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2023 Mares Hurdle

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  • Originally posted by Craigy14 View Post

    I think the running to 150 is a massive stretch FF surely?
    Why?

    Given 9lb to a 144 mare been beaten 4 and a bit lengths

    Finished upsides a 140 mare giving her 12lb

    About 150 is how you have to rate it unless you think nothing has run near its mark

    Comment


    • That Brandy Love run was a proper 'see what you want to see' performance.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

        "obviously"

        We'll see


        Nothing wrong with the 10/1 NRNB Mares Hurdle or 8/1 NRNB Coral
        No, if she got a stone bruise and missed declaring for the Mares so they then run in the Coral cup a day later then if you'd be happy to be on her at 8-1, I agree.

        There's never much wrong with NRNB.

        Unless the price vs the actual chances of winning don't really stack up.

        Brandy Love would likely have to put up a better performance in the Coral cup than the Mares hurdle to win off a mark effectively of about 152 - 155. Possibly more, as that's me anticipating between 0-3lbs UK tax.

        Not impossible but not an 8-1 chance IMO.
        But value is part opinion, so I can see why some would do this.

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        • Her jumping under pressure worries me.

          She was absolutely fine going normal race pace but out came the left handed thing and awkward jumping once it got to the 'actual' racing.

          I think she'll come on plenty for the run, and would absolutely expect her to overturn the form with Queens Brook at the festival, but will it all be enough with Honey and Maries Rock in there?

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          • Honeysuckle wins this easily for me and she hasn't regressed imo. I need to get more on.

            Epatante and BL would be massive winners for me so still hope one of them wins if Honey does flop.

            Marie's Rock looks to have improved but I still don't think she is anywhere near Honey and likely will be going to the Stayers.

            Clutching at tiny straws that Theatre Glory could still go Coral Cup but very unlikely. Her and Love Envoi not close to Honeysuckle in my opinion.

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            • Willie will feel that’s mission accomplished for brandy love. Travelled well and jumped better than previous runs right handed, and just blew up between last 2 flights. Not given a hard time by any stretch.
              I’ve topped up on her. I believe her current odds are far too big.
              put her spot on for the mares IMO

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              • Originally posted by YoungHustler View Post
                Honeysuckle wins this easily for me and she hasn't regressed imo. I need to get more on.

                Epatante and BL would be massive winners for me so still hope one of them wins if Honey does flop.

                Marie's Rock looks to have improved but I still don't think she is anywhere near Honey and likely will be going to the Stayers.

                Clutching at tiny straws that Theatre Glory could still go Coral Cup but very unlikely. Her and Love Envoi not close to Honeysuckle in my opinion.
                Honey has run to low 150s both runs this season

                Definitely not the horse she was

                Good chance of winning but far from a certainty with maries rock and brandy love hopefully lining up

                Comment


                • Originally posted by charlie View Post
                  That Brandy Love run was a proper 'see what you want to see' performance.
                  Yep the camps were firmly established pre race and nobody from what I can see is about to jump camp...if there are folks jumping camp it would be really interesting to hear from them.

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                  • Originally posted by FinalFurlong91 View Post

                    Why?

                    Given 9lb to a 144 mare been beaten 4 and a bit lengths

                    Finished upsides a 140 mare giving her 12lb

                    About 150 is how you have to rate it unless you think nothing has run near its mark
                    Aye possibly, on reflection it might not be rated far off 150.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by DenmanSacre View Post

                      There's the 5 lengths.

                      Bookies increasing her odds is a bit of a surprise. Did they expect her to wipe the floor with them off that weight and first run of the season.

                      She's still the most likely winner for me.

                      Epatante is past it. Honeysuckle is past it. Brandy Love has beat Love Envoi already. Maries Rock didn't beat Queen's Brook far last year and probably goes the Stayers. The rest won't be in it.
                      After you get past Shewearsitwell in the market I agree, the rest wont be in it, but you're being very dismissive of the others IMO.

                      Hard to watch Epatante last time out and buy into her being past it IMO. She's won hard held taking the absolute piss posting an RPR higher than Brandy Love has ever run to. Honeysuckle wouldn't be racing again if she was past it, or if they felt she couldn't win. 2nd to State Man didn't look likely at one point but she showed that steely determination and we know categorically that she handles Cheltenham and runs well there. Brandy Love has never been to Cheltenham. Yes, Love Envoi lost to BL last year, but BL went to Fairyhouse fresh, not after the back of a tough festival. Love Envoi has definitely improved whether you are with her or against her, and comes with zero quirks, which BL is full of. Maries Rock has won 4 on the bounce and that run LTO was massive - way better than anything BL has ever done. She's 2/3 at Cheltenham and even though the stayers is a possibility, 'probably goes' is a big stretch IMO. Shewearsitwell deserves a mention also. 2/2, looks a better horse this year and BL hasn't run to a higher level than her yet.

                      BL has 4 proper decent rivals there and I don't think they can be played down back vs their own sex.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by DenmanSacre View Post

                        There's the 5 lengths.

                        Bookies increasing her odds is a bit of a surprise. Did they expect her to wipe the floor with them off that weight and first run of the season.

                        She's still the most likely winner for me.

                        Epatante is past it. Honeysuckle is past it. Brandy Love has beat Love Envoi already. Maries Rock didn't beat Queen's Brook far last year and probably goes the Stayers. The rest won't be in it.
                        I think on their respective runs this season that I would agree that Honey is not as good, but I would not agree re Epatante.
                        No idea re Marie’s, but my feeling is it’s ground deciding her race
                        Not sure on my most likely winner but I don’t think we saw her today.

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                        • Will they drop her after that ?? Maybe the Coral Cup could be a viable option? Doubt there's much in it re Prize Money either. She's already got the Black Type so no worries there. Ummmmmm

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                          • Originally posted by Lobos View Post
                            Will they drop her after that ?? Maybe the Coral Cup could be a viable option? Doubt there's much in it re Prize Money either. She's already got the Black Type so no worries there. Ummmmmm
                            NO they won't.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Lobos View Post
                              Will they drop her after that ?? Maybe the Coral Cup could be a viable option? Doubt there's much in it re Prize Money either. She's already got the Black Type so no worries there. Ummmmmm
                              If anything she'll go up from her 146

                              Comment


                              • Great post Charlie.

                                ​​​​​​Yep agree Q. Back in my box.

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