let him bowl along in front. He isn't a quickener, he's just a galloper so let him gallop on. That's what he's always been but Willie has the rose tinted glasses on when he looks at FV and thinks he's the next coming of Arkle. Just play to his actual strengths and not what you want the horse to be. They'll point to his DRF loss last year but he went a suicidal pace for a few furlongs and paid for it. If he loses comprehensively against Marine Nationale, then the owners should be asking to move him up for the Turners, even if that means he's going against Gaelic. If Willie doesn't have a horse for the Arkle, which he probably doesn't as Marine looked very good on debut, then so be it. Go and win the Turners instead.

[ComplyOrDie]

I know Willie spouts a lot of rubbish, but he has said that GW could actually drop down to the minimum trip. Does anyone think Garlic Warrior could end up in the Arkle? willie doesnt have a stand out currently, FV will end up in the turners and I cant see him running GW against FV. I suppose Leopardstown will reveal all. I can see GW running in, and winning the irish arkle.

I can see Facile Vega with Gaelic Warrior in the Turners, personally. I think he'd rather take a Turners win than worry about what Marine Nationale is doing in the Arkle, besides, he still has three or four darts to play in that race anyway (Mister Policeman, Il Etait Temps, Hercule Du Seuil, Sharjah & potentially Blood Destiny), now I'm not saying any of them come close to beating Marine Nationale on all known form, but it takes one mistake from MN and one of them could take advantage.

Personally think it will be 2 or 3 in each of the Arkle, Turners & BANC for Willie this season. He has so many options, he has to run them somewhere, unless he can sweet talk the owners to wait for either Aintree, Punchestown or Fairyhouse.

It wouldn't surprise me one bit if Facile Vega beat Gaelic Warrior in the Turners, either! 7/1 NRNB vs 8/11 NRNB is a hell of a play, based on their individual hurdles form, IMO.

[jack1092]

Would Knappers Hill not sway Nicholas to send Hermes to the BANC? He seems more fitting to the Turners and has hit the right notes trend-wise so far. Not at my desk so can't expand on that currently but my spreadsheet shows plenty of green for KH. Could lead to Stay Away Fay running in the Gold Cup...

By doing this Nicholls would be much more likely to have zero winners.

No chance he's said all along. Stay Away Fay BANC.

He's not one to swap things about if things run smoothly. Knappers and Hermes are decent, but let's be realistic, they will be fitting around their no.1 chance.

[Runragged]

Has Stay Away Fay's destination ever been anything else ?
I thought he was certain to go that way a long time ago and Nicholls even came out and said it after Exeter is memory serves right.
He has everything you need for a BANC, bar injury he is surely 100% certain to land here....

There is the small possibility he goes Gold Cup, probably based on certain circumstances happening such as GDC getting injured and SAF winning well in open class. Suggested that the longer trip and new course would suit the horse better also than the old course and BANC trip. Realistically it's probably still only a 1-2% chance he winds up in the GC though.

[Lobos]

Apple Away set for BANC.

Step back in trip under consideration for Giovanni.

[Frankely My Dear]

Giovanco bets cashed. Gaelic drifting slightly for the Turners, any known or suspected reason? I have him as the winner but this always being the bridesmaid at Cheltenham is making me windy, especially with a good cash out option

[Istabraq]

There is the small possibility he goes Gold Cup, probably based on certain circumstances happening such as GDC getting injured and SAF winning well in open class. Suggested that the longer trip and new course would suit the horse better also than the old course and BANC trip. Realistically it's probably still only a 1-2% chance he winds up in the GC though.

I've been following NH racing for 35+ years and most seasons hear that good novices will go Gold Cup and it never makes sense.
Possibly when you have a vastly experienced hurdler taking to fences late it might but only because their racing experience will be on a par/better than everything else in the line up, but sending a horse with half a dozen starts to a race like the Gold Cup is racing suicide and I can't imagine anyone associated with the horse is stupid enough to consider it.
People will point to Coneygree who was the exception albeit with exceptional circumstances....

[Lobos]

Giovanco bets cashed. Gaelic drifting slightly for the Turners, any known or suspected reason? I have him as the winner but this always being the bridesmaid at Cheltenham is making me windy, especially with a good cash out option

Is he drifting?? Probably deserves to be a much bigger price regardless on what he's achieved at Cheltenham.

[Lobos]

Giovanco bets cashed. Gaelic drifting slightly for the Turners, any known or suspected reason? I have him as the winner but this always being the bridesmaid at Cheltenham is making me windy, especially with a good cash out option

Is he drifting?? Probably deserves to be a much bigger price regardless on what he's achieved at Cheltenham.