2024 Novice Chasers

[Exar Essay]

B365 have greyed out my Indiana Dream bet for the Turners. Anyone heard anything? It’s often an ominous sign.

Big spike on BFX a couple of days ago in the BANC which rung alarm bells. 2 + 2 may make 4 on this occasion.

[Benjy23]

B365 have greyed out my Indiana Dream bet for the Turners. Anyone heard anything? It’s often an ominous sign.

Been very weak on exchanges for both Turners and BANC.

No news though of course.

[Lobos]

Willie did say he was very fragile

[charlie]

The Turners market looks ripe for a cut up. When looking at the top 15 in the market it's fairly easy to remove 70% of the field based on trip, jumping ability, cheltenham suitability, skipping cheltenham and out for the season. Hills (NRMB) have priced it:

Gaelic Warrior - I think he's sure to go here but he needs to go right handed and I just cant back him at 4/5
Il Est Francais - skipping Cheltenham in favour of a French campaign and is a big drifter on the exchange
Grangeclare West - certain to be going 3m or even further, with the NHC looking more likely than this
Facile Vega - I backed him for this a while ago but he's looking more and more like a busted flush.
Fact To File - market is screaming 3m with 14/1 available here and as short as 4/1 for the BANC so will prob go 3m
Indiana Dream - the exchange vibes suggests he's met with a setback and will be out for the season

Interesting that of the top 6, 5 are trained by Willie Mullins. If he's stubborn with FV and persists on 2m then I cannot see any of the others going, but he will probably have more than one runner.

Inthepocket - Confirmed out for the season and if he came back he'd go Arkle, no where else
Found A Fifty - 8/1
Corbetts Cross - His jumping just isn't good enough to dine at the top table, for all he has a serious engine.
Blood Destiny - 12/1
Il Etait Temps - Looks a 2 miler and probably not good enough for a race like this
Mister Policeman - Huge question marks over his ability but if he pulls it together next time out all chat is about Arkle
Hermes Allen - Is interesting but I feel like Paul may wait for Aintree
Grey Dawning - no way near good enough
Ginnys Destiny - no way near good enough

What do with think of the horses left in bold? Will Willie be in a rush to take on MN in the Arkle with BD? Same applies for Gordon with FAF.

[Quevega]

The spike for Indiana Dream in the BANC was for just under three pounds.

In the Turners it was less than fifteen pounds in three small chunks.

Bet365 will grey cash out these days when specific punters or several punters cash bets out on a horse.

These suggest that it was lack of entries merchants, who ? don;t get me wrong are often on the right lines.
But at that level of horse, i.e the funky outsider, there is very little money being exchanged right now.
Plenty of horses have nothing on the lay side.

For a horse that is fragile, that ran on the 9th December I'd say it's more than reasonable that he didn't have entries over Xmas myself.
But we'll see.

[Rooster Booster]

The spike for Indiana Dream in the BANC was for just under three pounds.

In the Turners it was less than fifteen pounds in three small chunks.

Bet365 will grey cash out these days when specific punters or several punters cash bets out on a horse.

These suggest that it was lack of entries merchants, who ? don;t get me wrong are often on the right lines.
But at that level of horse, i.e the funky outsider, there is very little money being exchanged right now.
Plenty of horses have nothing on the lay side.

For a horse that is fragile, that ran on the 9th December I'd say it's more than reasonable that he didn't have entries over Xmas myself.
But we'll see.

Exactly how I see it…definitely living up to your Moniker today

[Craigy14]

The Turners market looks ripe for a cut up. When looking at the top 15 in the market it's fairly easy to remove 70% of the field based on trip, jumping ability, cheltenham suitability, skipping cheltenham and out for the season. Hills (NRMB) have priced it:

Gaelic Warrior - I think he's sure to go here but he needs to go right handed and I just cant back him at 4/5
Il Est Francais - skipping Cheltenham in favour of a French campaign and is a big drifter on the exchange
Grangeclare West - certain to be going 3m or even further, with the NHC looking more likely than this
Facile Vega - I backed him for this a while ago but he's looking more and more like a busted flush.
Fact To File - market is screaming 3m with 14/1 available here and as short as 4/1 for the BANC so will prob go 3m
Indiana Dream - the exchange vibes suggests he's met with a setback and will be out for the season

Interesting that of the top 6, 5 are trained by Willie Mullins. If he's stubborn with FV and persists on 2m then I cannot see any of the others going, but he will probably have more than one runner.

Inthepocket - Confirmed out for the season and if he came back he'd go Arkle, no where else
Found A Fifty - 8/1
Corbetts Cross - His jumping just isn't good enough to dine at the top table, for all he has a serious engine.
Blood Destiny - 12/1
Il Etait Temps - Looks a 2 miler and probably not good enough for a race like this
Mister Policeman - Huge question marks over his ability but if he pulls it together next time out all chat is about Arkle
Hermes Allen - Is interesting but I feel like Paul may wait for Aintree
Grey Dawning - no way near good enough
Ginnys Destiny - no way near good enough

What do with think of the horses left in bold? Will Willie be in a rush to take on MN in the Arkle with BD? Same applies for Gordon with FAF.

Definitely think there is a play somewhere it’s just where. I’ve been mulling over the 2 below as I think one of them goes Turners if fit and good enough.

If Fact To File and Indiana Dream are both being aimed at the festival would their ages have an impact on destination?

Indiana Dream being so lightly raced and only 6, could he be Turners bound with Gaelic Warrior. A hard 3m1f for a horse that has obviously had some issues would maybe sway it. That would leave Fact To File as first (or second) string to Grangeclare West depending what happens from here to the festival.

[nortonscoin200]

The Turners market looks ripe for a cut up. When looking at the top 15 in the market it's fairly easy to remove 70% of the field based on trip, jumping ability, cheltenham suitability, skipping cheltenham and out for the season. Hills (NRMB) have priced it:

Gaelic Warrior - I think he's sure to go here but he needs to go right handed and I just cant back him at 4/5
Il Est Francais - skipping Cheltenham in favour of a French campaign and is a big drifter on the exchange
Grangeclare West - certain to be going 3m or even further, with the NHC looking more likely than this
Facile Vega - I backed him for this a while ago but he's looking more and more like a busted flush.
Fact To File - market is screaming 3m with 14/1 available here and as short as 4/1 for the BANC so will prob go 3m
Indiana Dream - the exchange vibes suggests he's met with a setback and will be out for the season

Interesting that of the top 6, 5 are trained by Willie Mullins. If he's stubborn with FV and persists on 2m then I cannot see any of the others going, but he will probably have more than one runner.

Inthepocket - Confirmed out for the season and if he came back he'd go Arkle, no where else
Found A Fifty - 8/1
Corbetts Cross - His jumping just isn't good enough to dine at the top table, for all he has a serious engine.
Blood Destiny - 12/1
Il Etait Temps - Looks a 2 miler and probably not good enough for a race like this
Mister Policeman - Huge question marks over his ability but if he pulls it together next time out all chat is about Arkle
Hermes Allen - Is interesting but I feel like Paul may wait for Aintree
Grey Dawning - no way near good enough
Ginnys Destiny - no way near good enough

What do with think of the horses left in bold? Will Willie be in a rush to take on MN in the Arkle with BD? Same applies for Gordon with FAF.

I like your premise charlie - seems more than likely we'll have a(nother) small field Turners lacking most of the current market leaders.

The number of runners in the Turners in the last 10 years reads (latest first): 7, 4, 8, 12, 10, 10, 8, 9, 8, 12.

So it's probably odds-on we have less than 10 going to post which should provide a decent each way betting opportunity as long as Gaelic Warrior props up the market.

And with this scenario in mind I think you may be a little hasty in writing off Ginny's Destiny.

(NB: Please don't feel I'm being critical - loved the post and just interested in the discussion)

As a two-time course winner over the mid-trip he hasn't done much wrong since a poor run on his chasing debut a fortnight after joining Paul in October.

His 3 chase rprs are: 116, 147 and 153.

Last season Stage Star's best rpr after 3 chase chase runs was 148. He then hit 161 on trials day and 158 in the Turners.

Runner-up Notlongtillmay managed 152 after 3 chase runs and was given 155 for the Turners.

Faller Galopin Des Champs and lucky winner Bob Olinger were certainly a class above Ginny's Destiny in 2022.

But 2021 Turners winner Chantry House had rprs of 159, 144 and 153 prior to the Fez.

Runner up Fusil Raffles had 151 and 155.

And 3rd placed Asterior Forlange was 153, P, P, 150.

Going further back Ginny's Destiny had better form figures than 2020 runner up Melon and 2019 third Mengli Khan while 2017 winner Yorkhill managed 153 and 150 before his success.

So he's got to be in the shake-up in a non-vintage year imo.

I imagine Paul will run Ginny's Destiny on trials day and that performance will dictate whether he goes for the Turners or the Plate which I also fancy him for.

But if the Turners field cuts up as you suggest and seems likely I wouldn't be surprised if Paul gives it a shot in view of Gaelic Warrior's aversion to racing left handed and the lack of any real depth in the division.

Regarding Blood Destiny, I'd put him below Ginny's Destiny in the pecking order on the basis that he was beaten 27 lengths in the Triumph on his only visit to Cheltenham and has so far hit only a 141rpr from one chase against just 3 rivals. I'd say he's a bet on potential and the possibility of Willie using him as a bit of GW insurance rather than what he's achieved.

Imo Found A Fifty has much more solid claims but he's never run at Cheltenham and according to the RP report (I haven't watched the replay) he "jumped right throughout" lto at Leopardstown.

So it promises to be a pretty chaotic Turners if Gaelic Warrior and Found A Fifty are in the line-up.

If Paul's sends Ginny's this way he'll surely aim to make the running and is such a good jumper it'll put pressure on anything going off to the right.

And with the weakness at the head of the market you've tempted me to dip my toe in again to top up GINNY'S DESTINY with 1pt each way at 33-1.

[Benjy23]

The spike for Indiana Dream in the BANC was for just under three pounds.

In the Turners it was less than fifteen pounds in three small chunks.

Bet365 will grey cash out these days when specific punters or several punters cash bets out on a horse.

These suggest that it was lack of entries merchants, who ? don;t get me wrong are often on the right lines.
But at that level of horse, i.e the funky outsider, there is very little money being exchanged right now.
Plenty of horses have nothing on the lay side.

For a horse that is fragile, that ran on the 9th December I'd say it's more than reasonable that he didn't have entries over Xmas myself.
But we'll see.

It's not big values because there's little liquidity but...

He was trading around 18 on the exchange for both the Turners and the BANC. He's now 35 to back with not a penny available to lay for the Turners. And 32 to back for the BANC, where you could lay a fiver at 55s if you were certain he was out to be fair...

It's not a spike that's returned to anything like where it started. Which I'd appreciate may have been pushed out slightly due to the shortening of others but not doubled in price.

I hope there's nothing amiss, as a backer, but it's more than you've made it sound. Particularly to those unfamiliar with the exchange. Even those values you mentioned are back values not liability, which I know you're aware of but others may not be...

[charlie]

I like your premise charlie

Cheers pal (haven't quoted the whole post but read it)

Ive added Blood Destiny for the Turners at 36 on the exchange as I think thats an outrageously good price IMO

I'll have another look at Ginny's Destiny although not listed on the exchange?

GD is by Yeats which I love love love with a view to Cheltenham. Farms cheltenham winners so thats interesting.

Re BD the triumph run was obviously disappointing but that debut was superb. GD ran to a debut RPR of 116 before hitting 147 so BD isn't far off that now off one run so I'd have him obviously the less experienced of the two but perhaps with a higher ceiling.

[That Horse]

Imo Found A Fifty has much more solid claims but he's never run at Cheltenham and according to the RP report (I haven't watched the replay) he "jumped right throughout" lto at Leopardstown.

He did jump right at most if not all his fences when I watched it live. It was putting me off him for Cheltenham and I've no interest in backing him for the Arkle. I've kept my Turners bet for him as he might get away with it more over a longer distance and who knows what type of pace it will be run at plus it might be ok if he's up the inside of Gaelic Warrior given how he also jumps

[darlojim]

Ive added Blood Destiny for the Turners at 36 on the exchange as I think thats an outrageously good price IMO

You think he'll run both Gaelic and Blood in the same race Charlie? Both could easily cut eachothers throats up front no?

[That Horse]

Blood Destiny

Are you backing him for win purposes? I read what you've written re his debut rating but just the whole five year old season of a Triumph hurdler gives me caution in backing him. Of course BD isn't to blame for all those other ex Triumph horses failing to win the next season but it is a trend nonetheless.

EDIT - of course you're backing him for win purposes, just re-read you have an exchange price, d'oh!

[Rooster Booster]

I like your premise charlie - seems more than likely we'll have a(nother) small field Turners lacking most of the current market leaders.

The number of runners in the Turners in the last 10 years reads (latest first): 7, 4, 8, 12, 10, 10, 8, 9, 8, 12.

So it's probably odds-on we have less than 10 going to post which should provide a decent each way betting opportunity as long as Gaelic Warrior props up the market.

And with this scenario in mind I think you may be a little hasty in writing off Ginny's Destiny.

(NB: Please don't feel I'm being critical - loved the post and just interested in the discussion)

As a two-time course winner over the mid-trip he hasn't done much wrong since a poor run on his chasing debut a fortnight after joining Paul in October.

His 3 chase rprs are: 116, 147 and 153.

Last season Stage Star's best rpr after 3 chase chase runs was 148. He then hit 161 on trials day and 158 in the Turners.

Runner-up Notlongtillmay managed 152 after 3 chase runs and was given 155 for the Turners.

Faller Galopin Des Champs and lucky winner Bob Olinger were certainly a class above Ginny's Destiny in 2022.

But 2021 Turners winner Chantry House had rprs of 159, 144 and 153 prior to the Fez.

Runner up Fusil Raffles had 151 and 155.

And 3rd placed Asterior Forlange was 153, P, P, 150.

Going further back Ginny's Destiny had better form figures than 2020 runner up Melon and 2019 third Mengli Khan while 2017 winner Yorkhill managed 153 and 150 before his success.

So he's got to be in the shake-up in a non-vintage year imo.

I imagine Paul will run Ginny's Destiny on trials day and that performance will dictate whether he goes for the Turners or the Plate which I also fancy him for.

But if the Turners field cuts up as you suggest and seems likely I wouldn't be surprised if Paul gives it a shot in view of Gaelic Warrior's aversion to racing left handed and the lack of any real depth in the division.

Regarding Blood Destiny, I'd put him below Ginny's Destiny in the pecking order on the basis that he was beaten 27 lengths in the Triumph on his only visit to Cheltenham and has so far hit only a 141rpr from one chase against just 3 rivals. I'd say he's a bet on potential and the possibility of Willie using him as a bit of GW insurance rather than what he's achieved.

Imo Found A Fifty has much more solid claims but he's never run at Cheltenham and according to the RP report (I haven't watched the replay) he "jumped right throughout" lto at Leopardstown.

So it promises to be a pretty chaotic Turners if Gaelic Warrior and Found A Fifty are in the line-up.

If Paul's sends Ginny's this way he'll surely aim to make the running and is such a good jumper it'll put pressure on anything going off to the right.

And with the weakness at the head of the market you've tempted me to dip my toe in again to top up GINNY'S DESTINY with 1pt each way at 33-1.

You haven’t referenced Grey Dawning who was conceding weight and made a right howler 2 out that cost him lengths. The pair may be re opposing at Warwick . He is available at 40s. Perhaps he will step up to the BANC or do you have other reasons for highlighting Ginnys but not Grey?

[Exar Essay]

The machine on the money again. Indiana Dream OFTS along with Inthepocket as confirmed by Frank Berry on Nick Luck's podcast.